Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $76.5B
Canadian National Railway Company
CNI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +2.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 27% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The model range is unusually wide ($49.49 to $177.03). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $89.25 – $130.58 · fair‑value band $49.49 – $177.03 · the $126.40 price screens above the $92.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) currently trades at $126.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.63, implying the stock looks roughly 26.7% overvalued today. We read business quality at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Canadian National Railway Company generated revenue of $17.3B at a net margin of 27.2%. Revenue declined 0.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.9%. Net debt stands at $21.5B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $49.49 (bear case) to $177.03 (bull case); at $126.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -27%, CNI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($130.22) versus Asset-Based ($23.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States.
Full company description
Canadian National Railway Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the rail, intermodal, trucking, and related transportation businesses in Canada and the United States. The company provides rail services, which include equipment, customs brokerage, transloading and warehousing, business development, dimensional loads, and private railcar storage, less-than-truckload, and mexico services; intermodal services, such as temperature controlled multimodal, mobile transport trays, port partnerships, transloading and distribution, logistics parks, trucking, and supply chain services. It also offers connecting to rail, short lines, maps and network services. The company serves automotive, coal, fertilizers, temperature controlled cargo, forest products, dimensional, grain, metal and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, and third party logistics applications. Canadian National Railway Company was incorporated in 1919 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Canadian National Railway Company reported revenue of $17.3B in FY2025 versus $14.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $4.7B in FY2025, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2021.
CNI screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
| Getlink SE GET | €18.51 | €10.42 | -44% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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