Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · FI · Market cap €7.8B · ISIN FI0009000202
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €12.22 to €11.70 (−4.3%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +3.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but trading 91% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€16.09). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€8.23 to €16.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €13.11 – €29.28 · fair‑value band €8.23 – €16.09 · the €22.40 price screens above the €11.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kesko Oyj (KESKOB) currently trades at €22.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.70, implying the stock looks roughly 47.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kesko Oyj generated revenue of €12.7B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at €3.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.23 (bear case) to €16.09 (bull case); at €22.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -16% fair-value upside, at -48%, KESKOB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€17.26) versus Asset-Based (€4.71). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions.
Full company description
Kesko Oyj engages in the chain operations in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Denmark, and Poland. The company operates through Grocery Trade, Building and Technical Trade, and Car Trade divisions. The Grocery Trade division is involved in the wholesale and B2B trade of groceries, and retail of home and specialty goods under the K-retailer brand; offer online grocery services; and operates as a foodservice provider and wholesaler, as well as store retail chains under the K-Citymarket, K-Supermarket, K-Market, and Kespro. The Building and Technical Trade division engages in the wholesale, retail, and B2B trade of building and home improvement, and HEPAC and electrical products and services; and operates retail stores chain under the K-Rauta, K-Bygg, Byggmakker, and Davidsen, as well as serves technical trade customers under Onninen brand names. The Car Trade division is involved in the import, market, and retail of Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, CUPRA, Bentley, and Porsche passenger cars, as well as Volkswagen commercial vehicles under K-Auto brand name; purchase and retail of used cars; operation of leasing business for private and corporate customers; and other services, including repair and maintenance, as well as sale of spare parts and accessories; charging network for electric vehicles under the K- Lataus name; and sports trade comprising Intersport and budget sport chains. Kesko Oyj was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kesko Oyj reported revenue of €12.5B in FY2025 versus €11.3B in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was €404M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.9 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
KESKOB screens 48% overvalued. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kesko Oyj (KKOYY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth Amid Mixed Profit ...
- Kesko Oyj (KKOYY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Sales Growth Amid Market Challenges
- Kesko (HLSE:KESKOB): A Fresh Look at Valuation Following Recent Share Price Shifts
- CGI Inc. (GIB) Partners with Kesko
Peer Group
Grocery Stores · 82 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$60.79 | C$44.44 | -27% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €30.57 | €53.50 | +75% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $57.72 | $28.19 | -51% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$39.55 | A$8.33 | -79% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$98.54 | C$147.70 | +50% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$88.26 | C$94.01 | +7% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.60 | €11.19 | -28% |
| CP ALL Public Company TCPD | 1.81 SGD | 2.35 SGD | +30% |
| BIM Birlesik Magazalar A.S., BIMAS | 418.25 TRY | 267.12 TRY | -36% |
| President Chain Store Corporation 2912 | 219.50 TWD | 183.31 TWD | -16% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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