Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $82.5B
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
CP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from $49.10 to $35.00 (−28.7%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +1.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 61% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($61.31). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($31.01 to $61.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.16 – $93.71 · fair‑value band $31.01 – $61.31 · the $90.25 price screens above the $35.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) currently trades at $90.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.00, implying the stock looks roughly 61.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited generated revenue of $15.0B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. Net debt stands at $23.0B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $31.01 (bear case) to $61.31 (bull case); at $90.25, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -61%, CP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($83.35) versus Dividend Discount ($13.67). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
Full company description
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported revenue of $15.1B in FY2025 versus $8.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.1B in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2021.
CP screens 61% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSX:CP) Names Gordon Trafton Chair As Isabelle Courville Retires
- Hedge Funds Favor Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Over Canadian Pacific (CP): UNP Beat Earnings and Just Got a Major Win
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd (CP) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and ...
- Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Peer Group
Railroads · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.51 | €10.42 | -44% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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