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DFI Retail Group (DFIB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 20, 2026: fair value of DFI Retail Group $2.95, price $9.17, upside -67.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
DFI Retail Group
DFIB · LSEStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $2.95 · Strongly overvalued (−67.8%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.07 – $9.17 · fair‑value band $2.21 – $4.45 · the $9.17 price screens above the $2.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited operates as a retailer in Asia. The company operates through five segments: Food, Convenience, Health and Beauty, Home Furnishings, Restaurants, and Other Retailing.
Show more
DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited operates as a retailer in Asia. The company operates through five segments: Food, Convenience, Health and Beauty, Home Furnishings, Restaurants, and Other Retailing. The company primarily operates grocery stores under the Wellcome, Yonghui, CS Fresh, Market Place, Giant, Hero, Cold Storage, Mercato, San Miu, Jasons, and Lucky brands; and convenience stores under the 7-Eleven brand. It also operates health and beauty stores under the Mannings, Guardian, and GNC brands; and home furnishings stores under the IKEA brand, as well as restaurants under the Maxim's brand. The company was formerly known as Dairy Farm International Holdings Limited and changed its name to DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited in May 2022. The company was incorporated in 1886 and is based in Quarry Bay, Hong Kong. DFI Retail Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Jardine Strategic Limited.
Stock analysis
DFI Retail Group (DFIB) currently trades at $9.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.95, 67.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $6.93 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.17 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.6700, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.21 (bear) to $4.45 (bull), the price of $9.17 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
DFI Retail Group reported revenue of $8.9B in FY2025 versus $9.0B in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $235M in FY2025, compounding +22.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.4B · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 2.6% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% · Operating margin 3.8% · Revenue (TTM) $9.0B · Revenue growth (YoY) −3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −68%, DFIB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.21
Fair Value $2.95
Bull $4.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$7.85
$10.40
$15.34
81
Growth DCF
$8.14
$10.62
$15.02
79
Owner Earnings
$7.68
$10.17
$15.00
77
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$7.85
$10.40
$15.34
81
Owner Earnings
$7.68
$10.17
$15.00
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.46
$5.56
$7.20
74
5Y EBITDA Exit
$7.63
$10.94
$15.47
75
5Y P/E Exit
$4.59
$5.77
$7.26
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.70
$6.79
$7.93
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$7.66
$10.22
$13.05
69
10Y P/E Exit
$5.84
$6.93
$7.96
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.18
$1.83
$2.19
67
EPV
$2.06
$2.37
$2.63
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$4.80
$5.61
$6.52
69
DDM Multi-Stage
$4.80
$6.22
$7.97
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.73
$3.64
$4.55
63
P/S Multiple
$2.21
$2.95
$3.69
58
P/B Multiple
$0.8500
$1.13
$1.41
55
EV/EBIT
$3.39
$4.48
$5.57
66
EV/EBITDA
$8.67
$11.52
$14.37
67
EV/Revenue
$2.45
$3.45
$4.45
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1000
$0.1400
$0.2100
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$8.14
$10.62
$15.02
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.46
$5.74
$7.45
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.5900
$0.6700
$1.05
75
ROIC Compounder
$2.06
$2.38
$2.66
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.93
$2.76
$3.58
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
69/100
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability
73
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
74
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
27
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
99
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
’14
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’17
’18
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’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.8% vs −6.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price.
DFIB screens overvalued: fair value 68% below the price. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Compare DFI Retail Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 71 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: UK Stocks
- Valuation of the UK market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$62.71 | C$44.76 | −29% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $60.79 | $30.42 | −50% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$38.35 | A$19.56 | −49% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €31.50 | €53.98 | +71% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$101.21 | C$155.86 | +54% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.03 | A$17.03 | −26% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$89.95 | C$96.77 | +8% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.33 | €20.64 | +35% |
| CP ALL Public Company CPALL | 43.00 THB | 58.21 THB | +35% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOB | €22.94 | €12.99 | −43% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is DFI Retail Group (DFIB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.95 versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of $9.17, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DFIB?
Our model-based fair value for DFI Retail Group is $2.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 20, 2026): $9.17.
What is the quality score of DFIB?
DFI Retail Group has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.21, optimistic scenario $4.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DFI Retail Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.95, about −68% upside versus the last price from Aug 20, 2026 of $9.17 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.21, optimistic scenario $4.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
DFI Retail Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DFI Retail Group would have to grow free cash flow by -0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DFIB use?
Our models discount DFI Retail Group at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (unknown), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DFI Retail Group that is -0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DFI Retail Group (DFIB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DFI Retail Group grew -2.9 % a year. The price currently implies -0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DFI Retail Group (DFIB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DFI Retail Group (-0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.94 %: that much free cash flow DFI Retail Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DFI Retail Group it is $2.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.17. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DFI Retail Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, DFIB trades above its calculated fair value: price $9.17, fair value $2.95, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DFIB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.17); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.95). For DFI Retail Group the two are $6.22 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DFI Retail Group worth?
The market values DFI Retail Group at about $12.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.17; our models calculate a fair value of $2.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DFIB?
Our models span a range for DFI Retail Group: cautious scenario $2.21, base $2.95, optimistic $4.45 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.17). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Balance-sheet figures for DFI Retail Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DFIB from its 52-week high?
DFI Retail Group trades at $9.17, at its 52-week high of $9.17 and 1% above the low of $9.07 (as of Aug 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DFI Retail Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DFI Retail Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.17, calculated fair value $2.95 (−68%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DFIB calculated?
We run DFI Retail Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. DFI Retail Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 20, 2026 and stands at $9.17. Our model-based fair value is $2.95, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DFI Retail Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.21 to $4.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of DFI Retail Group (DFIB) come from?
Earnings per share at DFI Retail Group grew −13.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.3 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate −1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of DFI Retail Group
How large is the market capitalisation of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The market capitalisation of DFI Retail Group is $12.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Earnings per share at DFI Retail Group are $0.0900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The net margin of DFI Retail Group is 2.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DFI Retail Group is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DFI Retail Group is 3.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
The operating margin of DFI Retail Group is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Revenue at DFI Retail Group is growing −3.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DFI Retail Group (DFIB)?
Earnings per share at DFI Retail Group are growing +10.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does DFI Retail Group (DFIB) carry?
The net debt of DFI Retail Group is $2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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