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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited BRL 101, price BRL 112, upside -9.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
CPRL34 · SAOvervalued / MonitorQuality growthQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value R$101.10 · Overvalued (−9.5%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +19.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 27.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 69/100
!The models disagree: range R$58.40 to R$197.72
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$81.70 – R$122.88 · fair‑value band R$58.40 – R$197.72 · the R$111.66 price screens above the R$101.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a transcontinental freight railway in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, potash, fertilizers, and sulphur; merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as forest products, energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals, consumer products, and automotive; and intermodal traffic comprising retail goods in overseas containers. The company also provides rail and intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 20,000 miles serving business centers. The company was formerly known as Canadian Pacific Railway Limited and changed its name to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited in April 2023. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited was founded in 1881 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34) currently trades at R$111.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$101.10, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.4%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$87.54 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$111.66 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$13.21, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$58.40 (bear) to R$197.72 (bull), the price of R$111.66 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported revenue of C$15.1B in FY2025 versus C$8.0B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was C$4.1B in FY2025, compounding +9.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$405B (≈ $77.5B) · P/E ratio 27.3 · P/S ratio 7.50 · EPS (TTM) R$4.09 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 27.5% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at −9%, CPRL34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$58.40
Fair Value R$101.10
Bull R$197.72
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$2.40 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
R$40.43
R$44.19
R$53.97
73
EPV
R$23.20
R$30.47
R$36.82
71
FCF DCF
R$19.30
R$55.10
R$120.05
70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$19.30
R$55.10
R$120.05
70
Owner Earnings
R$31.10
R$77.55
R$161.82
67
5Y Revenue Exit
R$5.48
R$23.28
R$47.35
63
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$41.34
R$99.52
R$175.00
68
5Y P/E Exit
R$35.22
R$86.50
R$147.11
64
10Y Revenue Exit
R$9.03
R$27.83
R$56.79
59
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$33.81
R$84.70
R$166.93
61
10Y P/E Exit
R$29.69
R$74.99
R$142.87
57
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$29.03
R$149.28
R$206.34
61
Lynch FV
R$40.73
R$58.19
R$75.65
58
PEG = 1.0
R$40.73
R$58.19
R$75.65
55
EPV
R$23.20
R$30.47
R$36.82
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$7.54
R$15.67
R$24.85
63
DDM Multi-Stage
R$7.54
R$13.21
R$16.44
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$67.24
R$89.66
R$112.07
63
P/S Multiple
R$23.32
R$31.09
R$38.86
58
P/B Multiple
R$54.43
R$72.58
R$90.72
55
EV/EBIT
R$53.47
R$78.09
R$102.71
65
EV/EBITDA
R$56.39
R$81.98
R$107.57
67
EV/Revenue
n/a
R$7.61
R$16.00
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$23.65
R$31.69
R$47.30
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$18.68
R$50.63
R$106.44
69
Rev-Margin DCF
R$5.48
R$23.00
R$46.41
63
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$40.43
R$44.19
R$53.97
73
ROIC Compounder
R$23.20
R$30.47
R$36.82
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$61.28
R$87.54
R$113.80
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Profitability
42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
57
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
48
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
55
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 37%
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $272.13 | $153.47 | −44% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $46.51 | $12.91 | −72% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $121.14 | $98.68 | −19% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $309.00 | $133.05 | −57% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $288.00 | $290.92 | +1% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.69 | ¥5.65 | +20% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.97 | ¥9.21 | +54% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.66 | ¥5.48 | +18% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.83 | €10.42 | −45% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 115,900 KRW | 127,490 KRW | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$101.10 versus a price of R$111.66, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CPRL34?
Our model-based fair value for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is R$101.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$111.66.
What is the quality score of CPRL34?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$101.10 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$58.40, optimistic scenario R$197.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$101.10, about −9% upside versus a price of R$111.66 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$58.40, optimistic scenario R$197.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$15.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited pay a dividend?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited it is R$101.10 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$111.66. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, CPRL34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$111.66, fair value R$101.10, a gap of about −9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CPRL34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$111.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$101.10). For Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited the two are R$10.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited worth?
The market values Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited at about R$405B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$111.66; our models calculate a fair value of R$101.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CPRL34?
Our models span a range for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited: cautious scenario R$58.40, base R$101.10, optimistic R$197.72 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$111.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CPRL34 from its 52-week high?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited trades at R$111.66, about 9% below its 52-week high of R$122.88 and 21% above the low of R$92.06 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$101.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$111.66, calculated fair value R$101.10 (−9%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CPRL34 calculated?
We run Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$101.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$111.66. Our model-based fair value is R$101.10, about −9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide (R$58.40 to R$197.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The market capitalisation of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is R$405B (≈ $77.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 27.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 7.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Earnings per share at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited are R$4.09 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The dividend yield of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 0.8% (payout 22.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The net margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 27.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
The operating margin of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is 37.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Revenue at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34)?
Earnings per share at Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited are growing −3.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34) generate?
The free cash flow of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is C$2.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CPRL34) carry?
The net debt of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited is C$23.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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