CHEVRON (CHEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 7, 2026: fair value of CHEVRON C$11.43, price C$23.84, upside -52.1%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range C$16.83 – C$27.19 · fair‑value band C$7.80 – C$15.43 · the C$23.84 price screens above the C$11.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream.
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Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and processing, transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.
Stock analysis
CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) (CHEV) currently trades at C$23.84, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$11.43, 52.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$13.20 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$23.84 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at C$6.96, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$7.80 (bear) to C$15.43 (bull), the price of C$23.84 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) reported revenue of $184B in FY2025 versus $156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$499B (≈ $350B) · P/E ratio 24.3 · P/S ratio 1.62 · Net margin 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.0% · Free cash flow $16.6B · Net debt $33.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −52%, CHEV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$7.80Fair Value C$11.43Bull C$15.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 9%
Compare CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Integrated · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−52.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)6.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)27.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.21× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.69× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 98
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)90· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)51· sector 70
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$11.43 versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of C$23.84, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CHEV?
Our model-based fair value for CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$11.43 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 7, 2026): C$23.84.
What is the quality score of CHEV?
CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CHEVRON (CHEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$11.43 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$7.80, optimistic scenario C$15.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$11.43, about −52% upside versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of C$23.84 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$7.80, optimistic scenario C$15.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) it is C$11.43 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of C$23.84. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, CHEV trades above its calculated fair value: price C$23.84, fair value C$11.43, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$23.84); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$11.43). For CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) the two are C$12.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) worth?
The market values CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) at about C$499B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is C$23.84; our models calculate a fair value of C$11.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHEV?
Our models span a range for CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED): cautious scenario C$7.80, base C$11.43, optimistic C$15.43 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price C$23.84). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHEV?
CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$11.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CHEV?
The PEG ratio of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 0.69 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) (as of Sep 28, 2026): debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHEV from its 52-week high?
CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) trades at C$23.84, about 12% below its 52-week high of C$27.19 and 27% above the low of C$18.84 (as of Aug 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$11.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED)?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Saudi Arabian Oil Company, Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation, PetroChina Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price C$23.84, calculated fair value C$11.43 (−52%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHEV calculated?
We run CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$11.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 7, 2026 and stands at C$23.84. Our model-based fair value is C$11.43, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$15.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (C$7.80 to C$15.43) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED)
How large is the market capitalisation of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
The market capitalisation of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is C$499B (≈ $350B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 1.62 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
The net margin of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CHEVRON (CHEV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is 9.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does CHEVRON (CHEV) generate?
The free cash flow of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is $16.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does CHEVRON (CHEV) carry?
The net debt of CHEVRON CDR (CAD HEDGED) is $33.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026