CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CMC Markets PLC stock £5.35, price £6.78, that is 21.1% below the price, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.8004 – £7.85 · fair‑value band £2.69 – £7.68 · the £6.78 price screens above the £5.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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CMC Markets Plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides a platform for investing, trading, and brokerage in the United Kingdom, Australia, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Trading and Investing.
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The Trading segment is involved in online trading that enables clients to trade a range of financial instruments, including contracts for difference and financial spread betting across various assets, such as shares, indices, foreign currencies, commodities, and treasuries for short-term investment and hedging purposes.
The Investing segment provides online stockbroking services. It serves retail, professional, stockbroking, and institutional clients. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) currently trades at £6.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.35, 21% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of £5.94 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the £6.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.16, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £2.69 (bear) to £7.68 (bull), the price of £6.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CMC Markets PLC reported revenue of £411M in FY2026 versus £324M in FY2022, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was £74.4M in FY2026, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £1.8B Mid · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 4.70 · EPS (TTM) £0.2700 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin 19.1% · Return on equity 16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 69 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 239% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −21%, CMCX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£2.69Fair Value £5.35Bull£7.68
Price £6.78 · Downside -21.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0803 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.6% vs 7.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.50% → 27%
2026 sits 64% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.8% a year for the price and +9.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Strong cash flows and margins support the business while a multi-year data agreement bolsters its technology base, but core retail activities remain exposed to client volume swings.
Main risk: Exposure of the core retail trading activity to swings in client volumes would directly hit revenue stability and margins.
CMC Markets recently signed a multi-year agreement with the London Stock Exchange Group that expands its access to real-time data, analytics and AI-ready content. This bolsters the technology base for its multi-asset platform and institutional offerings. At the same time the core retail trading activity stays exposed to swings in client volumes. Will the enhanced data infrastructure deliver enough new B2B stability to offset that volatility?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 384 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−21.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.9% · Above median
Return on assets7.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)24.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.35 versus a price of £6.78, about 21% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CMCX?
Our model-based fair value for CMC Markets PLC is £5.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £6.78.
What is the quality score of CMCX?
CMC Markets PLC has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £5.35 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.69, optimistic scenario £7.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CMC Markets PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £5.35, about 21% lower versus a price of £6.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £2.69, optimistic scenario £7.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
CMC Markets PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £390M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does CMC Markets PLC pay a dividend?
CMC Markets PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.04% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
CMC Markets PLC pays a dividend of £0.138 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 9, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2016. The payout ratio is 51.1% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.23 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CMC Markets PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.0 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMCX use?
Our models discount CMC Markets PLC at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CMC Markets PLC that is +17.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CMC Markets PLC grew -2.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CMC Markets PLC (+17.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.50 %: that much free cash flow CMC Markets PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CMC Markets PLC it is £5.35 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of £6.78. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is CMC Markets PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, CMCX trades above its calculated fair value: price £6.78, fair value £5.35, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMCX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£6.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£5.35). For CMC Markets PLC the two are £1.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CMC Markets PLC worth?
The market values CMC Markets PLC at about £1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is £6.78; our models calculate a fair value of £5.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMCX?
Our models span a range for CMC Markets PLC: cautious scenario £2.69, base £5.35, optimistic £7.68 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price £6.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMCX?
CMC Markets PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £5.35 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 10.1. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Balance-sheet figures for CMC Markets PLC (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 16.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMCX from its 52-week high?
CMC Markets PLC trades at £6.78, about 14% below its 52-week high of £7.85 and 239% above the low of £2.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £5.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CMC Markets PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CMC Markets PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price £6.78, calculated fair value £5.35 (−21%), Quality Score 70/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMCX calculated?
We run CMC Markets PLC through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of £5.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. CMC Markets PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was £6.78. Our model-based fair value is £5.35, about 21% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CMC Markets PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£2.69 to £7.68). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (70/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) come from?
Earnings per share at CMC Markets PLC grew +5.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.2 %, EBIT margin −3.3 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CMC Markets PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The market capitalisation of CMC Markets PLC is £1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CMC Markets PLC is 4.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Earnings per share at CMC Markets PLC are £0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The dividend yield of CMC Markets PLC is 2.0% (payout 51.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The net margin of CMC Markets PLC is 19.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CMC Markets PLC is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CMC Markets PLC is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
The operating margin of CMC Markets PLC is 24.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Revenue at CMC Markets PLC is growing +26.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CMC Markets PLC (CMCX)?
Earnings per share at CMC Markets PLC are growing +45.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does CMC Markets PLC (CMCX) hold?
CMC Markets PLC holds more cash than debt, £164M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026