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DNOW Inc (DNOW) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $2.4B

DI DNOW Inc logo DNOW Inc DNOW · US
Price$16.52
Fair Value$5.76
Upside-65.1%
Quality30/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -4.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (3/12)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: Medium Range $3.32 – $5.76 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Share price +28.1% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 65% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$17.59 $7.01 Fair Value $5.76 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.01 – $17.59 · fair‑value band $3.32 – $5.76 · the $16.52 price screens above the $5.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

DNOW Inc (DNOW) currently trades at $16.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.76, implying the stock looks roughly 65.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, DNOW Inc generated revenue of $3.4B at a net margin of -4.5%. Revenue grew 97.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.4%. Net debt stands at $505M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $3.32 (bear case) to $5.76 (bull case); at $16.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -65%, DNOW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF $6.36 $9.37 $13.33 80
Rev-Margin DCF $5.40 $8.87 $12.66 74
EV/EBITDA $0.5200 $1.14 $1.76 54
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $6.18 $9.48 $14.03 38
5Y Revenue Exit $5.40 $8.79 $12.97 39
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.49 $3.57 $4.71 41
10Y Revenue Exit $5.44 $8.50 $12.30 36
10Y EBITDA Exit $3.85 $5.03 $6.36 37
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.5200 $1.14 $1.76 54
EV/Revenue $5.33 $8.19 $11.05 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.13 $8.21 $12.26 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $6.36 $9.37 $13.33 80
Rev-Margin DCF $5.40 $8.87 $12.66 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($8.87) versus Multiples ($1.14). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $3.4B
Revenue growth (YoY) +97.5%
Net margin -4.5%
Return on equity -9.4%
Free cash flow $134M FY2025
Operating margin -0.3%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-1.19
EPS growth (YoY) +90.5%
Net debt $505M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 32
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

DNOW Inc. distributes pipe, valves, fittings, and pumps in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers flanges, gaskets, fasteners, electrical, instrumentation, artificial lift, and pumping systems, process and production equipment, production measurement technology, maintenance, repair and operating consumables (MRO), and general and …

Full company description

DNOW Inc. distributes pipe, valves, fittings, and pumps in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company offers flanges, gaskets, fasteners, electrical, instrumentation, artificial lift, and pumping systems, process and production equipment, production measurement technology, maintenance, repair and operating consumables (MRO), and general and specialty products; personal protective equipment; and mill, tools, safety supplies, as well as vapor recovery systems under EcoVapo brand. It also offers original equipment manufacturer equipment, including pumps, generator sets, air compressors, dryers, blowers, mixers, and valves; modular oil and gas wellsite facility solutions; and application systems, work processes, parts integration, optimization solutions, and after-sales support services. In addition, the company provides supply chain and materials management; inventory planning; integrated supply; integrated supply; product quality programs; manufacturer assessments; multiple daily deliveries; volume purchasing; truck stocking; technical support; training; just-in-time delivery; and on-site commissioning; after-market field repair and rental mobile pumping units; inventory and zone store management; order consolidation; product tagging and system interfaces tailored; supplier specifications; engineering of control packages; valve inspection and repair; product expediting, tracking and tracing; documentation services; and pressure testing services. It serves customers in the upstream, midstream, and Gas Utilities sectors, as well as downstream and industrial including crude oil refining, petrochemical and chemical processing, general industrials, pharmaceutical, mining, water/wastewater treatment, data centers, liquefied natural gas, and terminals and renewable natural gas facilities. The company was formerly known as NOW Inc. and changed its name to DNOW Inc. in January 2024. DNOW Inc. was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

DNOW Inc reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$89.0M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 57/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.8B
Latest YoY
+18.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+9.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+11.7%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y)
−1.5%
Revenue +14.7%/yr
FY21 $1.6B
FY22 $2.1B
FY23 $2.3B
FY24 $2.4B
FY25 $2.8B
Net income
FY21 $5.0M
FY22 $128M
FY23 $247M
FY24 $81.0M
FY25 −$89.0M

DNOW screens 65% overvalued. Compare with W.W. Grainger, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "DNOW Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DNOW

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Industrial Distribution · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -0% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 98% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.18× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.06× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.70× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 17.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 17.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 19
FUTURE 100 · sector 19
PAST 0 · sector 35
HEALTH 91 · sector 90
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW $1,376 $625.61 -55%
Fastenal Company FAST $45.49 $20.64 -55%
Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG $232.02 $151.92 -35%
WESCO International, Inc WCC $326.71 $213.01 -35%
Watsco, Inc WSO $385.16 $268.10 -30%
Toromont Industries Ltd TIH C$232.22 C$127.90 -45%
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT $329.35 $191.65 -42%
Finning International Inc FTT C$102.50 C$76.38 -25%
Addtech AB ADDTB kr 329.20 kr 156.35 -53%
Core & Main, Inc CNM $44.66 $49.47 +11%

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Frequently asked questions

Is DNOW Inc (DNOW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.76 versus a price of $16.52, about −65% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DNOW?
Our model-based fair value for DNOW Inc is $5.76 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $16.52.
What is the quality score of DNOW?
DNOW Inc has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of DNOW Inc (DNOW)?
DNOW Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.4B (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DNOW?
The net profit margin of DNOW Inc is about -4.5%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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