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Concentra Group (CON) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.0B

CG Concentra Group logo Concentra Group CON · US
Price$30.54
Fair Value$28.42
Upside-6.9%
Quality71/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 8.0% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
0.80% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range $10.98 – $37.14 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price −3.4% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($10.98 to $37.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
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Price vs Fair Value (2 years)

$32.69 $18.56 Fair Value $28.42 Jul 2024 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

24‑month range $18.56 – $32.69 · fair‑value band $10.98 – $37.14 · the $30.54 price screens above the $28.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Concentra Group (CON) currently trades at $30.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $28.42, implying the stock looks roughly 6.9% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Concentra Group generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of 8.0%. Revenue grew 13.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.0%. Net debt stands at $2.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $10.98 (bear case) to $37.14 (bull case); at $30.54, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -7%, CON screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $5.52 $13.73 $25.19 80
Residual Income $10.88 $17.93 $294.14 76
Rev-Margin DCF $12.65 $29.50 $49.15 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $5.34 $14.81 $28.95 38
Owner Earnings $2.70 $10.68 $22.62 31
5Y Revenue Exit $12.65 $29.78 $52.05 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $89.05 $174.84 $277.58 41
5Y P/E Exit $6.08 $17.31 $29.20 38
10Y Revenue Exit $8.87 $23.69 $44.33 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $57.66 $122.95 $214.95 37
10Y P/E Exit $5.63 $15.16 $27.05 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.18 $30.71 $41.13 54
Lynch FV $6.98 $9.97 $12.96 50
PEG = 1.0 $6.98 $9.97 $12.96 46
EPV $121.88 $142.96 $161.14 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.20 $4.39 $6.64 70
DDM Multi-Stage $2.20 $3.70 $4.63 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple $20.26 $27.01 $33.76 63
P/S Multiple $17.22 $22.96 $28.70 58
P/B Multiple $6.92 $9.22 $11.53 55
EV/EBIT $208.65 $282.06 $355.47 53
EV/EBITDA $153.24 $208.19 $263.14 54
EV/Revenue $17.99 $30.67 $43.35 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.54 $2.06 $3.07 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $5.52 $13.73 $25.19 80
Rev-Margin DCF $12.65 $29.50 $49.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.88 $17.93 $294.14 76
ROIC Compounder $125.85 $152.06 $177.65 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $17.28 $24.69 $32.09 68

Widest divergence: Multiples ($27.01) versus Asset-Based ($2.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $2.2B
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.7%
Net margin 8.0%
Return on equity 47.0%
Free cash flow $197M FY2025
P/E ratio 22.5
More key figures
Operating margin 17.0%
EPS (TTM) $1.40
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.4%
Net debt $2.0B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 74
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. provides occupational health services in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Occupational Health centers, Onsite health clinics, and Other business.

Full company description

Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. provides occupational health services in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Occupational Health centers, Onsite health clinics, and Other business. It offers occupational health services, including workers compensation, employer, and consumer health services; and employer-sponsored primary care services at workplace, including mobile health and episodic specialty testing services. It also operates Concentra Telemed, a telemedicine platform for the treatment of work-related injuries and illnesses; Concentra Pharmacy for distributing repackaged medications; and Concentra Medical Compliance Administration, a third-party administrator that helps to manage abuse testing programs for employers with regulated or non-regulated workforces. In addition, the company provides injury care, primary care, urgent care, preventive care, clinical testing, physical examinations and evaluations, drug and alcohol screenings, clinical testing, vaccinations and other preventive care, and a range of consultative services designed to protect employees from workplace hazards. The company was founded in 1979 and is based in Addison, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Concentra Group reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $173M in FY2025, compounding −4.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.2B
Latest YoY
+13.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+7.9%
Revenue +5.7%/yr
FY21 $1.7B
FY22 $1.7B
FY23 $1.8B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $2.2B
Net income −4.6%/yr
FY21 $209M
FY22 $167M
FY23 $180M
FY24 $167M
FY25 $173M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Concentra Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CON

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 262 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −7% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.8% · Below median
Debt / equity 3.98× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 22.5× · Pricier than median
P/B 10.27× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.81× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 20.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.6× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 24 · sector 23
FUTURE 69 · sector 24
PAST 100 · sector 30
HEALTH 0 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 16 · sector 38

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA $378.85 $554.93 +46%
Fresenius SE FRE €41.73 €32.15 -23%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 235.00 SAR 112.37 SAR -52%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F 2.76 SGD 1.28 SGD -54%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC $194.91 $338.05 +73%
Rede D'Or São Luiz S.A RDOR3 R$36.01 R$47.31 +31%
DaVita Inc DVA $231.61 $255.97 +11%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP ₹8,955 ₹2,955 -67%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FMS $24.68 $45.60 +85%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 ¥8.68 ¥7.67 -12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Concentra Group (CON) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $28.42 versus a price of $30.54, about −7% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CON?
Our model-based fair value for Concentra Group is $28.42 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $30.54.
What is the quality score of CON?
Concentra Group has a Quality Score of 71/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Concentra Group (CON)?
Concentra Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CON?
The net profit margin of Concentra Group is about 8.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Concentra Group pay a dividend?
Concentra Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.00% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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