Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada IDR 2,818, price IDR 1,390, upside +102.8%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,195 IDR – 3,970 IDR · fair‑value band 1,297 IDR – 4,326 IDR · the 1,390 IDR price screens below the 2,818 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, constructs, operates, and maintains toll roads in Indonesia. It provides trade, development, procurement, contractors, industry, land management, toll road support, and other services. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Jakarta Utara, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) currently trades at 1,390 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,818 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 3,659 IDR per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the 1,390 IDR price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 1,010 IDR, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1,297 IDR (bear) to 4,326 IDR (bull), the price of 1,390 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada reported revenue of 5.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.4T IDR in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was 1.0T IDR in FY2025, compounding +8.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.6T IDR (≈ $855M) · P/E ratio 8.0 · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) 174.04 IDR · Net margin 17.9% · Return on equity 6.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.9% · Operating margin 44.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 103%, CMNP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1,297 IDRFair Value 2,818 IDRBull 4,326 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (127.31 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 3%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 28%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price.
Compare Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 69 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+103% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)45% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)8.0× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.58× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,818 IDR versus a price of 1,390 IDR, about +103% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of CMNP?
Our model-based fair value for Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 2,818 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1,390 IDR.
What is the quality score of CMNP?
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2,818 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1,297 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,326 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2,818 IDR, about +103% upside versus a price of 1,390 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1,297 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,326 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.7T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada would have to grow free cash flow by +10.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CMNP use?
Our models discount Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada that is +10.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies +10.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (+10.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.84 %: that much free cash flow Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada it is 2,818 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1,390 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CMNP trades below its calculated fair value: price 1,390 IDR, fair value 2,818 IDR, a gap of about +103% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CMNP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1,390 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2,818 IDR). For Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada the two are 1,428 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada worth?
The market values Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada at about 8.6T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1,390 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 2,818 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMNP?
Our models span a range for Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada: cautious scenario 1,297 IDR, base 2,818 IDR, optimistic 4,326 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1,390 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CMNP?
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2,818 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 0.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of CMNP?
The PEG ratio of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 0.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.2%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CMNP from its 52-week high?
Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada trades at 1,390 IDR, about 29% below its 52-week high of 1,950 IDR and 12% above the low of 1,240 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2,818 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1,390 IDR, calculated fair value 2,818 IDR (+103%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CMNP calculated?
We run Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2,818 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada currently trades 103 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1,390 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 2,818 IDR, about +103% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada right now?
The model range is unusually wide (1,297 IDR to 4,326 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) come from?
Earnings per share at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada grew +4.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada
How large is the market capitalisation of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The market capitalisation of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 8.6T IDR (≈ $855M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 1.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Earnings per share at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada are 174.04 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The net margin of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 17.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 6.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
The operating margin of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 44.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Revenue at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is growing −5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP)?
Earnings per share at Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada (CMNP) carry?
The net debt of Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada is 5.8T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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