Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V MXN 143, price MXN 87.84, upside +62.9%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 28.80 MXN – 156.75 MXN · fair‑value band 107.30 MXN – 178.84 MXN · the 87.84 MXN price screens below the 143.07 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. operates self"service and real estate stores in Mexico and the United States.
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Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. operates self"service and real estate stores in Mexico and the United States. The company operates supermarkets for fruits, vegetables, meats, fish, seafood, pantry, sausage shop, diapers, dairy and eggs, bakery and tortilla shop, refrigerated and frozen, beverages, home cleaning, disposables, dairy and eggs, and cheese products; personal care and hygiene, including hair care, body care, oral hygiene, facial care, intimate hygiene, and hair dyes for women and men; pharmacy comprising drugs, incontinence, medical equipment and kit, vitamins and supplements, sexual health; beauty, which includes cosmetics, manicure and pedicure, fragrances, and shaving and waxing; pet products for dogs, cats, and other pets; baby products, including clothes, baby hygiene and care, infant formulas and foods, breastfeeding and feeding, diapers, and baby walk; and technological products comprising television, audio, computation, smart home, telephony, geek world. It also offers appliances, including refrigeration, stoves and grills, washing and drying, ironing, heating, vacuum cleaners and accessories, air conditioners, and water dispensers and purifiers; home and garden, automobiles and motorcycles; stationery and office, comprising arts and crafts, notebooks, writing, backpacks, and lunch boxes; toys which includes baby toys, dolls, teddies, action figures and collectibles, vehicles and tracks, blocks and construction, board games and puzzles, crafts and educational games, outdoor games, and imitations; sports, such as camping, swimming, cycling, team sports, racket sports, boxing, and luggage; home and garden, including bath, kitchen, home organization, bedroom, home decor, party items, seasons, patio and garden, and home maintenance; fashion comprising women's, girls, children's and men's clothing, and shoemaking; and automobiles and motorcycles related products. The company was founded in 1920 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) currently trades at 87.84 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 143.07 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 309.08 MXN per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the 87.84 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 36.08 MXN, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 107.30 MXN (bear) to 178.84 MXN (bull), the price of 87.84 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 295B MXN in FY2025 versus 188B MXN in FY2021, a compound +11.9%/yr. Reported net income was 6.5B MXN in FY2025, compounding +17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 84.3B MXN (≈ $4.7B) · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) 6.59 MXN · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 12.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 63%, CHDRAUIB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 107.30 MXNFair Value 143.07 MXNBull 178.84 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.25 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.1% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20.2% vs 12.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −16.9% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 75 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+62.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.2% · Below median
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CHDRAUIB
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 143.07 MXN versus a price of 87.84 MXN, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHDRAUIB?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 143.07 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 87.84 MXN.
What is the quality score of CHDRAUIB?
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 143.07 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 107.30 MXN, optimistic scenario 178.84 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 143.07 MXN, about +63% upside versus a price of 87.84 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 107.30 MXN, optimistic scenario 178.84 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 288B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.54% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by -14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHDRAUIB use?
Our models discount Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V that is -14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies -14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (-14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.64 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V it is 143.07 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 87.84 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, CHDRAUIB trades below its calculated fair value: price 87.84 MXN, fair value 143.07 MXN, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHDRAUIB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (87.84 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (143.07 MXN). For Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V the two are 55.23 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V at about 84.3B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 87.84 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 143.07 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHDRAUIB?
Our models span a range for Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 107.30 MXN, base 143.07 MXN, optimistic 178.84 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 87.84 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHDRAUIB?
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 143.07 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.3.
What is the PEG ratio of CHDRAUIB?
The PEG ratio of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 0.85 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.2%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHDRAUIB from its 52-week high?
Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V trades at 87.84 MXN, about 39% below its 52-week high of 144.42 MXN and 5% above the low of 83.94 MXN (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 143.07 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 87.84 MXN, calculated fair value 143.07 MXN (+63%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHDRAUIB calculated?
We run Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 143.07 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was 87.84 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 143.07 MXN, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (107.30 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 84.3B MXN (≈ $4.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V are 6.59 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 2.5% (payout 33.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The net margin of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
The operating margin of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 5.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Revenue at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V are growing −11.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V (CHDRAUIB) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Comercial Chedraui S.A.B. de C.V is 1.1B MXN (fiscal year 2022, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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