CYGNUS Metals Ltd (CY5) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · AU · Market cap A$159M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Share price +20.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0850 to A$0.1785) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0400 – A$0.6000 · fair‑value band A$0.0850 – A$0.1785 · the A$0.1500 price screens above the A$0.1445 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CYGNUS Metals Ltd (CY5) currently trades at A$0.1500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.1445, implying the stock looks roughly 3.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$592K. Revenue declined 76.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$13.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0850 (bear case) to A$0.1785 (bull case); at A$0.1500, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at -4%, CY5 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (A$0.1600) versus Asset-Based (A$0.0500). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Cygnus Metals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Canada and Australia. The company explores for lithium, gold, nickel, and copper deposits, as well as rare earth elements and platinum group elements. Its flagship projects include the Corner Bay and Devlin projects located on south of Chibougamau, Québec.
Full company description
Cygnus Metals Limited engages in the exploration of mineral properties in Canada and Australia. The company explores for lithium, gold, nickel, and copper deposits, as well as rare earth elements and platinum group elements. Its flagship projects include the Corner Bay and Devlin projects located on south of Chibougamau, Québec. The company was formerly known as Cygnus Gold Limited and changed its name to Cygnus Metals Limited in February 2023. Cygnus Metals Limited was incorporated in 2015 and is based in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CYGNUS Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$592K in FY2025 versus A$335K in FY2020, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.5M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 480 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 222.38 MXN | 172.99 MXN | -22% |
| Vale S.A VALEN | 250.00 MXN | 139.41 MXN | -44% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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