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Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Carnarvon Energy Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · US · ISIN AU000000CVN8

CE Carnarvon Energy Limited logo Some data Sep 13, 2026

Carnarvon Energy Limited

CVONF · US

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value $0.0600 · Fairly valued (+0%)
!Quality 54/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −25.5 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$0.2500 $0.0500 Fair Value $0.0600 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0500 – $0.2500 · fair‑value band $0.0600 – $0.0660 · the $0.0600 price screens below the $0.0600 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business.

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Carnarvon Energy Limited engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas properties in Australia. It owns various interests in the Dorado, Pavo, Roc, Phoenix, and Phoenix South project located in the Bedout Sub-basin permits of Western Australia. The company engages in carbon initiatives and new energy business. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) currently trades at $0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0600, implying the stock looks roughly 0.0% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.1300 per share, and 11 of the 13 models we run sit above the $0.0600 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.0300, and 2 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $0.0600 (bear) to $0.0660 (bull), the price of $0.0600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Carnarvon Energy Limited reported revenue of A$0 in FY2019 versus A$0 in FY2015. Reported net income was A$3.7M in FY2025, compounding −32.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $161M · Return on equity −1.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.5% · Operating margin −76.7% · Revenue (TTM) −$2.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) −73.7% · Free cash flow $3.1K · Net cash $186M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 0%, CVONF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0600 Fair Value $0.0600 Bull $0.0660
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.1000 80
Growth DCF $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.1000 78
Owner Earnings $0.1300 $0.1500 $0.1900 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.1000 80
Owner Earnings $0.1300 $0.1500 $0.1900 76
5Y P/E Exit $0.1200 $0.1400 $0.1700 70
10Y P/E Exit $0.1100 $0.1300 $0.1600 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $0.0100 $0.1000 $0.1400 61
Lynch FV $0.0500 $0.0700 $0.0900 59
PEG = 1.0 $0.0500 $0.0700 $0.0900 55
Multiples
P/E Multiple $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0400 62
P/B Multiple $0.0300 $0.0300 $0.0400 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0800 $0.1000 $0.1500 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $0.1000 $0.1000 $0.1000 78
Economic Profit
Residual Income $0.0900 $0.0800 $0.0500 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $0.0600 $0.0800 $0.1100 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−24.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.5%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−28.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−29% vs −21%, slowing
Profit margin 2008 to 2013 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.78% → 14%

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $61.46 $30.06 −51%
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Woodside Energy Group WDS A$32.86 A$21.75 −34%
EQT Corporation EQT $54.07 $59.48 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $369.10 $318.08 −14%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Carnarvon Energy Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CVONF

Frequently asked questions

Is Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0600 versus a price of $0.0600, about +0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CVONF?
Our model-based fair value for Carnarvon Energy Limited is $0.0600 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0600.
What is the quality score of CVONF?
Carnarvon Energy Limited has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0600 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0600, optimistic scenario $0.0660. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Carnarvon Energy Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0600, about +0% upside versus a price of $0.0600 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0600, optimistic scenario $0.0660. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Carnarvon Energy Limited it is $0.0600 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0600. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Carnarvon Energy Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, CVONF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0600, fair value $0.0600, a gap of about +0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CVONF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0600). For Carnarvon Energy Limited the two are $0.0000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Carnarvon Energy Limited worth?
The market values Carnarvon Energy Limited at about $161M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CVONF?
Our models span a range for Carnarvon Energy Limited: cautious scenario $0.0600, base $0.0600, optimistic $0.0660 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.0600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is CVONF from its 52-week high?
Carnarvon Energy Limited trades at $0.0600, about 33% below its 52-week high of $0.0900 and 20% above the low of $0.0500 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Carnarvon Energy Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Carnarvon Energy Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.0600, calculated fair value $0.0600 (+0%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CVONF calculated?
We run Carnarvon Energy Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Carnarvon Energy Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Carnarvon Energy Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The models converge in a tight band ($0.0600 to $0.0660), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Carnarvon Energy Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
The market capitalisation of Carnarvon Energy Limited is $161M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the return on equity of Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Carnarvon Energy Limited is −1.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Carnarvon Energy Limited is −2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
The operating margin of Carnarvon Energy Limited is −76.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) generate?
Carnarvon Energy Limited generates revenue of −$2.1M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF)?
Revenue at Carnarvon Energy Limited is growing −73.7% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) generate?
The free cash flow of Carnarvon Energy Limited is $3.1K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Carnarvon Energy Limited (CVONF) hold?
Carnarvon Energy Limited holds more cash than debt, $186M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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