Cardinal Energy Ltd (CJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$1.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from C$3.29 to C$3.72 (+13.2%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +0.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$4.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$1.87 – C$12.99 · fair‑value band C$2.41 – C$4.29 · the C$10.94 price screens above the C$3.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Cardinal Energy Ltd (CJ) currently trades at C$10.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$3.72, implying the stock looks roughly 66.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Cardinal Energy Ltd generated revenue of C$462M at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue grew 18.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at C$243M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$2.41 (bear case) to C$4.29 (bull case); at C$10.94, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -66%, CJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (C$8.46) versus Multiples (C$2.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cardinal Energy Ltd. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, optimization, and production of petroleum and natural gas in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan in Canada. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cardinal Energy Ltd reported revenue of C$439M in FY2025 versus C$449M in FY2021, a compound −0.5%/yr. Reported net income was C$20.8M in FY2025, compounding −48.0%/yr from FY2021.
CJ screens 66% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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