Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Expand Energy Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $38.47 – $120.76 · fair‑value band $82.25 – $206.83 · the $87.65 price screens below the $159.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.
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Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas. Expand Energy Corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Spring, Texas.
Stock analysis
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) currently trades at $87.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $159.10, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $159.10 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $87.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $51.48, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $82.25 (bear) to $206.83 (bull), the price of $87.65 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Expand Energy Corporation reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.6B · P/E ratio 6.5 · P/S ratio 1.01 · EPS (TTM) $13.55 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 15.6% · Return on equity 17.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 82%, EXE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $82.25Fair Value $159.10Bull $206.83
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.41 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+176.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−27.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32% vs −34%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−167% → 18%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 38.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Expand Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 304 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−11% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expand Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXE
Frequently asked questions
Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $159.10 versus a price of $87.65, about +82% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXE?
Our model-based fair value for Expand Energy Corporation is $159.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $87.65.
What is the quality score of EXE?
Expand Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $159.10 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $82.25, optimistic scenario $206.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expand Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $159.10, about +82% upside versus a price of $87.65 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $82.25, optimistic scenario $206.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Expand Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Expand Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Expand Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.64% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Expand Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -1.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXE use?
Our models discount Expand Energy Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Expand Energy Corporation that is -1.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Expand Energy Corporation grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies -1.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Expand Energy Corporation (-1.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.82 %: that much free cash flow Expand Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expand Energy Corporation it is $159.10 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $87.65. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expand Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, EXE trades below its calculated fair value: price $87.65, fair value $159.10, a gap of about +82% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($87.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($159.10). For Expand Energy Corporation the two are $71.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expand Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Expand Energy Corporation at about $22.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $87.65; our models calculate a fair value of $159.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXE?
Our models span a range for Expand Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $82.25, base $159.10, optimistic $206.83 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $87.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXE?
Expand Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.5 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $159.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 4.0.
What is the PEG ratio of EXE?
The PEG ratio of Expand Energy Corporation is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Expand Energy Corporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXE from its 52-week high?
Expand Energy Corporation trades at $87.65, about 30% below its 52-week high of $125.18 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $159.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expand Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expand Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $87.65, calculated fair value $159.10 (+82%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXE calculated?
We run Expand Energy Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $159.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Expand Energy Corporation currently trades 82 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $87.65. Our model-based fair value is $159.10, about +82% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expand Energy Corporation right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($82.25 to $206.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Expand Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The market capitalisation of Expand Energy Corporation is $22.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expand Energy Corporation is 1.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Earnings per share at Expand Energy Corporation are $13.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The dividend yield of Expand Energy Corporation is 3.6% (payout 23.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The net margin of Expand Energy Corporation is 15.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expand Energy Corporation is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expand Energy Corporation is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The operating margin of Expand Energy Corporation is 34.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Revenue at Expand Energy Corporation is growing +41.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) carry?
The net debt of Expand Energy Corporation is $4.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026