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Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN (CASN3) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · BR · Market cap R$5.9B

CC Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN CASN3 · SA
PriceR$8.51
Fair ValueR$9.98
Upside+17.3%
Quality39/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 3.8% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
0.11% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/13)
Moderate moat 47/100
Evidence: High Range R$7.19 – R$13.72 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Below-average quality, screening 17% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (R$7.19 to R$13.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from R$7.19 (bear) to R$13.72 (bull), base R$9.98. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 39/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$11.69 R$8.47 Fair Value R$9.98 Mar 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$8.47 – R$11.69 · fair‑value band R$7.19 – R$13.72 · the R$8.51 price screens below the R$9.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN (CASN3) currently trades at R$8.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$9.98, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN generated revenue of R$1.7B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.2%. Net debt stands at R$2.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from R$7.19 (bear case) to R$13.72 (bull case); at R$8.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at 17%, CASN3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$4.51 R$5.85 R$15.55 76
ROIC Compounder R$3.87 R$5.68 R$8.48 72
Gordon GGM R$1.43 R$2.84 R$4.31 70
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$4.65 R$20.24 R$27.69 54
Lynch FV R$5.21 R$7.44 R$9.68 50
PEG = 1.0 R$5.21 R$7.44 R$9.68 46
EPV R$3.87 R$5.13 R$6.22 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$1.43 R$2.84 R$4.31 70
DDM Multi-Stage R$1.43 R$2.46 R$3.00 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$9.24 R$12.32 R$15.39 63
P/S Multiple R$7.19 R$9.58 R$11.98 58
P/B Multiple R$6.21 R$8.28 R$10.34 55
EV/EBIT R$8.68 R$12.95 R$17.22 53
EV/EBITDA R$7.10 R$10.85 R$14.59 54
EV/Revenue R$2.57 R$5.45 R$8.32 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$2.30 R$3.08 R$4.60 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$4.51 R$5.85 R$15.55 76
ROIC Compounder R$3.87 R$5.68 R$8.48 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$7.95 R$11.36 R$14.77 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R$11.36) versus Dividend Discount (R$2.46). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) R$1.7B
Revenue growth (YoY) +14.4%
Net margin 3.8%
Return on equity 3.2%
Free cash flow −R$261M FY2025
P/E ratio 209.0
More key figures
Operating margin 24.8%
EPS (TTM) R$0.0500
Dividend yield 0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.9%
Net debt R$2.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 32
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 36
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN engages in the water supply business in Santa Catarina and Parana, Brazil. It is also involved in the collection, removal, and treatment of sanitary sewage. Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN was founded in 1970 and is headquartered in Florianópolis, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN reported revenue of R$2.2B in FY2025 versus R$1.2B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$387M in FY2025, compounding +30.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 51/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$2.2B
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+15.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.6%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y)
+10.2%
Revenue +15.5%/yr
FY21 R$1.2B
FY22 R$1.4B
FY23 R$1.6B
FY24 R$2.0B
FY25 R$2.2B
Net income +30.1%/yr
FY21 R$135M
FY22 R$92.0M
FY23 R$50.7M
FY24 R$243M
FY25 R$387M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CASN3

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +17% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Above median
Revenue growth 14% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.90× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 209.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.27× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.49× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 56 · sector 7
FUTURE 72 · sector 28
PAST 13 · sector 29
HEALTH 55 · sector 66
DIVIDEND 2 · sector 49

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $134.33 $65.80 -51%
SBSP3 SBSP3 R$29.22 R$31.23 +7%
SBS SBS $5.79 $5.21 -10%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $38.59 $21.81 -43%
CSMG3 CSMG3 R$66.10 R$60.17 -9%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.42 ¥33.29 +13%
American States Water Company AWR $85.01 $48.02 -44%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥6.97 ¥10.74 +54%
California Water Service Group CWT $49.73 $33.56 -33%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.12 ¥2.77 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN (CASN3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$9.98 versus a price of R$8.51, about +17% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CASN3?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN is R$9.98 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is R$8.51.
What is the quality score of CASN3?
Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN (CASN3)?
Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$1.7B (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CASN3?
The net profit margin of Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN is about 3.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN pay a dividend?
Companhia Catarinense de Águas e Saneamento " CASAN currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.11% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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