Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. €1.24, price €2.22, upside -44.1%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.30 – €3.53 · fair‑value band €0.9400 – €2.57 · the €2.22 price screens above the €1.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Confinvest Oro S.p.A. engages in gold coins, bars, ingots, and silver related businesses in Italy. It sells gold coins, bars, and ingots. The company is involved in physical gold custody services and offers physical gold accumulation plans. In addition, it invests in physical gold. The company was formerly known as Confinvest F.L. S.p.A.
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Confinvest Oro S.p.A. engages in gold coins, bars, ingots, and silver related businesses in Italy. It sells gold coins, bars, and ingots. The company is involved in physical gold custody services and offers physical gold accumulation plans. In addition, it invests in physical gold. The company was formerly known as Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. and changed its name to Confinvest Oro S.p.A. in April 2026. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Milan, Italy.
Stock analysis
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) currently trades at €2.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €1.24, implying the stock looks roughly 79.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of €5.09 per share, and 5 of the 10 models we run sit above the €2.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.6000, and 5 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €0.9400 (bear) to €2.57 (bull), the price of €2.22 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. reported revenue of €80.9M in FY2025 versus €30.3M in FY2021, a compound +27.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €19.5M · P/E ratio 11.1 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) €0.2000 · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 19.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1% · Operating margin 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −44%, CFV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €0.9400Fair Value €1.24Bull €2.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1468 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
2025 sits 210% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 463 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Return on assets14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth100% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)11.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.76× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.27× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF62.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA25.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 91
PAST (return on equity)77· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €1.24 versus a price of €2.22, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CFV?
Our model-based fair value for Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is €1.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €2.22.
What is the quality score of CFV?
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €1.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.9400, optimistic scenario €2.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €1.24, about −44% upside versus a price of €2.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.9400, optimistic scenario €2.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €81.8M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +26.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CFV use?
Our models discount Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. that is +26.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. grew +14.4 % a year. The price currently implies +26.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (+26.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.28 %: that much free cash flow Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. it is €1.24 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €2.22. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, CFV trades above its calculated fair value: price €2.22, fair value €1.24, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CFV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€2.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€1.24). For Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. the two are €0.9800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. worth?
The market values Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. at about €19.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €2.22; our models calculate a fair value of €1.24 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CFV?
Our models span a range for Confinvest F.L. S.p.A.: cautious scenario €0.9400, base €1.24, optimistic €2.57 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €2.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CFV?
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €1.24 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 25.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 19.3%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CFV from its 52-week high?
Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. trades at €2.22, about 7% below its 52-week high of €2.38 and 30% above the low of €1.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €1.24 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Confinvest F.L. S.p.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €2.22, calculated fair value €1.24 (−44%), Quality Score 66/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CFV calculated?
We run Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €1.24, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €2.22. Our model-based fair value is €1.24, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€0.9400 to €2.57). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The market capitalisation of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is €19.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is 0.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Earnings per share at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. are €0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The net margin of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
The operating margin of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Revenue at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is growing +100% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV)?
Earnings per share at Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. are growing +343% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. (CFV) carry?
The net debt of Confinvest F.L. S.p.A. is €41.1K (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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