Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Central Hydropower JSC VND 33,384, price VND 26,250, upside +27.2%, quality 86 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 10,913 VND – 33,248 VND · fair‑value band 26,535 VND – 40,979 VND · the 26,250 VND price screens below the 33,384 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Central Hydropower Joint Stock Company produces, transmits, and distributes electricity in Vietnam. The company invests in construction of hydropower projects, solar power plants, and wind energy facilities; and constructs electricity transmission lines, transformer stations, solar and wind power works.
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Central Hydropower Joint Stock Company produces, transmits, and distributes electricity in Vietnam. The company invests in construction of hydropower projects, solar power plants, and wind energy facilities; and constructs electricity transmission lines, transformer stations, solar and wind power works. It is also involved in afforestation and other forestry activities, and propagation of forest trees; business services in construction surveying; consulting on the construction of power projects; consulting and designing power grids and lighting systems; supervision consulting for equipment installation of power projects, as well as construction of irrigation works, hydropower plants, transmission lines and substations, solar power plants, and wind power plants; operations management and maintenance for power plants and industrial facilities; project management consulting for civil, industrial, infrastructure, agriculture, rural development, and road transport projects, as well as for hydropower plants, solar power plants, and wind power plants; contractor selection consulting; and geological exploration activities, such as leasing of non-financial intangible assets, construction of hydraulic structures, and other specialized construction activities. Central Hydropower Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Da Nang, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) currently trades at 26,250 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 33,384 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 21.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 41,920 VND per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the 26,250 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 8,959 VND, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 26,535 VND (bear) to 40,979 VND (bull), the price of 26,250 VND sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Central Hydropower JSC reported revenue of 999B VND in FY2025 versus 787B VND in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was 458B VND in FY2025, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 4.1T VND · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 4.74 · EPS (TTM) 2,542 VND · Dividend yield 7.4% · Net margin 45.9% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 27%, CHP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 26,535 VNDFair Value 33,384 VNDBull 40,979 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1,866 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
’19
’20
’21
’22
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 51%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 159 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+27% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)51% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
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Is Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 33,384 VND versus a price of 26,250 VND, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CHP?
Our model-based fair value for Central Hydropower JSC is 33,384 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 26,250 VND.
What is the quality score of CHP?
Central Hydropower JSC has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 33,384 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 26,535 VND, optimistic scenario 40,979 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Central Hydropower JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 33,384 VND, about +27% upside versus a price of 26,250 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 26,535 VND, optimistic scenario 40,979 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Central Hydropower JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 963B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Central Hydropower JSC pay a dividend?
Central Hydropower JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Central Hydropower JSC would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CHP use?
Our models discount Central Hydropower JSC at 16.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Central Hydropower JSC that is -0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Central Hydropower JSC grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies -0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Central Hydropower JSC (-0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.30 %: that much free cash flow Central Hydropower JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Central Hydropower JSC it is 33,384 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 26,250 VND. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Central Hydropower JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CHP trades below its calculated fair value: price 26,250 VND, fair value 33,384 VND, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (26,250 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (33,384 VND). For Central Hydropower JSC the two are 7,134 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Central Hydropower JSC worth?
The market values Central Hydropower JSC at about 4.1T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 26,250 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 33,384 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CHP?
Our models span a range for Central Hydropower JSC: cautious scenario 26,535 VND, base 33,384 VND, optimistic 40,979 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 26,250 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CHP?
Central Hydropower JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 33,384 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Central Hydropower JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CHP from its 52-week high?
Central Hydropower JSC trades at 26,250 VND, about 10% below its 52-week high of 29,240 VND and 3% above the low of 25,500 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 33,384 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Central Hydropower JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Central Hydropower JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 26,250 VND, calculated fair value 33,384 VND (+27%), Quality Score 86/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CHP calculated?
We run Central Hydropower JSC through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 33,384 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Central Hydropower JSC currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 26,250 VND. Our model-based fair value is 33,384 VND, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Central Hydropower JSC right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (86/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price sits below our cautious bear case: the market assumes less than even our pessimistic scenario. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Central Hydropower JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The market capitalisation of Central Hydropower JSC is 4.1T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Central Hydropower JSC is 4.74 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Earnings per share at Central Hydropower JSC are 2,542 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The dividend yield of Central Hydropower JSC is 7.4% (payout 76.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The net margin of Central Hydropower JSC is 45.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Central Hydropower JSC is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Central Hydropower JSC is 15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
The operating margin of Central Hydropower JSC is 51.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Revenue at Central Hydropower JSC is growing −15.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Central Hydropower JSC (CHP)?
Earnings per share at Central Hydropower JSC are growing −24.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Central Hydropower JSC (CHP) carry?
The net debt of Central Hydropower JSC is 134B VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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