Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Carlsberg A/S DKK 720, price DKK 1,025, upside -29.8%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Carlsberg A/S produces and markets beer, soft drinks, and other beverage products in Western Europe, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, India, and internationally. The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Stock analysis
Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) currently trades at kr 1,025, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 719.61, 29.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 769.21 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the kr 1,025 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 140.87, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 367.11 (bear) to kr 1,172 (bull), the price of kr 1,025 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Carlsberg A/S reported revenue of 89.1B DKK in FY2025 versus 66.6B DKK in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was 6.0B DKK in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 136B DKK (≈ $20.4B) · P/E ratio 24.5 · P/S ratio 1.64 · EPS (TTM) kr 44.89 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 20.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −30%, CARL-A screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 367.11Fair Value kr 719.61Bull kr 1,172
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 12.02 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.7% vs 4.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Denmark: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)14.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.13× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.88× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.50× · Pricier than median
P/FCF18.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG2.64× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 10
PAST (return on equity)82· sector 35
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)57· sector 65
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carlsberg A/S Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CARL-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 719.61 versus a price of kr 1,025, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CARL-A?
Our model-based fair value for Carlsberg A/S is kr 719.61 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 1,025.
What is the quality score of CARL-A?
Carlsberg A/S has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 719.61 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 367.11, optimistic scenario kr 1,172. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carlsberg A/S stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 719.61, about −30% upside versus a price of kr 1,025 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 367.11, optimistic scenario kr 1,172. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Carlsberg A/S reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 90.3B DKK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Carlsberg A/S pay a dividend?
Carlsberg A/S currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.83% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Carlsberg A/S would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.8 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CARL-A use?
Our models discount Carlsberg A/S at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.65, country premium for Denmark. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Carlsberg A/S that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Carlsberg A/S grew +8.8 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Carlsberg A/S (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.50 %: that much free cash flow Carlsberg A/S produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carlsberg A/S it is kr 719.61 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 1,025. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carlsberg A/S stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, CARL-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 1,025, fair value kr 719.61, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CARL-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 1,025); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 719.61). For Carlsberg A/S the two are kr 305.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carlsberg A/S worth?
The market values Carlsberg A/S at about 136B DKK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 1,025; our models calculate a fair value of kr 719.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CARL-A?
Our models span a range for Carlsberg A/S: cautious scenario kr 367.11, base kr 719.61, optimistic kr 1,172 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 1,025). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CARL-A?
Carlsberg A/S trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 719.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 4.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of CARL-A?
The PEG ratio of Carlsberg A/S is 2.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Carlsberg A/S (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 20.4%, debt of 2.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CARL-A from its 52-week high?
Carlsberg A/S trades at kr 1,025, about 11% below its 52-week high of kr 1,150 and 22% above the low of kr 842.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 719.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carlsberg A/S?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carlsberg A/S stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 1,025, calculated fair value kr 719.61 (−30%), Quality Score 54/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CARL-A calculated?
We run Carlsberg A/S through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 719.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Carlsberg A/S itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 1,025. Our model-based fair value is kr 719.61, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Carlsberg A/S right now?
The model range is unusually wide (kr 367.11 to kr 1,172). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Carlsberg A/S grew +7.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.3 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Carlsberg A/S
How large is the market capitalisation of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The market capitalisation of Carlsberg A/S is 136B DKK (≈ $20.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Carlsberg A/S is 1.64 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Earnings per share at Carlsberg A/S are kr 44.89 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The dividend yield of Carlsberg A/S is 2.8% (payout 64.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The net margin of Carlsberg A/S is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carlsberg A/S is 20.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carlsberg A/S is 9.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
The operating margin of Carlsberg A/S is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Revenue at Carlsberg A/S is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A)?
Earnings per share at Carlsberg A/S are growing +13.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Carlsberg A/S (CARL-A) carry?
The net debt of Carlsberg A/S is 63.3B DKK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 30, 2026