Criterium Energy Ltd (CEQ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$16.1M
Fair value as of: Jul 29, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 12 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 20% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Our model range runs from C$0.0800 (bear) to C$0.1300 (bull), base C$0.0800. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 31/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0250 – C$0.4750 · fair‑value band C$0.0800 – C$0.1300 · the C$0.1000 price screens above the C$0.0800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 29, 2026.
Analysis
Criterium Energy Ltd (CEQ) currently trades at C$0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0800, implying the stock looks roughly 20.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Criterium Energy Ltd generated revenue of C$26.8M at a net margin of -60.7%. Revenue declined 46.9% year over year. Net debt stands at C$25.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.0800 (bear case) to C$0.1300 (bull case); at C$0.1000, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -20%, CEQ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$0.2900) versus Earnings-Based (C$0.0700). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Criterium Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in Indonesia and Canada. The company owns 100% interest in the Tungkal PSC property covering an area of 2,285 square kilometers located in the West Papua province of Indonesia.
Full company description
Criterium Energy Ltd. engages in the exploration, development, production, and sale of oil and natural gas in Indonesia and Canada. The company owns 100% interest in the Tungkal PSC property covering an area of 2,285 square kilometers located in the West Papua province of Indonesia. It also holds a 42.5% non-operated working interest in the Bulu PSC located in the offshore East Java. The company was formerly known as Softrock Minerals Ltd. and changed its name to Criterium Energy Ltd. in September 2022. Criterium Energy Ltd. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Criterium Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$33.8M in FY2025 versus C$159K in FY2021, a compound +281.9%/yr. Reported net income was −C$14.8M in FY2025.
CEQ screens 20% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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