Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock $38.28, price $93.76, that is 59.2% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.03 – $96.48 · fair‑value band $16.86 – $64.79 · the $93.76 price screens above the $38.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
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The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers.
The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) currently trades at $93.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.28, 59% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $62.69 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $93.76 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $8.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.86 (bear) to $64.79 (bull), the price of $93.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported revenue of C$15.1B in FY2025 versus C$8.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.1B in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $83.2B Large · P/E ratio 30.1 · P/S ratio 8.28 · EPS (TTM) $3.11 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 77 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −59%, CP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($3.31 to $71.73). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$16.86Fair Value $38.28Bull$64.79
Price $93.76 · Downside -59.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.06 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.7% vs 10.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.43% → 37%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.4% a year for the price and +3.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (85 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Rail network scale and operational processes support a moderate moat with evident pricing power for bulk commodities, yet limited human capital and innovation signals remain the main constraint on quality.
Main risk: Alliances such as CN with UP and Ferromex via Falcon Premium could divert intermodal and other traffic from CPKC single-line routes to competing offerings with faster transit times, reducing volumes on North American corridors.
Bull case: CPKC could strengthen its single-line network advantage through further operational integrations and targeted partnerships to retain or gain share against rival interline services while navigating grain caps via efficiency gains.
Bear case: Rival alliances might capture significant cross-border intermodal volumes while repeated grain cap exceedances trigger ongoing repayments and constrain revenue growth on bulk commodities, pressuring overall network utilisation.
CPKC just set new September and third-quarter records for moving grain and grain products across its Canadian and US networks. These volumes underscore the value of its single-line North American reach for bulk commodities. Our models still see the shares as overvalued. Does the grain momentum reinforce the core business enough to shift that view, or do broader cost and volume risks outweigh it?
Compare Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−59.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Return on assets4.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)25.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)39.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)12.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.54× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)7.55× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow53.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.22× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)14· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CP
Frequently asked questions
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.28 versus a price of $93.76, about 59% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CP?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is $38.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $93.76.
What is the quality score of CP?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.86, optimistic scenario $64.79. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.28, about 59% lower versus a price of $93.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.86, optimistic scenario $64.79. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$15.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited pay a dividend?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +32.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CP use?
Our models discount Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited that is +32.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited grew +14.4 % a year. The price currently implies +32.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (+32.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.86 %: that much free cash flow Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited it is $38.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $93.76. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CP trades above its calculated fair value: price $93.76, fair value $38.28, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($93.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.28). For Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited the two are $55.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited worth?
The market values Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited at about $83.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $93.76; our models calculate a fair value of $38.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CP?
Our models span a range for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited: cautious scenario $16.86, base $38.28, optimistic $64.79 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $93.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CP?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 2.5, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 16.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CP?
The PEG ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 2.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CP from its 52-week high?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited trades at $93.76, about 3% below its 52-week high of $96.48 and 37% above the low of $68.29 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Norfolk Southern Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $93.76, calculated fair value $38.28 (−59%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CP calculated?
We run Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $93.76. Our model-based fair value is $38.28, about 59% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($64.79). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($16.86 to $64.79). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is $83.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 8.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Earnings per share at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited are $3.11 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The dividend yield of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 0.7% (payout 21.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The net margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 27.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
The operating margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 39.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Revenue at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)?
Earnings per share at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited are growing −13.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP) carry?
The net debt of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is C$23.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026