CEBCP Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · PH · Market cap 26.6B PHP
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 8.29 PHP to 7.06 PHP (−14.8%) since Jul 10, 2026. Share price +2.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.54 PHP). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (13/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (5.27 PHP to 10.54 PHP) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 24.85 PHP – 42.53 PHP · fair‑value band 5.27 PHP – 10.54 PHP · the 31.05 PHP price screens above the 7.06 PHP fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CEBCP (CEBCP) currently trades at 31.05 PHP, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.06 PHP, implying the stock looks roughly 77.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 13/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 10.0 (as of Jun 10, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 5.27 PHP (bear case) to 10.54 PHP (bull case); at 31.05 PHP, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -77%, CEBCP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (31.98 PHP) versus Asset-Based (8.29 PHP). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 13 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2017 – FY2021 · reported fiscal years
CEBCP reported revenue of 15.7B PHP in FY2021 versus 68.0B PHP in FY2017, a compound −30.6%/yr. Reported net income was −24.9B PHP in FY2021.
CEBCP screens 77% overvalued. Compare with RedcapTour Co →
Peer Group
Industrials · 5376 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Passenger Transportation Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Passenger Transportation Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| RedcapTour Co 038390 | 10,050 KRW | 27,604 KRW | +175% |
| LG Energy Solution, Ltd 373220 | 365,500 KRW | 201,455 KRW | -45% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 357,500 KRW | 261,411 KRW | -27% |
| WEG S.A WEGE3 | 14,900 ARS | 4,338 ARS | -71% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| HD Hyundai Electric Co 267260 | 782,000 KRW | 371,133 KRW | -53% |
| LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 | 208,500 KRW | 29,594 KRW | -86% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,860 IDR | 9,720 IDR | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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