Chevron Corporation (CHEV) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$499B
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −6.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 65% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$11.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$5.62 to C$11.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range C$16.83 – C$27.19 · fair‑value band C$5.62 – C$11.14 · the C$22.88 price screens above the C$7.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Chevron Corporation (CHEV) currently trades at C$22.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$7.97, implying the stock looks roughly 65.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Net debt stands at C$33.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 24.3. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$5.62 (bear case) to C$11.14 (bull case); at C$22.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -11% fair-value upside, at -65%, CHEV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (C$9.59) versus Earnings-Based (C$4.69). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream.
Full company description
Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and processing, transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chevron Corporation reported revenue of C$184B in FY2025 versus C$156B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$12.3B in FY2025, compounding −5.8%/yr from FY2021.
CHEV screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Oil Company →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Integrated · 54 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabian Oil Company 2222 | 26.72 SAR | 20.14 SAR | -25% |
| Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | $144.51 | $90.37 | -37% |
| PetroChina Company 601857 | ¥10.29 | ¥16.51 | +60% |
| Shell plc SHELL | €38.04 | €46.09 | +21% |
| TotalEnergies SE TTE | C$13.80 | C$7.92 | -43% |
| Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 | 12,540 ARS | 30,914 ARS | +147% |
| BP p.l.c., an integrated energy company, BP | $40.83 | $12.71 | -69% |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 | ¥5.03 | ¥4.46 | -11% |
| Equinor ASA EQNR | $36.19 | $34.53 | -5% |
| Eni S.p.A ENI | €21.70 | €15.13 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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