Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · BR · Market cap R$4.5B (≈ $873M)
What is Cogna Educação S.A really worth?
A solid business, trading 66% below our fair value of R$6.88.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Share price +2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$4.48). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (R$4.48 to R$8.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8373 – R$11.70 · fair‑value band R$4.48 – R$8.60 · the R$2.34 price screens below the R$6.88 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) currently trades at R$2.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.88, implying the stock looks roughly 66.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$8.18 per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$2.34 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$0.9100, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Cogna Educação S.A generated revenue of R$7.5B at a net margin of 8.9%. Revenue grew 31.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.7%. Net debt stands at R$6.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$4.48 (bear case) to R$8.60 (bull case); at R$2.34, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at 194%, COGN3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly R$0.1584 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$8.18) versus Dividend Discount (R$0.9100). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 33
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber. The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts.
Full company description
Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber. The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts. It also offers basic education, pre-university preparatory courses, and language courses; educational solutions for technical and higher education; and complementary activities, such as education technology development for services to complement management and training. In addition, the company advises on and/or facilitates direct and indirect financing for students; and develops software for adaptive teaching and academic management optimization. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Cogna Educação S.A reported revenue of R$7.0B in FY2025 versus R$4.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$626M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 149 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDU | $57.72 | $48.37 | −16% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $11.69 | $15.60 | +33% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $38.36 | $41.45 | +8% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹119.46 | ₹13.69 | −89% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $151.19 | $152.01 | +1% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $128.22 | $135.45 | +6% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $84.58 | $139.45 | +65% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $25.64 | $20.98 | −18% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $33.81 | $40.65 | +20% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $85.31 | $105.48 | +24% |
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