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China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of China Coal Energy Company $1.89, price $1.28, upside +47.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
China Coal Energy Company
CCOZF · USUndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.
✓Fair value $1.89 · Undervalued (+47.7%)
!Quality 55/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +7.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0535 – $1.81 · fair‑value band $1.24 – $2.78 · the $1.28 price screens below the $1.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance.
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China Coal Energy Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the production and sale of coal in China and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Coal, Coal Chemical, Coal Mining Equipment, and Finance. It offers thermal and coking coal products; polyolefin, methanol, urea, and ammonium nitrate; and coal mining machinery and equipment. The company also engages in financial activities; thermal power generation; aluminum processing; import of equipment and related parts; bidding services; iron ore business; road transportation; and waste disposal. It exports its products. The company was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. China Coal Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Coal Group Corporation.
Stock analysis
China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) currently trades at $1.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.89, implying the stock looks roughly 32.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.62 per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the $1.28 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.8700, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.24 (bear) to $2.78 (bull), the price of $1.28 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
China Coal Energy Company reported revenue of 144B CNY in FY2025 versus 240B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 14.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.0B · P/E ratio 8.1 · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% · Operating margin 16.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at 48%, CCOZF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.24
Fair Value $1.89
Bull $2.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.05
$1.57
$2.33
80
Growth DCF
$1.08
$1.57
$2.23
78
Owner Earnings
$0.4800
$0.7400
$1.12
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.05
$1.57
$2.33
80
Owner Earnings
$0.4800
$0.7400
$1.12
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$1.13
$1.81
$2.66
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.71
$4.63
$6.80
74
5Y P/E Exit
$1.25
$2.02
$2.80
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.05
$1.66
$2.41
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.08
$3.56
$5.45
67
10Y P/E Exit
$1.16
$1.80
$2.51
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.08
$2.62
$3.38
65
PEG = 1.0
$0.4600
$0.6600
$0.8600
57
EPV
$6.98
$8.16
$9.20
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.5800
$1.04
$1.64
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.5800
$0.8700
$1.19
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.67
$2.23
$2.78
63
P/S Multiple
$1.46
$1.95
$2.44
58
P/B Multiple
$2.03
$2.70
$3.38
55
EV/EBIT
$6.10
$8.16
$10.23
66
EV/EBITDA
$4.17
$5.59
$7.02
67
EV/Revenue
$1.26
$1.85
$2.43
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.9000
$1.21
$1.81
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.08
$1.57
$2.23
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$1.13
$1.82
$2.57
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.55
$1.68
$1.97
76
ROIC Compounder
$7.24
$8.78
$10.35
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.32
$1.89
$2.45
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
55/100
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Profitability
37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
58
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
59
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.7% vs 26.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 51%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.6% a year for the price and +2.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+11.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.3%
Watch CCOZF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (31 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- China Coal Energy Co Ltd (CCOZF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Net Profit Rises 5. ...
- China Coal Energy Co Ltd (CCOZF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Market Challenges ...
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Coal
Oil & gas
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10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥19.76 | ¥9.35 | −53% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹426.10 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN | 12,100 IDR | 4,698 IDR | −61% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥27.82 | ¥20.72 | −26% |
| PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA | 1,055 IDR | 243.05 IDR | −77% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥15.35 | ¥6.23 | −59% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 935.00 IDR | 286.66 IDR | −69% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.89 versus a price of $1.28, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CCOZF?
Our model-based fair value for China Coal Energy Company is $1.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.28.
What is the quality score of CCOZF?
China Coal Energy Company has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.89 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.24, optimistic scenario $2.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the China Coal Energy Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.89, about +48% upside versus a price of $1.28 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.24, optimistic scenario $2.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
China Coal Energy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 144B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, China Coal Energy Company would have to grow free cash flow by -4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CCOZF use?
Our models discount China Coal Energy Company at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For China Coal Energy Company that is -4.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at China Coal Energy Company grew +0.5 % a year. The price currently implies -4.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into China Coal Energy Company (-4.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.03 %: that much free cash flow China Coal Energy Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For China Coal Energy Company it is $1.89 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $1.28. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is China Coal Energy Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CCOZF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.28, fair value $1.89, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CCOZF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.89). For China Coal Energy Company the two are $0.6100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is China Coal Energy Company worth?
The market values China Coal Energy Company at about $17.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $1.28; our models calculate a fair value of $1.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CCOZF?
Our models span a range for China Coal Energy Company: cautious scenario $1.24, base $1.89, optimistic $2.78 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $1.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CCOZF from its 52-week high?
China Coal Energy Company trades at $1.28, about 29% below its 52-week high of $1.81 and 8% above the low of $1.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to China Coal Energy Company?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is China Coal Energy Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $1.28, calculated fair value $1.89 (+48%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CCOZF calculated?
We run China Coal Energy Company through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. China Coal Energy Company currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.28. Our model-based fair value is $1.89, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with China Coal Energy Company right now?
Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($1.24 to $2.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) come from?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy Company grew +32.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.3 %, EBIT margin +24.4 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of China Coal Energy Company
How large is the market capitalisation of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The market capitalisation of China Coal Energy Company is $17.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of China Coal Energy Company is 8.1 (as of Jun 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of China Coal Energy Company is 0.80 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy Company are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The net margin of China Coal Energy Company is 9.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of China Coal Energy Company is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of China Coal Energy Company is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
The operating margin of China Coal Energy Company is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
Revenue at China Coal Energy Company is growing −10.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF)?
Earnings per share at China Coal Energy Company are growing −3.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does China Coal Energy Company (CCOZF) carry?
The net debt of China Coal Energy Company is 37.4B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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