Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. stock $27.33, price $43.56, that is 37.3% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
27‑month range $18.52 – $43.56 · fair‑value band $12.56 – $37.27 · the $43.56 price screens above the $27.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. provides occupational health services in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Occupational Health centers, Onsite health clinics, and Other business.
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It offers occupational health services, including workers compensation, employer, and consumer health services; and employer-sponsored primary care services at workplace, including mobile health and episodic specialty testing services.
It also operates Concentra Telemed, a telemedicine platform for the treatment of work-related injuries and illnesses; Concentra Pharmacy for distributing repackaged medications; and Concentra Medical Compliance Administration, a third-party administrator that helps to manage abuse testing programs for employers with regulated or non-regulated workforces.
In addition, the company provides injury care, primary care, urgent care, preventive care, clinical testing, physical examinations and evaluations, drug and alcohol screenings, clinical testing, vaccinations and other preventive care, and a range of consultative services designed to protect employees from workplace hazards.
The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Addison, Texas.
Stock analysis
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) currently trades at $43.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.33, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $28.66 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $43.56 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.04, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.56 (bear) to $37.27 (bull), the price of $43.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $173M in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.6B Mid · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 2.44 · EPS (TTM) $1.58 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 8.7% · Return on equity 47.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 135% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −37%, CON screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.56Fair Value $27.33Bull$37.27
Price $43.56 · Downside -37.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.13 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $14.6M and none bought.
SaleRobert A OrtenzioDirector4× since May 8, 2026: 520,000 shares, avg. $28.09$14.6MAug 3, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus one other filing such as a grant, option exercise or tax withholding. It is not a market purchase or sale.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 15%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.1% a year for the price and +3.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Extensive U.S. network with high daily patient volumes forms the core strength, while uncertainty from upcoming executive changes and elevated leverage mark the main weaknesses.
Main risk: Elevated leverage near 4x debt to equity risks constraining cash resources and limiting flexibility for further center expansions.
Concentra operates the largest U.S. network of occupational health centers, delivering employer-focused services to roughly 54,000 patients daily across 46 states. Steady expansion through new sites pairs with an imminent shift to a new CEO and CFO on November 1. Does this operational scale create more lasting value than the uncertainty around management continuity in a competitive medical facilities space?
Compare Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−37.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)47.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.98× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)27.6× · Pricier than median
P/B14.20× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.44× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow28.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)50· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)11· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CON
Frequently asked questions
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.33 versus a price of $43.56, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CON?
Our model-based fair value for Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is $27.33 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.56.
What is the quality score of CON?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.33 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.56, optimistic scenario $37.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.33, about 37% lower versus a price of $43.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $12.56, optimistic scenario $37.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. pay a dividend?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.57% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CON use?
Our models discount Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.63, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. that is +17.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies +17.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (+17.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.53 %: that much free cash flow Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. it is $27.33 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $43.56. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, CON trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.56, fair value $27.33, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CON?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.33). For Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. the two are $16.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. worth?
The market values Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. at about $5.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $43.56; our models calculate a fair value of $27.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CON?
Our models span a range for Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.: cautious scenario $12.56, base $27.33, optimistic $37.27 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $43.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CON?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.33 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 14.2, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Balance-sheet figures for Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 47.1%, debt of 3.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CON from its 52-week high?
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. trades at $43.56, at its 52-week high of $43.56 and 135% above the low of $18.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $43.56, calculated fair value $27.33 (−37%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CON calculated?
We run Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $27.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $43.56. Our model-based fair value is $27.33, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($37.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($12.56 to $37.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The market capitalisation of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is $5.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 2.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Earnings per share at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. are $1.58 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The dividend yield of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 0.6% (payout 15.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The net margin of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 8.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 47.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 11.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
The operating margin of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is 19.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Revenue at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is growing +10.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON)?
Earnings per share at Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. are growing +47.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. (CON) carry?
The net debt of Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. is $2.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026