Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Criterium Energy Ltd. C$0.18, price C$0.14, upside +25.7%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0250 – C$0.4750 · fair‑value band C$0.1131 – C$0.1958 · the C$0.1400 price screens below the C$0.1760 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Criterium Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in Indonesia and Canada. The company owns 100% interest in the Tungkal PSC property covering an area of 2,285 square kilometers located in the West Papua province of Indonesia.
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Criterium Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in Indonesia and Canada. The company owns 100% interest in the Tungkal PSC property covering an area of 2,285 square kilometers located in the West Papua province of Indonesia. It also holds a 42.5% non-operated working interest in the Bulu PSC located in the offshore East Java. The company was formerly known as Softrock Minerals Ltd. and changed its name to Criterium Energy Ltd. in September 2022. Criterium Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) currently trades at C$0.1400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.1760, implying the stock looks roughly 20.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$1.08 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the C$0.1400 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$0.0900, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.1131 (bear) to C$0.1958 (bull), the price of C$0.1400 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Criterium Energy Ltd. reported revenue of C$33.8M in FY2025 versus C$159K in FY2021, a compound +281.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$14.8M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$19.1M (≈ $13.5M) · P/S ratio 0.72 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.1300 · Net margin −43.8% · Return on equity −4,045% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.4% · Operating margin −3.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$28.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 26%, CEQ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.1131Fair Value C$0.1760Bull C$0.1958
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+464.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+198.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−11.6% (2020) → 3.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+26% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−4% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)0.48× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF6.1× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)68· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)82· sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 74
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Criterium Energy Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CEQ
Frequently asked questions
Is Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.1760 versus a price of C$0.1400, about +26% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CEQ?
Our model-based fair value for Criterium Energy Ltd. is C$0.1760 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.1400.
What is the quality score of CEQ?
Criterium Energy Ltd. has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.1760 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1131, optimistic scenario C$0.1958. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Criterium Energy Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.1760, about +26% upside versus a price of C$0.1400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$0.1131, optimistic scenario C$0.1958. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Criterium Energy Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$28.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Criterium Energy Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +198.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CEQ use?
Our models discount Criterium Energy Ltd. at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.76, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Criterium Energy Ltd. that is +3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Criterium Energy Ltd. grew +198.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Criterium Energy Ltd. (+3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.64 %: that much free cash flow Criterium Energy Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Criterium Energy Ltd. it is C$0.1760 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$0.1400. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Criterium Energy Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CEQ trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.1400, fair value C$0.1760, a gap of about +26% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CEQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.1400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.1760). For Criterium Energy Ltd. the two are C$0.0360 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Criterium Energy Ltd. worth?
The market values Criterium Energy Ltd. at about C$19.1M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$0.1400; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.1760 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CEQ?
Our models span a range for Criterium Energy Ltd.: cautious scenario C$0.1131, base C$0.1760, optimistic C$0.1958 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$0.1400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Criterium Energy Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CEQ from its 52-week high?
Criterium Energy Ltd. trades at C$0.1400, about 15% below its 52-week high of C$0.1650 and 87% above the low of C$0.0750 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.1760 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Criterium Energy Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Criterium Energy Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$0.1400, calculated fair value C$0.1760 (+26%), Quality Score 31/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CEQ calculated?
We run Criterium Energy Ltd. through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.1760, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Criterium Energy Ltd. currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$0.1400. Our model-based fair value is C$0.1760, about +26% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Criterium Energy Ltd. right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Criterium Energy Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The market capitalisation of Criterium Energy Ltd. is C$19.1M (≈ $13.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Criterium Energy Ltd. is 0.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Earnings per share at Criterium Energy Ltd. are C$−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The net margin of Criterium Energy Ltd. is −43.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Criterium Energy Ltd. is −4,045% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Criterium Energy Ltd. is −5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
The operating margin of Criterium Energy Ltd. is −3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Revenue at Criterium Energy Ltd. is growing +16.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +465%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ)?
Earnings per share at Criterium Energy Ltd. are growing +357% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ) carry?
The net debt of Criterium Energy Ltd. is C$25.8M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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