CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of CNO Financial Group Inc $16.66, price $54.02, upside -69.2%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.39 – $56.75 · fair‑value band $12.50 – $20.83 · the $54.02 price screens above the $16.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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CNO Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and administers health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products, and financial services for middle-income pre-retiree and retired Americans in the United States.
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CNO Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, markets, and administers health insurance, annuity, individual life insurance and other insurance products, and financial services for middle-income pre-retiree and retired Americans in the United States. It offers Medicare supplement, supplemental health, and long-term care insurance policies; life insurance; and annuities, as well as Medicare advantage plans to individual consumers through phone, virtually, online, and face-to-face with agents. The company also focuses on sale of voluntary benefit life and health insurance products for businesses, associations, and other membership groups by interacting with customers at their place of employment. In addition, it provides fixed indexed annuities; fixed interest annuities, including fixed rate single-premium deferred annuities; flexible premium deferred annuities; single premium immediate annuities; supplemental health products, such as specified disease, accident, and hospital indemnity products; and long-term care plans primarily to retirees, lesser degree, and older self-employed individuals in the middle-income market. Further, the company offers universal life and other interest-sensitive life products; and traditional life policies that include whole life, graded benefit life, term life, and single premium whole life products, as well as graded benefit life insurance products. It markets its products under the Bankers Life, Washington National, and Colonial Penn brand names. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Carmel, Indiana.
Stock analysis
CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) currently trades at $54.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.66, implying the stock looks roughly 224.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $31.93 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $54.02 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.90, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.50 (bear) to $20.83 (bull), the price of $54.02 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
CNO Financial Group Inc reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $4.1B in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $229M in FY2025, compounding −20.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $2.48 · Dividend yield 1.3% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −69%, CNO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.50Fair Value $16.66Bull $20.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.32 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare CNO Financial Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Life · 95 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.54× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Life median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)21.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B2.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.17× · Pricier than median
P/FCF7.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA8.7× · Pricier than median
PEG1.29× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)13· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)39· sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)23· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CNO Financial Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CNO
Frequently asked questions
Is CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.66 versus a price of $54.02, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNO?
Our model-based fair value for CNO Financial Group Inc is $16.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $54.02.
What is the quality score of CNO?
CNO Financial Group Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.66 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $20.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNO Financial Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.66, about −69% upside versus a price of $54.02 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.50, optimistic scenario $20.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
CNO Financial Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does CNO Financial Group Inc pay a dividend?
CNO Financial Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CNO Financial Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNO use?
Our models discount CNO Financial Group Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CNO Financial Group Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CNO Financial Group Inc grew +3.3 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CNO Financial Group Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.79 %: that much free cash flow CNO Financial Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNO Financial Group Inc it is $16.66 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $54.02. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNO Financial Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, CNO trades above its calculated fair value: price $54.02, fair value $16.66, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($54.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.66). For CNO Financial Group Inc the two are $37.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNO Financial Group Inc worth?
The market values CNO Financial Group Inc at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $54.02; our models calculate a fair value of $16.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNO?
Our models span a range for CNO Financial Group Inc: cautious scenario $12.50, base $16.66, optimistic $20.83 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $54.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNO?
CNO Financial Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.66 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3, P/B 2.0, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of CNO?
The PEG ratio of CNO Financial Group Inc is 1.29 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Balance-sheet figures for CNO Financial Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 1.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNO from its 52-week high?
CNO Financial Group Inc trades at $54.02, about 5% below its 52-week high of $56.75 and 42% above the low of $38.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNO Financial Group Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Life Insurance Company, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company, AIA Group, Manulife Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNO Financial Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $54.02, calculated fair value $16.66 (−69%), Quality Score 51/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNO calculated?
We run CNO Financial Group Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. CNO Financial Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $54.02. Our model-based fair value is $16.66, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNO Financial Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($20.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) come from?
Earnings per share at CNO Financial Group Inc grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.1 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CNO Financial Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The market capitalisation of CNO Financial Group Inc is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CNO Financial Group Inc is 1.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Earnings per share at CNO Financial Group Inc are $2.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The dividend yield of CNO Financial Group Inc is 1.3% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The net margin of CNO Financial Group Inc is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNO Financial Group Inc is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNO Financial Group Inc is 1.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
The operating margin of CNO Financial Group Inc is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Revenue at CNO Financial Group Inc is growing +2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO)?
Earnings per share at CNO Financial Group Inc are growing +85.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CNO Financial Group Inc (CNO) carry?
The net debt of CNO Financial Group Inc is $3.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026