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BAWAG Group (BWAGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of BAWAG Group $126, price $206, upside -38.9%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN AT0000BAWAG2

BG BAWAG Group logo Broad data Oct 3, 2026

BAWAG Group

BWAGF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $125.73 · Strongly overvalued (−38.9%)
!Quality 46/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue YoY +142.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 43.3% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
✓Wide moat 66/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$210.11 $14.98 Fair Value $125.73 Jun 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.98 – $210.11 · fair‑value band $83.34 – $164.90 · the $205.72 price screens above the $125.73 fair value. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

BAWAG Group AG operates as a holding company for BAWAG P.S.K. Bank für Arbeit und Wirtschaft und Österreichische Postsparkasse Aktiengesellschaft that provides various banking products and services in Austria, Western Europe, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, North America, and internationally.

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BAWAG Group AG operates as a holding company for BAWAG P.S.K. Bank für Arbeit und Wirtschaft und Österreichische Postsparkasse Aktiengesellschaft that provides various banking products and services in Austria, Western Europe, Germany, Ireland, Switzerland, the Netherlands, North America, and internationally. It operates through Retail & SME; Corporates, Real Estate & Public Sector; and Treasury segments. The Retail & SME segment offers savings, payments, securities, cards and lending, and investment and insurance products and services; small business lending; factoring and leasing business; social housing activities; and auto, mobile, and real estate leasing, as well as consumer and mortgage loans. This segment also owns issues covered with retail assets and Wohnbaubank bonds. The Corporates, Real Estate & Public segment provides lending products; international real estate financing; corporate, mid-cap, and public lending; and other financial services. This segment also owns issues covered with corporate or public sector assets. The Treasury segment offers trading and investment services, such as group asset-liability management transactions, including secured and unsecured funding. The company serves retail, small business, corporate, real estate, and public sector customers. BAWAG Group AG is headquartered in Vienna, Austria.

Stock analysis

BAWAG Group (BWAGF) currently trades at $205.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.73, 38.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $112.49 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $205.72 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $47.37, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $83.34 (bear) to $164.90 (bull), the price of $205.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

BAWAG Group reported revenue of €4.0B in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound +41.4%/yr. Reported net income was €860M in FY2025, compounding +15.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $16.3B · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 3.67 · EPS (TTM) $11.93 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 21.3% · Return on equity 19.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −39%, BWAGF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $83.34 Fair Value $125.73 Bull $164.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.02 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $81.73 $103.22 $159.69 74
Gordon GGM $64.16 $133.40 $211.63 66
DDM Multi-Stage $64.16 $112.49 $140.01 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $64.16 $133.40 $211.63 66
DDM Multi-Stage $64.16 $112.49 $140.01 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $122.57 $163.42 $204.28 63
P/B Multiple $74.23 $98.98 $123.72 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $35.35 $47.37 $70.70 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $81.73 $103.22 $159.69 74

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 80
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.3% vs 10.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 29%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

BWAGF screens overvalued: fair value 39% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (32 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −37.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 19.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 43.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 60.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.13× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 3.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 7.44× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.7× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 78.00 SGD 40.39 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥40.69 ¥52.73 +30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €79.53 €77.12 −3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $11.05 $6.82 −38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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BAWAG Group · Fair Value
$125.73 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BAWAG Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BWAGF

Frequently asked questions

Is BAWAG Group (BWAGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $125.73 versus a price of $205.72, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BWAGF?
Our model-based fair value for BAWAG Group is $125.73 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $205.72.
What is the quality score of BWAGF?
BAWAG Group has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $125.73 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $83.34, optimistic scenario $164.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BAWAG Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $125.73, about −39% upside versus a price of $205.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $83.34, optimistic scenario $164.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
BAWAG Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does BAWAG Group pay a dividend?
BAWAG Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.12% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BAWAG Group it is $125.73 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $205.72. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BAWAG Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, BWAGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $205.72, fair value $125.73, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BWAGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($205.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($125.73). For BAWAG Group the two are $79.99 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BAWAG Group worth?
The market values BAWAG Group at about $16.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $205.72; our models calculate a fair value of $125.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BWAGF?
Our models span a range for BAWAG Group: cautious scenario $83.34, base $125.73, optimistic $164.90 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $205.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BWAGF?
BAWAG Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.2 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $125.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.2, P/S 7.4, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for BAWAG Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 19.0%, debt of 1.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BWAGF from its 52-week high?
BAWAG Group trades at $205.72, about 2% below its 52-week high of $210.11 and 75% above the low of $117.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $125.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BAWAG Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BAWAG Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $205.72, calculated fair value $125.73 (−39%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BWAGF calculated?
We run BAWAG Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $125.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. BAWAG Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $205.72. Our model-based fair value is $125.73, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BAWAG Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($164.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($83.34 to $164.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of BAWAG Group (BWAGF) come from?
Earnings per share at BAWAG Group grew +10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +16.2 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of BAWAG Group

How large is the market capitalisation of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The market capitalisation of BAWAG Group is $16.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BAWAG Group is 3.67 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Earnings per share at BAWAG Group are $11.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The dividend yield of BAWAG Group is 3.1% (payout 53.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The net margin of BAWAG Group is 21.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BAWAG Group is 19.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BAWAG Group is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
The operating margin of BAWAG Group is 60.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Revenue at BAWAG Group is growing +8.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +64.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BAWAG Group (BWAGF)?
Earnings per share at BAWAG Group are growing +18.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BAWAG Group (BWAGF) generate?
The free cash flow of BAWAG Group is −$1.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BAWAG Group (BWAGF) carry?
The net debt of BAWAG Group is $4.5B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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