Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value of Cogna Educação S.A BRL 6.87, price BRL 2.89, upside +137.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8373 – R$11.70 · fair‑value band R$5.15 – R$8.58 · the R$2.89 price screens below the R$6.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Cogna Educação S.A. operates as an educational organization in Brazil and internationally. It operates through three segments: Kroton, Vasta, and Saber.
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The company provides in-person and distance learning for higher education and postgraduate courses; and editing, marketing, and distribution of textbooks, paradidactic books and handouts.
It also offers basic education, pre-university preparatory courses, and language courses; educational solutions for technical and higher education; and complementary activities, such as education technology development for services to complement management and training.
In addition, the company advises on and/or facilitates direct and indirect financing for students; and develops software for adaptive teaching and academic management optimization. The company was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) currently trades at R$2.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.87, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$10.67 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$2.89 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$0.7700, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R$5.15 (bear) to R$8.58 (bull), the price of R$2.89 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Cogna Educação S.A reported revenue of R$7.0B in FY2025 versus R$4.8B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was R$626M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$5.8B (≈ $1.1B) · P/E ratio 7.6 · P/S ratio 0.68 · EPS (TTM) R$0.3800 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 8.9% · Return on equity 4.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at 138%, COGN3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$5.15Fair Value R$6.87BullR$8.58
Price R$2.89 · Upside +137.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.2193 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.9% vs −9.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 20%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.1% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 118 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside+137.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.6% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)9.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)17.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.8% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)7.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.43× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$6.87 versus a price of R$2.89, about +138% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COGN3?
Our model-based fair value for Cogna Educação S.A is R$6.87 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$2.89.
What is the quality score of COGN3?
Cogna Educação S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$6.87 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.15, optimistic scenario R$8.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cogna Educação S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$6.87, about +138% upside versus a price of R$2.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$5.15, optimistic scenario R$8.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Cogna Educação S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$7.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Cogna Educação S.A pay a dividend?
Cogna Educação S.A currently shows a dividend yield of 3.60% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Cogna Educação S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -3.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of COGN3 use?
Our models discount Cogna Educação S.A at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Cogna Educação S.A that is -3.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Cogna Educação S.A grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies -3.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Cogna Educação S.A (-3.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.70 %: that much free cash flow Cogna Educação S.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cogna Educação S.A it is R$6.87 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of R$2.89. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cogna Educação S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, COGN3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$2.89, fair value R$6.87, a gap of about +138% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COGN3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$2.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$6.87). For Cogna Educação S.A the two are R$3.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cogna Educação S.A worth?
The market values Cogna Educação S.A at about R$5.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is R$2.89; our models calculate a fair value of R$6.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COGN3?
Our models span a range for Cogna Educação S.A: cautious scenario R$5.15, base R$6.87, optimistic R$8.58 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price R$2.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of COGN3?
Cogna Educação S.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.6 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$6.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cogna Educação S.A (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 4.9%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COGN3 from its 52-week high?
Cogna Educação S.A trades at R$2.89, about 37% below its 52-week high of R$4.57 and 42% above the low of R$2.03 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$6.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cogna Educação S.A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cogna Educação S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price R$2.89, calculated fair value R$6.87 (+138%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COGN3 calculated?
We run Cogna Educação S.A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$6.87, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Cogna Educação S.A currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was R$2.89. Our model-based fair value is R$6.87, about +138% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cogna Educação S.A right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$5.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Cogna Educação S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The market capitalisation of Cogna Educação S.A is R$5.8B (≈ $1.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cogna Educação S.A is 0.68 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Earnings per share at Cogna Educação S.A are R$0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The dividend yield of Cogna Educação S.A is 3.6% (payout 27.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The net margin of Cogna Educação S.A is 8.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cogna Educação S.A is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cogna Educação S.A is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
The operating margin of Cogna Educação S.A is 17.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Revenue at Cogna Educação S.A is growing +17.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3)?
Earnings per share at Cogna Educação S.A are growing +34.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Cogna Educação S.A (COGN3) carry?
The net debt of Cogna Educação S.A is R$6.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 1, 2026