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Data-driven stock valuation

Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$252B (≈ $32.2B)

At a glance

ZG Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd 2259 · HK
PriceHK$160.00
Fair ValueHK$96.81
Upside−39.5%
Quality79/100

A strong business, but trading 65% above our fair value of HK$96.81.

As of Aug 26, 2026, the fair value of Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd is HK$96.81 per share against a price of HK$160.00, so the fair value sits 39% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +44.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 34.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/14)
✓Wide moat 100/100
!Weak on dividend: 18 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$70.09 to HK$166.69

Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 14 days ago

Share price +16.7% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$70.09 to HK$166.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (11 months)

HK$250.22 HK$88.50 Fair Value HK$96.81 Sep 2025 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range HK$88.50 – HK$250.22 · fair‑value band HK$70.09 – HK$166.69 · the HK$160.00 price screens above the HK$96.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Aug 26, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259) currently trades at HK$160.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$96.81, implying the stock looks roughly 65.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$181.31 per share, and 5 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$160.00 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$14.21, and 11 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Revenue grew 137.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 31.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$20.7B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.7 (as of Jul 2, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026

Scenario range: HK$70.09 (bear) to HK$166.69 (bull), the price of HK$160.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −39%, 2259 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.1582 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF HK$92.68 HK$143.75 HK$310.73 70
Growth DCF HK$87.88 HK$173.10 HK$316.20 70
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$115.85 HK$206.44 HK$384.43 67
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$92.68 HK$143.75 HK$310.73 70
5Y Revenue Exit HK$82.70 HK$139.39 HK$258.29 65
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$115.85 HK$206.44 HK$384.43 67
10Y Revenue Exit HK$84.17 HK$181.31 HK$245.41 61
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$111.88 HK$254.38 HK$508.13 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$7.95 HK$17.35 HK$29.19 61
DDM Multi-Stage HK$7.95 HK$14.21 HK$18.08 62
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$53.43 HK$71.24 HK$89.04 58
P/B Multiple HK$32.82 HK$43.76 HK$54.70 55
EV/EBIT HK$122.34 HK$160.02 HK$197.70 66
EV/EBITDA HK$119.00 HK$155.57 HK$192.14 67
EV/Revenue HK$71.64 HK$98.36 HK$125.08 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$10.94 HK$14.66 HK$21.88 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$87.88 HK$173.10 HK$316.20 70
Rev-Margin DCF HK$90.53 HK$158.06 HK$299.16 64
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$29.63 HK$40.48 HK$204.38 59

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$181.31) versus Dividend Discount (HK$14.21). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (70).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.7 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 4.36 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2300 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7
Dividend yield 0.9%
Net margin 29.7% FY2025
Return on equity 31.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% avg 4y
Operating margin 61.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY) +138% 3y avg +44.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +35.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$12.5B FY2025
Net cash HK$20.7B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 79/100

Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39

Profitability 62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 78
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 83
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Zijin Gold International Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, refining, and sale of gold and other non-ferrous metals. The company's principal products include gold bullion, alloy, doré, bars, and gold concentrate.

Full company description

Zijin Gold International Company Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, mining, processing, smelting, refining, and sale of gold and other non-ferrous metals. The company's principal products include gold bullion, alloy, doré, bars, and gold concentrate. It operates in Colombia, Suriname, Australia, Tajikistan, Ghana, Guyana, Papua New Guinea, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. The company was formerly known as Jinfeng (HK) International Mining Company Limited. Zijin Gold International Company Limited was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Kowloon, Hong Kong. Zijin Gold International Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Gold Mountains (Hong Kong) International Mining Company Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd reported revenue of $37.7B in FY2025 versus $12.5B in FY2022, a compound +44.6%/yr. Reported net income was $11.2B in FY2025, compounding +107.3%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$37.7B
Latest YoY
+72.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+44.6%
EBIT margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
27.4% (2022) → 48.6% (2025)
Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: rate outside our plausibility band
not computed
Revenue +44.6%/yr
FY22 $12.5B
FY23 $16.0B
FY24 $21.8B
FY25 $37.7B
Net income +107.3%/yr
FY22 $1.3B
FY23 $1.6B
FY24 $3.5B
FY25 $11.2B

2259 screens 65% overvalued. Compare with Newmont Corporation →

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Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd · Fair Value
HK$96.81 −65%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2259

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Gold · 246 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Return on assets 18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 138% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.01× · Below median

Valuation Multiples vs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.55× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.89× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.6× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+9.7 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 3 years+44.6 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price4.00 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models9.8 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 100
PAST100 · sector 1
HEALTH100 · sector 98
DIVIDEND18 · sector 21

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Newmont Corporation NEMCL $128.00 $112.82 −12%
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥32.21 ¥39.42 +22%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM C$268.76 C$213.40 −21%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $41.23 $50.66 +23%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $266.18 $96.63 −64%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM C$201.40 C$56.05 −72%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $97.92 $88.63 −9%
Kinross Gold Corporation K C$38.29 C$34.62 −10%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $262.11 $93.56 −64%
Northern Star Resources Limited NST A$23.19 A$15.98 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$96.81 versus a price of HK$160.00, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2259?
Our model-based fair value for Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd is HK$96.81 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$160.00.
What is the quality score of 2259?
Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$96.81 (as of Aug 26, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$70.09, optimistic scenario HK$166.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$96.81, about −39% upside versus a price of HK$160.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$70.09, optimistic scenario HK$166.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the net profit margin of 2259?
The net profit margin of Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd is about 34.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 34.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.88% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +9.7 % per year for ten years (discount rate 9.8 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +44.6 % per year. As of Aug 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 2259 use?
Our models discount Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd it is HK$96.81 per share (as of Aug 26, 2026), against a price of HK$160.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 26, 2026, 2259 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$160.00, fair value HK$96.81, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2259?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$160.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$96.81). For Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd the two are HK$63.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd worth?
The market values Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd at about HK$252B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 26, 2026). Per share that is HK$160.00; our models calculate a fair value of HK$96.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2259?
Our models span a range for Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$70.09, base HK$96.81, optimistic HK$166.69 per share (as of Aug 26, 2026, price HK$160.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2259?
Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Aug 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$96.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 2.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (2259)?
Balance-sheet figures for Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd (as of Aug 26, 2026): return on equity 31.7%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2259 from its 52-week high?
Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd trades at HK$160.00, about 40% below its 52-week high of HK$264.85 and 90% above the low of HK$84.20 (as of Aug 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$96.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 26, 2026: price HK$160.00, calculated fair value HK$96.81 (−39%), Quality Score 79/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2259 calculated?
We run Zijin Gold Intl Co Ltd through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$96.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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