Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 13, 2026: fair value of Kesko Oyj €12.99, price €23.38, upside -44.4%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €13.11 – €29.28 · fair‑value band €7.70 – €18.72 · the €23.38 price screens above the €12.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 10, 2026.
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Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions.
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Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions. The Grocery Trade division is involved in the wholesale and B2B trade of groceries, and retail of home and specialty goods under the K-retailer brand; offer online grocery services; and operates as a foodservice provider and wholesaler, as well as store retail chains under the K-Citymarket, K-Supermarket, K-Market, and Kespro. The Building and Technical Trade division engages in the wholesale, retail, and B2B trade of building and home improvement, and HEPAC and electrical products and services; and operates retail stores chain under the K-Rauta, K-Bygg, Byggmakker, and Davidsen, as well as serves technical trade customers under Onninen brand names. The Car Trade division is involved in the import, market, and retail of Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, CUPRA, Bentley, and Porsche passenger cars, as well as Volkswagen commercial vehicles under K-Auto brand name; purchase and retail of used cars; operation of leasing business for private and corporate customers; and other services, including repair and maintenance, as well as sale of spare parts and accessories; charging network for electric vehicles under the K- Lataus name; and sports trade comprising Intersport and budget sport chains. Kesko Oyj was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Stock analysis
Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) currently trades at €23.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.99, 44.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €17.25 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the €23.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.71, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €7.70 (bear) to €18.72 (bull), the price of €23.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kesko Oyj reported revenue of €12.5B in FY2025 versus €11.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €404M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €9.3B · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) €1.05 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 16.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −44%, KESKOB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€7.70Fair Value €12.99Bull€18.72
Price €23.38 · Upside -44.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1175 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€5.62€8.97€13.9478
Growth DCF€5.91€9.10€13.6276
Owner Earnings€8.46€12.94€19.5875
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€5.62€8.97€13.9478
Owner Earnings€8.46€12.94€19.5875
5Y Revenue Exit€5.81€10.11€15.5270
5Y EBITDA Exit€13.66€23.75€35.3273
5Y P/E Exit€9.06€15.77€22.5869
10Y Revenue Exit€5.40€9.19€13.7065
10Y EBITDA Exit€10.52€18.30€27.6766
10Y P/E Exit€7.68€12.97€18.6862
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€6.90€13.89€17.4763
EPV€4.48€5.70€6.7672
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€8.54€12.32€16.2566
DDM Multi-Stage€8.54€12.04€16.0965
Multiples
P/E Multiple€15.99€21.31€26.6461
P/S Multiple€12.94€17.25€21.5756
P/B Multiple€12.94€17.25€21.5753
EV/EBIT€10.33€14.71€19.0964
EV/EBITDA€21.55€29.67€37.7966
EV/Revenue€6.57€10.59€14.6151
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€3.51€4.71€7.0352
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€5.91€9.10€13.6276
Rev-Margin DCF€5.81€10.22€14.9871
Economic Profit
Residual Income€6.94€8.43€11.1775
ROIC Compounder€4.48€5.70€6.7671
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€11.60€16.58€21.5566
P/S and P/B multiple show the same value here: both are capped by the same earnings anchor (earnings per share times 17), because margin and return on equity do not support the sector multiple.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.5% vs 15.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.3% a year for the price and +1.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (10 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Modest profit gains from the Dahl acquisition form the main strength, while unclear durable advantages and thin evidence amid sector competition remain the key weakness.
Main risk: Execution risks from integrating the Dahl technical trade businesses together with the financing burden could erode lasting value from the added scale.
Kesko is moving ahead with a large rights issue to partly refinance its biggest acquisition to date, the Dahl technical trade businesses in Sweden, Norway and Denmark. The deal broadens exposure beyond the grocery core into a segment that has already lifted profits, yet it also means new execution risks and equity dilution. Will the added scale in technical trade deliver more lasting value than the financing burden subtracts?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−44.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.1% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.9× · Pricier than median
P/B3.33× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.72× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow42.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG6.27× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)30· sector 13
PAST (return on equity)64· sector 51
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)77· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kesko Oyj Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KESKOB
Frequently asked questions
Is Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.99 versus a price of €23.38, about −44% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KESKOB?
Our model-based fair value for Kesko Oyj is €12.99 (as of Oct 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €23.38.
What is the quality score of KESKOB?
Kesko Oyj has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.99 (as of Oct 10, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €7.70, optimistic scenario €18.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kesko Oyj stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.99, about −44% upside versus a price of €23.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €7.70, optimistic scenario €18.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Kesko Oyj reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 10, 2026).
Does Kesko Oyj pay a dividend?
Kesko Oyj currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.85% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kesko Oyj would have to grow free cash flow by +23.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Oct 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KESKOB use?
Our models discount Kesko Oyj at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kesko Oyj that is +23.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kesko Oyj grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kesko Oyj (+23.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.37 %: that much free cash flow Kesko Oyj produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kesko Oyj it is €12.99 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026), against a price of €23.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kesko Oyj stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 10, 2026, KESKOB trades above its calculated fair value: price €23.38, fair value €12.99, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KESKOB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€23.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.99). For Kesko Oyj the two are €10.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kesko Oyj worth?
The market values Kesko Oyj at about €9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 10, 2026). Per share that is €23.38; our models calculate a fair value of €12.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KESKOB?
Our models span a range for Kesko Oyj: cautious scenario €7.70, base €12.99, optimistic €18.72 per share (as of Oct 10, 2026, price €23.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KESKOB?
Kesko Oyj trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Oct 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.3, P/B 3.3, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of KESKOB?
The PEG ratio of Kesko Oyj is 6.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 10, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kesko Oyj (as of Oct 10, 2026): return on equity 16.1%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KESKOB from its 52-week high?
Kesko Oyj trades at €23.38, at its 52-week high of €23.38 and 36% above the low of €17.24 (as of Oct 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kesko Oyj?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kesko Oyj stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 10, 2026: price €23.38, calculated fair value €12.99 (−44%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KESKOB calculated?
We run Kesko Oyj through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kesko Oyj itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The closing price on Oct 13, 2026 was €23.38. Our model-based fair value is €12.99, about −44% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kesko Oyj right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€7.70 to €18.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) come from?
Earnings per share at Kesko Oyj grew +17.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin +11.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kesko Oyj
How large is the market capitalisation of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The market capitalisation of Kesko Oyj is €9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kesko Oyj is 0.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Earnings per share at Kesko Oyj are €1.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The dividend yield of Kesko Oyj is 3.8% (payout 85.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The net margin of Kesko Oyj is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kesko Oyj is 16.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kesko Oyj is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
The operating margin of Kesko Oyj is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Revenue at Kesko Oyj is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kesko Oyj (KESKOB)?
Earnings per share at Kesko Oyj are growing +10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) carry?
The net debt of Kesko Oyj is €3.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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