China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd $7.75, price $3.68, upside +110.9%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.68 – $28.45 · fair‑value band $5.71 – $9.91 · the $3.68 price screens below the $7.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells cement, concrete, aggregates, and related products and services in Mainland China. It operates through Cement, Concrete, and Aggregates and Others segments.
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China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and sells cement, concrete, aggregates, and related products and services in Mainland China. It operates through Cement, Concrete, and Aggregates and Others segments. The company also manufactures and sells engineered stones, natural stones, and other products. In addition, it engages in the excavation of limestone; and production, sale, and distribution of cement, clinker, and concrete. Further, the company is involved in the manufacture and sale of prefabricated construction materials; environmental protection engineering activities; mining of aggregates; trading of construction materials and steel pipes; property holding; marine transportation; warehouse management and fuel supply; and provision of building materials testing and consultancy services. Its products are used in the construction of infrastructure projects, such as railways, highways, subways, bridges, airports, ports, dams, and hydroelectric and nuclear power stations, as well as high-rise buildings, and suburban and rural area development. The company was formerly known as China Resources Cement Holdings Limited and changed its name to China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited in November 2023. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of CRH (Cement) Limited.
Stock analysis
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR (CARCY) currently trades at $3.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.75, implying the stock looks roughly 52.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $21.30 per share, and 18 of the 22 models we run sit above the $3.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.06, and 4 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.71 (bear) to $9.91 (bull), the price of $3.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR reported revenue of 22.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 44.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −15.1%/yr. Reported net income was 519M CNY in FY2025, compounding −49.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 0.27 · EPS (TTM) $0.3100 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 2.3% · Return on equity 0.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 111%, CARCY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.71Fair Value $7.75Bull $9.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2087 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.6% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−42.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−43.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−43.0% vs −9.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Compare China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Materials · 249 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+91.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−3.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper
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Is China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.75 versus a price of $3.68, about +111% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CARCY?
Our model-based fair value for China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is $7.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.68.
What is the quality score of CARCY?
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.75 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.71, optimistic scenario $9.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.75, about +111% upside versus a price of $3.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.71, optimistic scenario $9.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 20.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.93% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -6.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -10.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CARCY use?
Our models discount China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR that is -6.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR grew -10.7 % a year. The price currently implies -6.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR (-6.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 43.11 %: that much free cash flow China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR it is $7.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.68. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CARCY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.68, fair value $7.75, a gap of about +111% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.75). For China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR the two are $4.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR worth?
The market values China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.68; our models calculate a fair value of $7.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARCY?
Our models span a range for China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $5.71, base $7.75, optimistic $9.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CARCY?
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
What is the PEG ratio of CARCY?
The PEG ratio of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 1.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 0.0%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARCY from its 52-week high?
China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR trades at $3.68, about 47% below its 52-week high of $6.95 and at the low of $3.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value CRH plc, Holcim AG, Martin Marietta Materials, Inc, UltraTech Cement Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.68, calculated fair value $7.75 (+111%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARCY calculated?
We run China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR currently trades 53 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $3.68. Our model-based fair value is $7.75, about +111% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) come from?
Earnings per share at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR grew −16.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.3 %, EBIT margin −14.1 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The market capitalisation of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.27 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Earnings per share at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR are $0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The dividend yield of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.9% (payout 11.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The net margin of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 2.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 0.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
The operating margin of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is −3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Revenue at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is growing −9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY)?
Earnings per share at China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR are growing −85.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd (CARCY) carry?
The net debt of China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd ADR is 12.9B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026