Grand Canyon Education, Inc (LOPE) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $4.0B
Grand Canyon Education, Inc
LOPE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price +1.2% over the past month.
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from $110.34 (bear) to $190.84 (bull), base $152.01. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 86/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $70.22 – $220.55 · fair‑value band $110.34 – $190.84 · the $152.53 price screens above the $152.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Grand Canyon Education, Inc (LOPE) currently trades at $152.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $152.01, implying the stock looks roughly 0.3% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grand Canyon Education, Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue grew 6.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 29.8%. Net debt stands at $88.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $110.34 (bear case) to $190.84 (bull case); at $152.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 0%, LOPE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($163.41) versus Dividend Discount ($1.53). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 83 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States. The company provides technology services, including learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; and academic services, such as program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and …
Full company description
Grand Canyon Education, Inc. operates as an education services company in the United States. The company provides technology services, including learning management system, internal administration, infrastructure, and support services; and academic services, such as program and curriculum, faculty and related training and development, class scheduling, and skills and simulation lab sites. It also offers counseling services and support, which includes admission services, financial aid, counseling services, and field experience counseling; marketing and communication services, including lead acquisition, digital communications strategy, brand identity, media planning and strategy, video, business intelligence, analytics, and data science, and market research and insights; and back-office services, such as finance and accounting, human resources, audit, and procurement services. In addition, it provides education services to 20 university partners. Grand Canyon Education, Inc. was formerly known as Significant Education, Inc. and changed its name to Grand Canyon Education, Inc. in August 2005. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grand Canyon Education, Inc reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $897M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was $216M in FY2025, compounding −4.5%/yr from FY2021.
Watch LOPE: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Grand Canyon Education Inc (LOPE) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Beat and Strategic ...
- Grand Canyon Education (LOPE) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2026 RESULTS
- Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call Details
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 897.37 MXN | -7% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $10.24 | $15.60 | +52% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.45 | $41.45 | +14% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹131.59 | ₹14.81 | -89% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $116.22 | $135.45 | +17% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $83.39 | $139.45 | +67% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $40.33 | $21.35 | -47% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.66 | $41.45 | +31% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $84.18 | $105.48 | +25% |
| McGraw Hill, Inc MH | $9.70 | $4.06 | -58% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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