CSX Corporation (CSX) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $91.8B
CSX Corporation
CSX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $12.79 to $12.85 (+0.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 75% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($32.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($9.73 to $32.11). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.14 – $53.23 · fair‑value band $9.73 – $32.11 · the $50.70 price screens above the $12.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
CSX Corporation (CSX) currently trades at $50.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.85, implying the stock looks roughly 74.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CSX Corporation generated revenue of $14.2B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 1.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.7%. Net debt stands at $18.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.73 (bear case) to $32.11 (bull case); at $50.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -75%, CSX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($23.57) versus Growth DCF ($3.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking.
Full company description
CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services in the United States and Canada. It operates through two segments: rail and trucking. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It also transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, minerals, automotive, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. In addition, the company provides intermodal services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 20,000 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 26 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns 3400 locomotives. It serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CSX Corporation reported revenue of $14.1B in FY2025 versus $12.5B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.9B in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
CSX screens 75% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here’s How Intermodal Demand Is Positioning CSX Corp. (CSX) for Growth
- Higher Freight Volumes Boost CSX Shares Over 42% in a Year
- Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on CSX Corporation Stock?
Peer Group
Railroads · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.51 | €10.42 | -44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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