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Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Cebu Air Inc Preferred PHP 7.06, price PHP 22.00, upside -67.9%, quality 13 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
Thin data
Sep 27, 2026
Cebu Air Inc Preferred
CEBCP · PSEWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 7.06 PHP · Strongly overvalued (−67.9%)
!Quality 13/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −24.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -158.2% net margin (FY2021)
!High debt
!Trails peers (1/8)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 22.00 PHP – 42.53 PHP · fair‑value band 5.27 PHP – 10.54 PHP · the 22.00 PHP price screens above the 7.06 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Stock analysis
Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP) currently trades at 22.00 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.06 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 211.6% overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: 5.27 PHP (bear) to 10.54 PHP (bull), the price of 22.00 PHP sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Cebu Air Inc Preferred reported revenue of 15.7B PHP in FY2021 versus 68.0B PHP in FY2017, a compound −30.6%/yr. Reported net income was −24.9B PHP in FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 26.6B PHP (≈ $426M) · P/E ratio 10.0 · EPS (TTM) −45.15 PHP · Return on equity −9,564% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −68%, CEBCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 5.27 PHP
Fair Value 7.06 PHP
Bull 10.54 PHP
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
4.39 PHP
5.88 PHP
8.77 PHP
54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
4.39 PHP
5.88 PHP
8.77 PHP
54
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
13/100
Of which business quality 13 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
63
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
44
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−30.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−40.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.0%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
19.8% (2016) → −146.5% (2021)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no share-count history
not computed
CEBCP screens 212% overvalued. Compare with RedcapTour Co →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Passenger Transportation Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Industrials · 5422 stocks
Beats the sector median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Passenger Transportation Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA | 263.00 THB | 38.64 THB | −85% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% |
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,788 | ₹1,041 | −42% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,021,000 KRW | 678,284 KRW | −34% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 372.25 TRY | 63.11 TRY | −83% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 441,000 KRW | 485,100 KRW | +10% |
| Airports of Thailand Public Company AOT | 62.25 THB | 54.20 THB | −13% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.06 PHP versus a price of 22.00 PHP, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CEBCP?
Our model-based fair value for Cebu Air Inc Preferred is 7.06 PHP (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 22.00 PHP.
What is the quality score of CEBCP?
Cebu Air Inc Preferred has a Quality Score of 13/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.06 PHP (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.27 PHP, optimistic scenario 10.54 PHP. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cebu Air Inc Preferred stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.06 PHP, about −68% upside versus a price of 22.00 PHP (overvalued). Cautious scenario 5.27 PHP, optimistic scenario 10.54 PHP. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cebu Air Inc Preferred it is 7.06 PHP per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 22.00 PHP. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cebu Air Inc Preferred stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CEBCP trades above its calculated fair value: price 22.00 PHP, fair value 7.06 PHP, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEBCP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (22.00 PHP); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.06 PHP). For Cebu Air Inc Preferred the two are 14.94 PHP per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cebu Air Inc Preferred worth?
The market values Cebu Air Inc Preferred at about 26.6B PHP (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 22.00 PHP; our models calculate a fair value of 7.06 PHP per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEBCP?
Our models span a range for Cebu Air Inc Preferred: cautious scenario 5.27 PHP, base 7.06 PHP, optimistic 10.54 PHP per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 22.00 PHP). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CEBCP?
Cebu Air Inc Preferred trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 7.06 PHP is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cebu Air Inc Preferred (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 5.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 13/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEBCP from its 52-week high?
Cebu Air Inc Preferred trades at 22.00 PHP, about 42% below its 52-week high of 37.80 PHP and at the low of 22.00 PHP (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.06 PHP is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cebu Air Inc Preferred?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value RedcapTour Co, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cebu Air Inc Preferred stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 22.00 PHP, calculated fair value 7.06 PHP (−68%), Quality Score 13/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEBCP calculated?
We run Cebu Air Inc Preferred through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.06 PHP, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Cebu Air Inc Preferred itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 22.00 PHP. Our model-based fair value is 7.06 PHP, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cebu Air Inc Preferred right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.54 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (5.27 PHP to 10.54 PHP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Cebu Air Inc Preferred
How large is the market capitalisation of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
The market capitalisation of Cebu Air Inc Preferred is 26.6B PHP (≈ $426M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
Earnings per share at Cebu Air Inc Preferred are −45.15 PHP (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cebu Air Inc Preferred is −9,564% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cebu Air Inc Preferred (CEBCP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cebu Air Inc Preferred is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
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