Deutz AG (DEZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Deutz AG stock €7.60, price €9.86, that is 22.9% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.74 – €13.33 · fair‑value band €5.28 – €10.24 · the €9.86 price screens above the €7.60 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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DEUTZ engages in the development, production, distribution, maintenance, and servicing of diesel and gas engines in Germany, Rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the United States. It operates through five segments: Services, Engines, NewTech, Energy, and Defense & Other.
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The company offers engine finder, diesel engines, gas and gasoline engines, and hydrogen engines, as well as electric technology, such as electric systems, high voltage battery systems, and powertree products.
It also provides spare parts for large and medium sized engines, such as turbo charger, starter, alternator, piston, piston liner, valves, crankshaft, camshaft, piston rods, water pump, oil pump, oil cooler, injection system, cylinder head, engine control unit, eat technology; operating liquids, oil, coolant, power blue, additives, fuel requirements; maintenance parts, air, oil, fuel filters, cylindrical head gasket, engine gasket set, and v- belt; xchange engines and parts; lifecycle solutions, care programs, diesel particulate filter cleaning services; daimler truck off-highway engines services; and hybrid, all-electric, and hydrogen drives, including mobile rapid charging stations and related services.
In addition, the company offers compact engine systems and engine accessories.
Its products are used in various applications, such as construction and agricultural machinery, mining, defense, material handling, energy supply, stationary systems, commercial vehicles, rail vehicles, ground support, and other applications.
DEUTZ was founded in 1864 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany.
Stock analysis
Deutz AG (DEZ) currently trades at €9.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.60, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €5.89 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €9.86 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.35, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €5.28 (bear) to €10.24 (bull), the price of €9.86 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Deutz AG reported revenue of €2.0B in FY2025 versus €1.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was €53.6M in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.5B Small · P/E ratio 20.1 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) €0.4900 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 3.7% · Return on equity 8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −23%, DEZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€5.28Fair Value €7.60Bull€10.24
Price €9.86 · Downside -22.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2658 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€2.69€3.48€4.4082
Growth DCF€2.70€3.41€4.1880
Owner Earnings€4.32€5.60€7.0778
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€2.69€3.48€4.4082
Owner Earnings€4.32€5.60€7.0778
5Y Revenue Exit€2.66€3.88€5.3873
5Y EBITDA Exit€5.23€8.50€12.2275
5Y P/E Exit€3.59€5.57€7.5571
10Y Revenue Exit€2.59€3.55€4.7467
10Y EBITDA Exit€3.97€6.13€8.8668
10Y P/E Exit€3.12€4.49€6.0564
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€2.17€5.55€7.2265
PEG = 1.0€1.04€1.48€1.9357
EPV€1.87€2.07€2.2474
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€0.9200€1.43€1.8868
DDM Multi-Stage€0.9200€1.26€1.5467
Multiples
P/E Multiple€5.03€6.70€8.3863
P/S Multiple€4.07€5.43€6.7858
P/B Multiple€4.76€6.35€7.9455
EV/EBIT€2.32€3.63€4.9465
EV/EBITDA€6.95€9.80€12.6567
EV/Revenue€1.20€2.40€3.6051
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€1.49€2.00€2.9954
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€2.70€3.41€4.1880
Rev-Margin DCF€2.66€3.92€5.3173
Economic Profit
Residual Income€3.98€3.89€3.9976
ROIC Compounder€1.87€2.07€2.2472
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€3.90€5.57€7.2467
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0.0% vs 10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+32.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+38.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +29.7% a year for the price and +35.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business holds an average position with limited durable advantages, where the defense expansion via FFG offers a potential new pillar but low returns on capital continue to constrain the core engine operations.
Main risk: Transition costs and integration risks from the FFG acquisition could dominate, delaying scale in the new defense pillar and stabilization of the legacy engine business.
Deutz is pushing into defense through the FFG acquisition while its core engine business faces softer demand and needs regulatory software updates. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the new defense pillar add meaningful scale before the legacy operations stabilize, or will the transition costs and integration risks dominate the outlook?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−22.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)2.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)20.1× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.54× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.70× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)35.7× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Deutz AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DEZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Deutz AG (DEZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.60 versus a price of €9.86, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DEZ?
Our model-based fair value for Deutz AG is €7.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €9.86.
What is the quality score of DEZ?
Deutz AG has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.28, optimistic scenario €10.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Deutz AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.60, about 23% lower versus a price of €9.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €5.28, optimistic scenario €10.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Deutz AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Deutz AG pay a dividend?
Deutz AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.83% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Deutz AG (DEZ) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Deutz AG pays a dividend of €0.18 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.8%. The last ex-dividend date was May 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 36.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.40 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Deutz AG (DEZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Deutz AG would have to grow free cash flow by +32.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DEZ use?
Our models discount Deutz AG at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.89, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Deutz AG that is +32.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Deutz AG (DEZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Deutz AG grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +32.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Deutz AG (DEZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Deutz AG (+32.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.80 %: that much free cash flow Deutz AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Deutz AG it is €7.60 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of €9.86. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Deutz AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, DEZ trades above its calculated fair value: price €9.86, fair value €7.60, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DEZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€9.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.60). For Deutz AG the two are €2.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Deutz AG worth?
The market values Deutz AG at about €1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is €9.86; our models calculate a fair value of €7.60 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DEZ?
Our models span a range for Deutz AG: cautious scenario €5.28, base €7.60, optimistic €10.24 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price €9.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DEZ?
Deutz AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.1 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €7.60 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 10.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of DEZ?
The PEG ratio of Deutz AG is 1.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Deutz AG (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 8.7%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DEZ from its 52-week high?
Deutz AG trades at €9.86, about 26% below its 52-week high of €13.33 and 33% above the low of €7.43 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.60 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Deutz AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Deutz AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price €9.86, calculated fair value €7.60 (−23%), Quality Score 39/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DEZ calculated?
We run Deutz AG through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €7.60 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Deutz AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €9.86. Our model-based fair value is €7.60, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Deutz AG right now?
Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€5.28 to €10.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Deutz AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The market capitalisation of Deutz AG is €1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Deutz AG is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Earnings per share at Deutz AG are €0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The dividend yield of Deutz AG is 1.8% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The net margin of Deutz AG is 3.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Deutz AG is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Deutz AG is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Deutz AG (DEZ)?
The operating margin of Deutz AG is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Revenue at Deutz AG is growing +13.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Deutz AG (DEZ)?
Earnings per share at Deutz AG are growing −48.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Deutz AG (DEZ) carry?
The net debt of Deutz AG is €269M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026