Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Douglas Elliman Inc $2.85, price $1.53, upside +86.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
57‑month range $1.04 – $10.92 · fair‑value band $2.13 – $3.56 · the $1.53 price screens below the $2.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Douglas Elliman Inc. engages in the real estate services and property technology investment business in the United States. The company provides residential real estate brokerage services; and ancillary services, such as property management, insurance, title, escrow services, nuanced landscape of trust, conservatorship, and probate real estate transactions.
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Douglas Elliman Inc. engages in the real estate services and property technology investment business in the United States. The company provides residential real estate brokerage services; and ancillary services, such as property management, insurance, title, escrow services, nuanced landscape of trust, conservatorship, and probate real estate transactions. The company also offers its services internationally. Douglas Elliman Inc. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Stock analysis
Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) currently trades at $1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.85, implying the stock looks roughly 46.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $2.85 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $1.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.36, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.13 (bear) to $3.56 (bull), the price of $1.53 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Douglas Elliman Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $1.4B in FY2021, a compound −6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $15.2M in FY2025, compounding −37.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $156M · P/E ratio 30.6 · P/S ratio 0.45 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.9% · Operating margin −6.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at 86%, DOUG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.13Fair Value $2.85Bull $3.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0367 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−23.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−6% → −6%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 547 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+85% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.85 versus a price of $1.53, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DOUG?
Our model-based fair value for Douglas Elliman Inc is $2.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.53.
What is the quality score of DOUG?
Douglas Elliman Inc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.85 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.13, optimistic scenario $3.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Douglas Elliman Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.85, about +86% upside versus a price of $1.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.13, optimistic scenario $3.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Douglas Elliman Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $994M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Douglas Elliman Inc it is $2.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.53. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Douglas Elliman Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DOUG trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.53, fair value $2.85, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DOUG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.85). For Douglas Elliman Inc the two are $1.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Douglas Elliman Inc worth?
The market values Douglas Elliman Inc at about $156M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.53; our models calculate a fair value of $2.85 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DOUG?
Our models span a range for Douglas Elliman Inc: cautious scenario $2.13, base $2.85, optimistic $3.56 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DOUG?
Douglas Elliman Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.6 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.85 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Douglas Elliman Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DOUG from its 52-week high?
Douglas Elliman Inc trades at $1.53, about 50% below its 52-week high of $3.09 and at the low of $1.53 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.85 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Douglas Elliman Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Vingroup Joint Stock Company, CBRE Group, Vonovia SE, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Douglas Elliman Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.53, calculated fair value $2.85 (+86%), Quality Score 47/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DOUG calculated?
We run Douglas Elliman Inc through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.85, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Douglas Elliman Inc currently trades 86 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $1.53. Our model-based fair value is $2.85, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Douglas Elliman Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.13). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Douglas Elliman Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The market capitalisation of Douglas Elliman Inc is $156M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Douglas Elliman Inc is 0.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Earnings per share at Douglas Elliman Inc are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The net margin of Douglas Elliman Inc is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Douglas Elliman Inc is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Douglas Elliman Inc is −4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
The operating margin of Douglas Elliman Inc is −6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Revenue at Douglas Elliman Inc is growing −15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG)?
Earnings per share at Douglas Elliman Inc are growing −75.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) generate?
The free cash flow of Douglas Elliman Inc is −$17.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Douglas Elliman Inc (DOUG) hold?
Douglas Elliman Inc holds more cash than debt, $12.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026