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Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Aug 7, 2026: fair value of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc $31.80, price $40.00, upside -20.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · US · Home Japan

Some data Sep 28, 2026

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc

CMTDF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $31.80 · Overvalued (−20.5%)

✓Quality 64/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +19.3 %/yr)

✓Solidly profitable · 19.0% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓0.9% dividend yield · Well covered

!Trails peers (5/14)

!Moderate moat 48/100

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on valuation: 6 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 17 out of 100

26 models, one by oneBear $28.82 to bull $43.58 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 64/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $8.51 – $40.00 · fair‑value band $28.82 – $43.58 · the $40.00 price screens above the $31.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.

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Company profile

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. operates as a trust bank in Japan and internationally. It operates through Wealth Management Business, Corporate Business, Investor Services Business, Real Estate Business, Global Markets Business, and Asset Management Business segments. The company offers services to individuals, corporate, investors, as well as to real estate business. It is also involved in marketing, market-making, investment, financial management, and asset management services operations. In addition, the company supervises management strategies, financial management, human resource management, corporate administrative management, operational process management, risk management, and compliance management; and manages internal auditing. Further, it provides financing, stock transfer agency operations, and consulting services; real estate brokerage; consulting services related to development, effective utilization, construction, and ESG considerations, as well as real estate custody functions; and foreign exchange, interest rates, and derivative products and services. The company was formerly known as Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. in October 2024. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Chiyoda, Japan.

Stock analysis

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) currently trades at $40.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.80, 20.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $37.96 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the $40.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $17.04, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $28.82 (bear) to $43.58 (bull), the price of $40.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥3.0T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +23.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥320B in FY2026, compounding +17.3%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $26.4B · P/E ratio 14.2 · P/S ratio 1.53 · EPS (TTM) $2.82 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −21%, CMTDF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $28.82 Fair Value $31.80 Bull $43.58

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

Residual Income $27.98 $30.52 $36.48 76

Gordon GGM $9.72 $20.21 $32.06 66

DDM Multi-Stage $9.72 $17.04 $21.21 66

All 6 models by family

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $9.72 $20.21 $32.06 66

DDM Multi-Stage $9.72 $17.04 $21.21 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $28.47 $37.96 $47.44 63

P/B Multiple $34.35 $45.80 $57.25 55

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $16.36 $21.92 $32.71 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $27.98 $30.52 $36.48 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80

Profitability 23

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 54

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 95

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 98

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 75

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 89

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 100

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 100

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+6.9%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+20.7%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+19.3%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year

Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.6%

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

16.3% (2021) → 14.5% (2026)

CMTDF screens overvalued: fair value 21% below the price. Compare with DBS Group →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral

Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (TSE:8309) Stock May Be 39% Undervalued On Equity Returns Yahoo Finance · Sep 22, 2026
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group (TSE:8309) Rallies As Investors Reassess Whether It Still Looks Undervalued Yahoo Finance · Sep 21, 2026
Is Sumitomo Mitsui Trust (TSE:8309) Still Undervalued? A Fresh Look at Its Current Valuation Yahoo Finance · Sep 9, 2025

Compare Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1052 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 74 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside −20.5% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 9.5% · Below median

Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) 19.0% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 13.6% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 25.8% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.2× · Pricier than median

P/B 1.16× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 2.49× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 5.8× · Cheapest 25%

PEG 2.55× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)6 · sector 12

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47

PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 41

HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 84

DIVIDEND (yield)17 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05	78.00 SGD	40.39 SGD	−48%
China Merchants Bank Co 600036	¥40.69	¥52.73	+30%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG	€79.53	€77.12	−3%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG	$11.05	$6.82	−38%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP	€6.38	€4.06	−36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP	€91.54	€105.99	+16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK	₹721.20	₹406.44	−44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39	32.01 SGD	19.78 SGD	−38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120	63.15 SAR	36.95 SAR	−41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK	€12.03	€8.46	−30%

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Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$31.80 −21%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTDF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$31.80</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−21%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CMTDF

Frequently asked questions

Is Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.80 versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $40.00, about −21% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of CMTDF?

Our model-based fair value for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is $31.80 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 7, 2026): $40.00.

What is the quality score of CMTDF?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.80 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $28.82, optimistic scenario $43.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $31.80, about −21% upside versus the last price from Aug 7, 2026 of $40.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $28.82, optimistic scenario $43.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.7T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).

Does Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc pay a dividend?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.85% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc it is $31.80 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $40.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 28, 2026, CMTDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $40.00, fair value $31.80, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of CMTDF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($40.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.80). For Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc the two are $8.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc worth?

The market values Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc at about $26.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $40.00; our models calculate a fair value of $31.80 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CMTDF?

Our models span a range for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $28.82, base $31.80, optimistic $43.58 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $40.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of CMTDF?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 1.2, P/S 2.5.

What is the PEG ratio of CMTDF?

The PEG ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 2.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 9.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is CMTDF from its 52-week high?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc trades at $40.00, at its 52-week high of $40.00 and 53% above the low of $26.20 (as of Aug 7, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.80 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc?

From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $40.00, calculated fair value $31.80 (−21%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of CMTDF calculated?

We run Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The latest price we hold is from Aug 7, 2026 and stands at $40.00. Our model-based fair value is $31.80, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc right now?

Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Where does the earnings growth of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) come from?

Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc grew +1.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin −5.1 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The market capitalisation of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is $26.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 1.53 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc are $2.82 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The dividend yield of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 0.9% (payout 12.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The net margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 10.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

The operating margin of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Revenue at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is growing +25.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF)?

Earnings per share at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc are growing +64.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) generate?

The free cash flow of Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc is ¥716B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc (CMTDF) hold?

Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, ¥3.3T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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