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Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. (COXE) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · ES · Market cap €320M

CE Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. COXE · MC
Price from Aug 11, 2026€1.73
Fair Value€3.74
Upside+116.2%
Quality41/100
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Strengths

Trades 54% below our fair value of €3.74
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +289.0 %/yr)
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +289.0 %/yr)
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
Narrow moat 40/100
Evidence: Medium Range €2.23 – €4.86 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 27, 2026, revised from €3.76 to €3.74 (−0.5%) since Aug 13, 2026.

Below-average quality, trading 54% below our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (€2.23). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • A fairly wide model range (€2.23 to €4.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

€2.83 €1.17 Fair Value €3.74 Jul 2023 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

37‑month range €1.17 – €2.83 · fair‑value band €2.23 – €4.86 · the €1.73 price screens below the €3.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.

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Analysis

Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. (COXE) currently trades at €1.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.74, implying the stock looks roughly 116.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. generated revenue of €10.2B at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 23.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.6%. Net debt stands at €748M. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €2.23 (bear case) to €4.86 (bull case); at €1.73, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 116%, COXE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €0.9823 €1.76 €2.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF €3.92 €7.85 €15.99 74
ROIC Compounder €3.93 €5.24 €6.72 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €1.06 €1.58 €3.15 38
Owner Earnings €2.99 €6.29 €12.42 31
5Y Revenue Exit €3.51 €6.86 €13.94 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €4.46 €8.79 €17.31 41
5Y P/E Exit €1.07 €2.46 €4.33 38
10Y Revenue Exit €2.53 €7.17 €10.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €3.33 €9.05 €19.50 37
10Y P/E Exit €1.07 €2.40 €4.55 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.5816 €4.05 €5.69 54
Lynch FV €2.09 €2.99 €3.89 50
PEG = 1.0 €2.09 €2.99 €3.89 46
EPV €3.36 €3.83 €4.22 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €1.15 €1.54 €1.92 63
P/S Multiple €1.09 €1.45 €1.82 58
P/B Multiple €0.6562 €0.8751 €1.09 55
EV/EBIT €5.30 €7.10 €8.90 53
EV/EBITDA €5.97 €7.99 €10.01 54
EV/Revenue €4.27 €6.14 €8.01 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.2430 €0.3256 €0.4864 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.9823 €1.76 €2.99 80
Rev-Margin DCF €3.92 €7.85 €15.99 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €0.4884 €0.6487 €1.80 61
ROIC Compounder €3.93 €5.24 €6.72 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €2.62 €3.74 €4.86 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€6.29) versus Asset-Based (€0.3256). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 43.3
P/S ratio 1.27 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.0400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.3
Net margin 2.9% FY2025
Return on equity 16.6% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) -2.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin -1.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €10.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) -23.8% 3y avg +193%
EPS growth (YoY) +632%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €311M FY2025
Net debt €748M FY2025 · ≈ 2.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 28
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 26
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 49
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Cox Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the management, development, and operation of portfolio of renewable energy projects in Europe and Latin America. It develops and operates photovoltaic solar assets.

Full company description

Cox Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. engages in the management, development, and operation of portfolio of renewable energy projects in Europe and Latin America. It develops and operates photovoltaic solar assets. The company operates a portfolio of projects with a capacity of 1,808 MWh located in Mexico, Panama, Guatemala, Algeria, Brazil, Switzerland, Colombia, Latin America, Chile, Central America, Spain, and the Caribbean. It is also involved in the provision of project development, financing, asset management, energy supply, and operation and maintenance services. The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico. Cox Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. is a subsidiary of Cox ABG Group, S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of 10.8B MXN in FY2025 versus 23.6M MXN in FY2021, a compound +362.1%/yr. Reported net income was 316M MXN in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€10.8B
Latest YoY
+113.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+193.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+289.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+153.4%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Revenue +362.1%/yr
FY21 23.6M MXN
FY22 427M MXN
FY23 1.2B MXN
FY24 5.0B MXN
FY25 10.8B MXN
Net income
FY21 −427M MXN
FY22 −270M MXN
FY23 −271M MXN
FY24 211M MXN
FY25 316M MXN

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COXE

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 217 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside +116% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -24% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.92× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 9
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST66 · sector 12
HEALTH54 · sector 68
DIVIDEND0 · sector 46

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.96 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 141.30 kr 31.40 -78%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.79 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,319 ₹169.61 -87%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.49 -12%
VERBUND AG OEWA €57.00 €66.19 +16%
BEP BEP $32.49 $70.40 +117%
BEPUN BEPUN C$45.05 C$42.83 -5%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.80 €13.55 -32%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥15.92 ¥7.55 -53%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. (COXE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.74 versus the last price from Aug 11, 2026 of €1.73, about +116% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COXE?
Our model-based fair value for Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. is €3.74 (as of Aug 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 11, 2026): €1.73.
What is the quality score of COXE?
Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. (COXE)?
Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €10.2B (latest available figure, as of Aug 27, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of COXE?
The net profit margin of Cox Energy América, S.A.B. de C.V. is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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