Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Expand Energy Corporation stock $165, price $85.34, upside +93.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.88 – $120.76 · fair‑value band $89.00 – $214.24 · the $85.34 price screens below the $164.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Expand Energy Corporation operates as an independent natural gas production company in the United States. The company engages in acquisition, exploration, and development of properties to produce oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids.
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It holds interests in the Marcellus Shale in the northern Appalachian Basin in Pennsylvania; the Marcellus and Utica Shales in Ohio and West Virginia; and the Haynesville and Bossier Shales in Louisiana and Texas.
Expand Energy Corporation was formerly known as Chesapeake Energy Corporation and changed its name to Expand Energy Corporation in October 2024. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Spring, Texas.
Stock analysis
Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) currently trades at $85.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $164.80, implying the stock looks roughly 48% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $179.00 per share, and 17 of the 26 models we run sit above the $85.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $53.89, and 9 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $89.00 (bear) to $214.24 (bull), the price of $85.34 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Expand Energy Corporation reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $7.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.3B Large · P/E ratio 7.4 · P/S ratio 1.57 · EPS (TTM) $11.59 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 21.3% · Return on equity 14.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 66 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 93%, EXE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$89.00Fair Value $164.80Bull$214.24
Price $85.34 · Upside +93.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.89 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $560,880, most recently on Jun 12, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyMichael WichterichInterim President and CEO, Director3× since Mar 6, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $99.32$397,260Jun 12, 2026
BuyMarcel TeunissenEVP & CFO2× since May 7, 2026: 4,000 shares, avg. $94.66$378,620Jun 4, 2026
BuyMatthew GallagherDirector1,000 shares at $100.66$100,660Feb 19, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+176.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.9% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−28.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−30.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−32.4% vs −34.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−167% → 18%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 38.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.1% a year for the price and −7.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Average moat with no standout durable advantages defines this E&P commodity producer, whose main strength is output flexibility while moderate profitability reflects standard industry exposure.
Main risk: Stricter EPA methane rules, emissions charges and evolving climate policies could raise compliance costs or constrain operations in key basins such as Haynesville and Appalachia.
Bull case: Expand could leverage its scale and AI-driven efficiencies from partnerships like Baker Hughes and Thoughtworks plus the Twin Eagle platform to capture LNG and data center demand while managing regulatory costs.
Bear case: If regulatory burdens increase and associated gas supply keeps prices suppressed, higher costs combined with compressed margins could force production cuts or limit growth across its natural gas operations.
Expand Energy delivered a solid earnings beat thanks to stronger liquids prices and the early contribution from its Twin Eagle marketing acquisition. At the same time the company reduced its rig count and deferred wells in direct response to weak natural gas prices, signaling it will stay flexible with output into 2027. Our models currently see the shares as undervalued. Can the expanding marketing platform offset near-term production discipline enough to support results, or will softer gas realizations dominate the next few quarters?
Compare Expand Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+93.1% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.6% · Above median
Return on assets6.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)21.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)23.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Expand Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXE
Frequently asked questions
Is Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $164.80 versus a price of $85.34, about +93% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EXE?
Our model-based fair value for Expand Energy Corporation is $164.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $85.34.
What is the quality score of EXE?
Expand Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $164.80 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $89.00, optimistic scenario $214.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Expand Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $164.80, about +93% upside versus a price of $85.34 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $89.00, optimistic scenario $214.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Expand Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Expand Energy Corporation pay a dividend?
Expand Energy Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Expand Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -1.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXE use?
Our models discount Expand Energy Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Expand Energy Corporation that is -1.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Expand Energy Corporation grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies -1.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Expand Energy Corporation (-1.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.04 %: that much free cash flow Expand Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Expand Energy Corporation it is $164.80 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $85.34. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Expand Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, EXE trades below its calculated fair value: price $85.34, fair value $164.80, a gap of about +93% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($85.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($164.80). For Expand Energy Corporation the two are $79.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Expand Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Expand Energy Corporation at about $20.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $85.34; our models calculate a fair value of $164.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXE?
Our models span a range for Expand Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $89.00, base $164.80, optimistic $214.24 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $85.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EXE?
Expand Energy Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.4 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $164.80 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.1, P/S 1.6, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
What is the PEG ratio of EXE?
The PEG ratio of Expand Energy Corporation is 0.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Expand Energy Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 14.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXE from its 52-week high?
Expand Energy Corporation trades at $85.34, about 29% below its 52-week high of $120.76 and 1% above the low of $84.09 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $164.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Expand Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Expand Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $85.34, calculated fair value $164.80 (+93%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXE calculated?
We run Expand Energy Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $164.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Expand Energy Corporation currently trades 48% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $85.34. Our model-based fair value is $164.80, about +93% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Expand Energy Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($89.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($89.00 to $214.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Expand Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The market capitalisation of Expand Energy Corporation is $20.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Expand Energy Corporation is 1.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Earnings per share at Expand Energy Corporation are $11.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The dividend yield of Expand Energy Corporation is 2.7% (payout 19.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The net margin of Expand Energy Corporation is 21.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Expand Energy Corporation is 14.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Expand Energy Corporation is 14.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
The operating margin of Expand Energy Corporation is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Revenue at Expand Energy Corporation is growing +11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)?
Earnings per share at Expand Energy Corporation are growing −1.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) carry?
The net debt of Expand Energy Corporation is $4.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026