COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company (CDP) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $3.9B
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company
CDP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price +2.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 39% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($11.84 to $28.55) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.93 – $38.35 · fair‑value band $11.84 – $28.55 · the $37.14 price screens above the $22.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company (CDP) currently trades at $37.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.84, implying the stock looks roughly 38.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company generated revenue of $781M at a net margin of 20.0%. Revenue grew 7.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at $2.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $11.84 (bear case) to $28.55 (bull case); at $37.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -39%, CDP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($27.69) versus Asset-Based ($8.95). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company, is a self-managed REIT focused on owning, operating and developing properties in locations proximate to, or sometimes containing, key U.S. Government defense installations and missions (referred to as its Defense/IT Portfolio).
Full company description
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company, is a self-managed REIT focused on owning, operating and developing properties in locations proximate to, or sometimes containing, key U.S. Government defense installations and missions (referred to as its Defense/IT Portfolio). The Company's tenants include the USG and their defense contractors, who are primarily engaged in priority national security activities, and who generally require mission-critical and high security property enhancements. As of March 31, 2026, the Company's Defense/IT Portfolio of 201 properties, including 24 owned through unconsolidated joint ventures, encompassed 23.2 million square feet and was 96.4% leased. COPT Defense Properties was incorporated in 1988 and is based in Columbia, United States.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
COPT Defense Properties, an S&P MidCap 400 Company reported revenue of $764M in FY2025 versus $664M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $152M in FY2025, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2021.
CDP screens 39% overvalued. Compare with MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Beat Expectations And Raised Guidance, Is The Stock Fully Priced?
- COPT Defense Properties (CDP) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth and Strategic ...
- COPT Defense Properties Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- COPT Defense (CDP) Surpasses Q2 FFO and Revenue Estimates
Peer Group
REIT - Office · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Office median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Office stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A MRL | €15.23 | €6.46 | -58% |
| BXP, Inc BXP | $69.11 | $53.27 | -23% |
| Vornado Realty Trust VNORP | $51.75 | $41.59 | -20% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc ARE | $50.12 | $59.48 | +19% |
| Hudson Pacific Properties, Inc HPP | $15.38 | $4.60 | -70% |
| Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust N2IU | 1.28 SGD | 1.14 SGD | -11% |
| Cousins Properties Incorporated CUZ | $32.15 | $17.62 | -45% |
| Kilroy Realty Corporation KRC | $39.42 | $40.37 | +2% |
| Keppel DC REIT AJBU | 2.20 SGD | 1.68 SGD | -24% |
| DEXUS DXS | A$5.64 | A$4.49 | -20% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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