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Castle Minerals Limited (CDT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 13, 2026: fair value of Castle Minerals Limited A$0.02, price A$0.08, upside -68.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
Castle Minerals Limited
CDT · AUWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
Our calculation puts a fair price 68% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 44/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +108.6 %/yr in AUD)
Fair value A$0.0240 · Strongly overvalued (−68.0%)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/6)
Narrow moat 5/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0405 – A$2.04 · the A$0.0750 price screens above the A$0.0240 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Company profile
Castle Minerals Limited engages in the exploration of gold, graphite, and other mineral deposits in West Africa and Australia. The company explores for graphite, gold, and base metals. Its flagship projects include the Kpali and the Kandia gold projects located in Ghana, West Africa. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Castle Minerals Limited (CDT) currently trades at A$0.0750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0240, 68.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Castle Minerals Limited reported revenue of A$7.3K in FY2025 versus A$255 in FY2021, a compound +131.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$17.2M (≈ $12.1M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0400 · Return on equity −148% · Return on assets (EBIT) −151% · Operating margin −10,057% · Revenue (TTM) A$13.2K · Revenue growth (YoY) −38.9% · Free cash flow −A$2.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −68%, CDT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
A$0.0100
48
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
A$0.0100
48
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
44/100
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
31
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
30/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−88.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+161.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.8%
’12
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’18
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’21
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’23
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−542,608.7% (2020) → −50,765.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
CDT screens overvalued: fair value 68% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 210 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $23.34 | $51.30 | +120% | vs CDT |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.22 | ¥44.45 | +47% | vs CDT |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | $45.71 | $59.13 | +29% | vs CDT |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $188.18 | $219.71 | +17% | vs CDT |
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.82 | $127.40 | +10% | vs CDT |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $244.85 | $269.34 | +10% | vs CDT |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $236.91 | $260.60 | +10% | vs CDT |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $93.44 | $88.60 | −5% | vs CDT |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥26.54 | ¥23.61 | −11% | vs CDT |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $138.11 | $87.78 | −36% | vs CDT |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Castle Minerals Limited (CDT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0240 versus a price of A$0.0750, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CDT?
Our model-based fair value for Castle Minerals Limited is A$0.0240 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0750.
What is the quality score of CDT?
Castle Minerals Limited has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0240 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Castle Minerals Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0240, about −68% upside versus a price of A$0.0750 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Castle Minerals Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$13.2K (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Castle Minerals Limited it is A$0.0240 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of A$0.0750. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Castle Minerals Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, CDT trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0750, fair value A$0.0240, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CDT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0750); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0240). For Castle Minerals Limited the two are A$0.0510 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Castle Minerals Limited worth?
The market values Castle Minerals Limited at about A$17.2M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0750; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0240 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Castle Minerals Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −148.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CDT from its 52-week high?
Castle Minerals Limited trades at A$0.0750, about 19% below its 52-week high of A$0.0930 and 85% above the low of A$0.0405 (as of Oct 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0240 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Castle Minerals Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Castle Minerals Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price A$0.0750, calculated fair value A$0.0240 (−68%), Quality Score 44/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CDT calculated?
We run Castle Minerals Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0240, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Castle Minerals Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
The closing price on Oct 13, 2026 was A$0.0750. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0240, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Castle Minerals Limited right now?
Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Castle Minerals Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
The market capitalisation of Castle Minerals Limited is A$17.2M (≈ $12.1M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Earnings per share at Castle Minerals Limited are A$−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Castle Minerals Limited is −148% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Castle Minerals Limited is −151% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
The operating margin of Castle Minerals Limited is −10,057% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Castle Minerals Limited (CDT)?
Revenue at Castle Minerals Limited is growing −38.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +161%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Castle Minerals Limited (CDT) generate?
The free cash flow of Castle Minerals Limited is −A$2.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Castle Minerals Limited (CDT) hold?
Castle Minerals Limited holds more cash than debt, A$2.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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