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DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of DRDGOLD Limited $2.94, price $2.68, upside +10.0%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
DRDGOLD Limited
DRDGF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $2.94 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
✓Quality 67/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +13.5 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 35.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 90/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0012 – $3.71 · fair‑value band $1.96 – $4.36 · the $2.68 price screens below the $2.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center.
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DRDGOLD Limited, a gold mining company, engages in the extraction of gold from the retreatment of surface mine tailings in South Africa. It sells gold and silver bullion. It is involved in provision care and maintenance services; produces renewable power; employee home loans; and operation of training center. The company was formerly known as Durban Roodepoort Deep Limited and changed its name to DRDGOLD Limited in 2004. The company was incorporated in 1895 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. DRDGOLD Limited is a subsidiary of Sibanye Gold Limited.
Stock analysis
DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) currently trades at $2.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.94, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $2.47 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $2.68 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4100, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.96 (bear) to $4.36 (bull), the price of $2.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
DRDGOLD Limited reported revenue of 7.9B ZAR in FY2025 versus 5.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +10.6%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +11.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 16.7 · P/S ratio 4.76 · EPS (TTM) $0.1600 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 28.5% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, DRDGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.96
Fair Value $2.94
Bull $4.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.15
$1.90
$3.11
78
Growth DCF
$1.15
$1.84
$2.93
77
Owner Earnings
$0.4900
$0.7600
$1.22
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.15
$1.90
$3.11
78
Owner Earnings
$0.4900
$0.7600
$1.22
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.8200
$1.26
$1.83
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.8800
$1.38
$1.98
75
5Y P/E Exit
$1.64
$2.91
$4.34
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.9100
$1.35
$1.98
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9700
$1.44
$2.11
68
10Y P/E Exit
$1.46
$2.52
$4.00
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.06
$4.51
$6.17
64
Lynch FV
$1.15
$1.65
$2.14
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.15
$1.65
$2.14
57
EPV
$0.3800
$0.4200
$0.4600
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.2600
$0.5200
$0.7900
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.2600
$0.4500
$0.5500
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.98
$2.64
$3.30
63
P/S Multiple
$0.6100
$0.8200
$1.02
58
P/B Multiple
$1.38
$1.85
$2.31
55
EV/EBIT
$0.7600
$0.9800
$1.20
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.8100
$1.04
$1.28
67
EV/Revenue
$0.6600
$0.9100
$1.15
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3100
$0.4100
$0.6200
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.15
$1.84
$2.93
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.8200
$1.26
$1.81
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.9100
$1.24
$2.33
72
ROIC Compounder
$0.3800
$0.4200
$0.4600
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.73
$2.47
$3.21
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
67/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
87
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
4
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+26.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.1% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.26.2% vs 32.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 12%
2025 sits 75% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −36.2% a year for the price.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.34 | $126.87 | +10% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.01 | ¥44.45 | +48% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $185.83 | $219.71 | +18% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $135.39 | $87.78 | −35% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $245.81 | $270.39 | +10% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $99.03 | $88.60 | −11% |
| Zijin Gold International Company 2259 | HK$143.10 | HK$238.73 | +67% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $24.06 | $51.30 | +113% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $238.93 | $262.82 | +10% |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥29.07 | ¥23.61 | −19% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.94 versus a price of $2.68, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of DRDGF?
Our model-based fair value for DRDGOLD Limited is $2.94 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.68.
What is the quality score of DRDGF?
DRDGOLD Limited has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.94 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $4.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the DRDGOLD Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.94, about +10% upside versus a price of $2.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.96, optimistic scenario $4.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
DRDGOLD Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does DRDGOLD Limited pay a dividend?
DRDGOLD Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.36% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, DRDGOLD Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DRDGF use?
Our models discount DRDGOLD Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For DRDGOLD Limited that is -34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at DRDGOLD Limited grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies -34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into DRDGOLD Limited (-34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.57 %: that much free cash flow DRDGOLD Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For DRDGOLD Limited it is $2.94 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $2.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is DRDGOLD Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, DRDGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $2.68, fair value $2.94, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DRDGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.94). For DRDGOLD Limited the two are $0.2675 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is DRDGOLD Limited worth?
The market values DRDGOLD Limited at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $2.68; our models calculate a fair value of $2.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DRDGF?
Our models span a range for DRDGOLD Limited: cautious scenario $1.96, base $2.94, optimistic $4.36 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $2.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is DRDGF from its 52-week high?
DRDGOLD Limited trades at $2.68, about 28% below its 52-week high of $3.71 and 30% above the low of $2.06 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to DRDGOLD Limited?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is DRDGOLD Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $2.68, calculated fair value $2.94 (+10%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DRDGF calculated?
We run DRDGOLD Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. DRDGOLD Limited currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.68. Our model-based fair value is $2.94, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with DRDGOLD Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range ($1.96 to $4.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) come from?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited grew +33.6 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.6 %, EBIT margin +14.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of DRDGOLD Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The market capitalisation of DRDGOLD Limited is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of DRDGOLD Limited is 16.7. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of DRDGOLD Limited is 4.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited are $0.1600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The dividend yield of DRDGOLD Limited is 2.4% (payout 39.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The net margin of DRDGOLD Limited is 28.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of DRDGOLD Limited is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of DRDGOLD Limited is 17.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
The operating margin of DRDGOLD Limited is 46.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
Revenue at DRDGOLD Limited is growing +32.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF)?
Earnings per share at DRDGOLD Limited are growing +97.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does DRDGOLD Limited (DRDGF) hold?
DRDGOLD Limited holds more cash than debt, 1.3B ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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