Carlos Casado (CADO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Carlos Casado ARS 154, price ARS 538, upside -71.3%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 27.50 ARS – 653.50 ARS · fair‑value band 115.63 ARS – 184.50 ARS · the 538.00 ARS price screens above the 154.18 ARS fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Carlos Casado S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agricultural company in Latin America. The company is involved in the real estate construction and development; development and operation of land; production of soybean and corn; and livestock and breeding activities. The company was founded in 1883 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Stock analysis
Carlos Casado (CADO) currently trades at 538.00 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 154.18 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 248.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 568.93 ARS per share, and 1 of the 7 models we run sit above the 538.00 ARS price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 124.81 ARS, and 6 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 115.63 ARS (bear) to 184.50 ARS (bull), the price of 538.00 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Carlos Casado reported revenue of 14.8B ARS in FY2025 versus 1.1B ARS in FY2021, a compound +91.8%/yr. Reported net income was 888M ARS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 66.3B ARS (≈ $46.4M) · P/E ratio 73.5 · P/S ratio 4.39 · EPS (TTM) 7.19 ARS · Net margin 6.0% · Return on equity 5.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin 44.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at −71%, CADO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 115.63 ARSFair Value 154.18 ARSBull 184.50 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (5.28 ARS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +81.7% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+81.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ARS ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ARS: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+26.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−7% → −18%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−71% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth120% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)73.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)8.56× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA51.3× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carlos Casado Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CADO
Frequently asked questions
Is Carlos Casado (CADO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 154.18 ARS versus a price of 538.00 ARS, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CADO?
Our model-based fair value for Carlos Casado is 154.18 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 538.00 ARS.
What is the quality score of CADO?
Carlos Casado has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 154.18 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario 115.63 ARS, optimistic scenario 184.50 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlos Casado stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 154.18 ARS, about −71% upside versus a price of 538.00 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 115.63 ARS, optimistic scenario 184.50 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Carlos Casado reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 7.7B ARS (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlos Casado it is 154.18 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 538.00 ARS. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlos Casado stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CADO trades above its calculated fair value: price 538.00 ARS, fair value 154.18 ARS, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CADO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (538.00 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (154.18 ARS). For Carlos Casado the two are 383.82 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlos Casado worth?
The market values Carlos Casado at about 66.3B ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 538.00 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 154.18 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CADO?
Our models span a range for Carlos Casado: cautious scenario 115.63 ARS, base 154.18 ARS, optimistic 184.50 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 538.00 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CADO?
Carlos Casado trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 73.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 154.18 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 8.6, EV/EBITDA 51.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlos Casado (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CADO from its 52-week high?
Carlos Casado trades at 538.00 ARS, about 9% below its 52-week high of 591.00 ARS and 29% above the low of 418.00 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 154.18 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlos Casado?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlos Casado stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 538.00 ARS, calculated fair value 154.18 ARS (−71%), Quality Score 40/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CADO calculated?
We run Carlos Casado through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 154.18 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Carlos Casado itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 538.00 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 154.18 ARS, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlos Casado right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (184.50 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Carlos Casado
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The market capitalisation of Carlos Casado is 66.3B ARS (≈ $46.4M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlos Casado is 4.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Earnings per share at Carlos Casado are 7.19 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 73.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The net margin of Carlos Casado is 6.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlos Casado is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlos Casado is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlos Casado (CADO)?
The operating margin of Carlos Casado is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Revenue at Carlos Casado is growing +120% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlos Casado (CADO)?
Earnings per share at Carlos Casado are growing +233% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Carlos Casado (CADO) generate?
The free cash flow of Carlos Casado is −291M ARS (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Carlos Casado (CADO) carry?
The net debt of Carlos Casado is 12.7B ARS (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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