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Cavatina Holding (CAV) Fair Value & Analysis

Real Estate · PL · Market cap 328M PLN

CH Cavatina Holding CAV · WAR
Price12.20 PLN
Fair Value2.24 PLN
Upside-81.6%
Quality30/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 8.1% net margin
High debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Narrow moat 43/100
Evidence: High Range 1.68 PLN – 2.79 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026

From 8 valuation models · updated 27 days ago

Share price −5.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 82% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.79 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

25.19 PLN 11.70 PLN Fair Value 2.24 PLN Aug 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 11.70 PLN – 25.19 PLN · fair‑value band 1.68 PLN – 2.79 PLN · the 12.20 PLN price screens above the 2.24 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Cavatina Holding (CAV) currently trades at 12.20 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.24 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 81.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Cavatina Holding generated revenue of 285M PLN at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 256.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.1%. Net debt stands at 2.2B PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1.68 PLN (bear case) to 2.79 PLN (bull case); at 12.20 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -82%, CAV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (2.01 PLN to 31.25 PLN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 29.50 PLN 26.87 PLN 16.54 PLN 76
Gordon GGM 1.22 PLN 2.20 PLN 3.03 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.22 PLN 2.01 PLN 2.35 PLN 61
All 8 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 1.22 PLN 2.20 PLN 3.03 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 1.22 PLN 2.01 PLN 2.35 PLN 61
Multiples
P/S Multiple 1.68 PLN 2.24 PLN 2.79 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 1.68 PLN 2.24 PLN 2.79 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 11.16 PLN 32.24 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 13.07 PLN 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 23.32 PLN 31.25 PLN 46.64 PLN 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income 29.50 PLN 26.87 PLN 16.54 PLN 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (31.25 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (2.01 PLN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 285M PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +256%
Net margin 8.7%
Return on equity 2.1%
Free cash flow −221M PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 13.3
More key figures
Operating margin 18.0%
EPS (TTM) 0.9700 PLN
EPS growth (YoY) +90.3%
Net debt 2.2B PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 13
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 36
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 15
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Cavatina Holding Spólka Akcyjna engages in the development of office spaces in Poland. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Kraków, Poland. Cavatina Holding Spólka Akcyjna operates as a subsidiary of Cavatina Group Spolka Akcyjna.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cavatina Holding reported revenue of 290M PLN in FY2025 versus 76.0M PLN in FY2021, a compound +39.8%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3M PLN in FY2025, compounding −63.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
290M PLN
Latest YoY
+119.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+51.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.5%
Avg. growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+47.4%
Revenue +39.8%/yr
FY21 76.0M PLN
FY22 82.7M PLN
FY23 141M PLN
FY24 132M PLN
FY25 290M PLN
Net income −63.6%/yr
FY21 190M PLN
FY22 27.1M PLN
FY23 90.5M PLN
FY24 10.8M PLN
FY25 3.3M PLN

CAV screens 82% overvalued. Compare with DLF Limited →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cavatina Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CAV

Peer Group

Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −82% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 48% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 1.61× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 13.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.29× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 48
FUTURE 100 · sector 0
PAST 8 · sector 10
HEALTH 20 · sector 84
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DLF Limited DLF ₹657.75 ₹159.49 -76%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,188 ₹583.43 -51%
PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI 6,125 IDR 1,330 IDR -78%
Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY ₹1,925 ₹1,183 -39%
Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP ₹2,102 ₹1,044 -50%
PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT 1,080 IDR 1,674 IDR +55%
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL 64.00 IDR 84.16 IDR +32%
PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA 555.00 IDR 1,388 IDR +150%
PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI 4,100 IDR 6,239 IDR +52%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cavatina Holding (CAV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.24 PLN versus a price of 12.20 PLN, about −82% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CAV?
Our model-based fair value for Cavatina Holding is 2.24 PLN (as of Jul 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 12.20 PLN.
What is the quality score of CAV?
Cavatina Holding has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cavatina Holding (CAV)?
Cavatina Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 285M PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CAV?
The net profit margin of Cavatina Holding is about 8.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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