Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CN · Market cap 235B CNY
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +9.5% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 11% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from ¥4.22 (bear) to ¥7.07 (bull), base ¥5.65. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥4.33 – ¥6.37 · fair‑value band ¥4.22 – ¥7.07 · the ¥5.08 price screens below the ¥5.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816) currently trades at ¥5.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.65, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co generated revenue of 43.4B CNY at a net margin of 30.8%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at 32.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥4.22 (bear case) to ¥7.07 (bull case); at ¥5.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 11%, 601816 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.21) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers.
Full company description
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers. It also offers passenger transportation, consulting, property management, logistics, warehousing, and parking services. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co reported revenue of ¥43.1B in FY2025 versus ¥29.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥13.2B in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.51 | €10.42 | -44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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