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Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · CN · Market cap 235B CNY

BS Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 · SHG
Price¥5.08
Fair Value¥5.65
Upside+11.2%
Quality69/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 30.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.83% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/14)
Wide moat 66/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥4.22 – ¥7.07 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Share price +9.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 11% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from ¥4.22 (bear) to ¥7.07 (bull), base ¥5.65. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 69/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥6.37 ¥4.33 Fair Value ¥5.65 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥4.33 – ¥6.37 · fair‑value band ¥4.22 – ¥7.07 · the ¥5.08 price screens below the ¥5.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816) currently trades at ¥5.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥5.65, implying the stock looks roughly 11.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co generated revenue of 43.4B CNY at a net margin of 30.8%. Revenue grew 3.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at 32.2B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥4.22 (bear case) to ¥7.07 (bull case); at ¥5.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at 11%, 601816 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥4.65 ¥8.21 ¥14.28 80
Residual Income ¥3.45 ¥3.63 ¥3.83 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.05 ¥3.29 ¥4.80 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥4.58 ¥8.17 ¥14.18 38
Owner Earnings ¥3.97 ¥7.14 ¥12.45 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥2.05 ¥3.24 ¥4.71 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.05 ¥7.12 ¥10.77 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥3.51 ¥6.06 ¥8.80 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥2.81 ¥4.16 ¥5.93 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥4.19 ¥6.97 ¥10.82 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥3.83 ¥6.21 ¥9.24 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥1.83 ¥6.69 ¥9.02 54
Lynch FV ¥1.59 ¥2.27 ¥2.96 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥1.59 ¥2.27 ¥2.96 46
EPV ¥2.34 ¥2.87 ¥3.34 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥1.82 ¥3.98 ¥6.69 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥1.82 ¥3.26 ¥4.14 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥4.04 ¥5.38 ¥6.73 63
P/S Multiple ¥1.65 ¥2.20 ¥2.75 58
P/B Multiple ¥3.43 ¥4.58 ¥5.72 55
EV/EBIT ¥4.61 ¥6.37 ¥8.13 53
EV/EBITDA ¥4.28 ¥5.92 ¥7.57 54
EV/Revenue ¥0.8800 ¥1.54 ¥2.20 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥2.12 ¥2.84 ¥4.23 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥4.65 ¥8.21 ¥14.28 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥2.05 ¥3.29 ¥4.80 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥3.45 ¥3.63 ¥3.83 76
ROIC Compounder ¥2.34 ¥2.87 ¥3.34 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥2.91 ¥4.16 ¥5.40 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥6.21) versus Earnings-Based (¥2.27). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 43.4B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.3%
Net margin 30.8%
Return on equity 5.8%
Free cash flow 20.4B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 17.8
More key figures
Operating margin 43.4%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.2700
Dividend yield 2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +6.3%
Net debt 32.2B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 94
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 38
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers.

Full company description

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co., Ltd. engages in the construction and operation of high-speed trains for passengers. The company provides high-speed rail transportation services to passengers on the operated trains and collecting ticket prices, as well as overhead line use and other services to passengers. It also offers passenger transportation, consulting, property management, logistics, warehousing, and parking services. The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co reported revenue of ¥43.1B in FY2025 versus ¥29.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥13.2B in FY2025, compounding +28.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
43.1B CNY
Latest YoY
+2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+30.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.3%
Avg. growth/yr (9Y)
+5.7%
Revenue +10.1%/yr
FY21 ¥29.3B
FY22 ¥19.3B
FY23 ¥40.7B
FY24 ¥42.2B
FY25 ¥43.1B
Net income +28.6%/yr
FY21 ¥4.8B
FY22 −¥576M
FY23 ¥11.5B
FY24 ¥12.8B
FY25 ¥13.2B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601816

Peer Group

Railroads · 109 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +11% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 31% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.8% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.23× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.14× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 5.42× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.7× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 48 · sector 27
FUTURE 17 · sector 20
PAST 23 · sector 31
HEALTH 88 · sector 88
DIVIDEND 57 · sector 41

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $301.75 $144.60 -52%
CSX Corporation CSX $49.41 $12.85 -74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $92.91 $35.00 -62%
Canadian National Railway Company CNI $128.22 $92.63 -28%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $327.47 $117.90 -64%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $259.71 $144.80 -44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.65 ¥9.53 +69%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.85 ¥6.24 +29%
Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 167,700 KRW 125,182 KRW -25%
Getlink SE GET €18.51 €10.42 -44%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥5.65 versus a price of ¥5.08, about +11% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601816?
Our model-based fair value for Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co is ¥5.65 (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥5.08.
What is the quality score of 601816?
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co has a Quality Score of 69/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co (601816)?
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 43.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 601816?
The net profit margin of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co is about 30.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co pay a dividend?
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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