Duratec Ltd (DUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Duratec Ltd A$2.36, price A$2.37, upside -0.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.2589 – A$2.96 · fair‑value band A$1.57 – A$4.58 · the A$2.37 price screens above the A$2.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Duratec Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of assessment, protection, remediation, and refurbishment services to a range of assets primarily for steel and concrete infrastructure in Australia. It operates through Defence, Mining & Industrial, Building & Façade, and Energy segments.
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Duratec Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the provision of assessment, protection, remediation, and refurbishment services to a range of assets primarily for steel and concrete infrastructure in Australia. It operates through Defence, Mining & Industrial, Building & Façade, and Energy segments. The Defence segment delivers capital facilities, infrastructure, and estate works program projects. The Mining & Industrial segment offers preventative maintenance programmes. The Building & Facade segment provides facade condition assessments and restorations services. The Energy segment is involved in the operation of non-defence capital facilities, remediation, and refurbishment of critical assets. The company also offers asset protection, laboratory services, waterproofing, fitout and refurbishment, infrastructure maintaining and upgrading, facade remediation and cladding replacement, durability engineering, specialist access systems, construction, petrography lab serviced, spatial integration, and jack up barge hire solutions. The company serves defense, mining, transport, marine, energy, building and façade, heritage, property, industrial, and water infrastructure industries. Duratec Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Wangara, Australia.
Stock analysis
Duratec Ltd (DUR) currently trades at A$2.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.36, implying the stock looks roughly 0.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$2.67 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$2.37 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.4700, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.57 (bear) to A$4.58 (bull), the price of A$2.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Duratec Ltd reported revenue of A$573M in FY2025 versus A$236M in FY2021, a compound +24.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$22.8M in FY2025, compounding +33.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap A$624M (≈ $439M) · P/E ratio 26.3 · P/S ratio 1.05 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0900 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 30.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at 0%, DUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$1.57Fair Value A$2.36Bull A$4.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0650 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 4%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the price and +7.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 822 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)31% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Duratec Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DUR
Frequently asked questions
Is Duratec Ltd (DUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.36 versus a price of A$2.37, about −0% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of DUR?
Our model-based fair value for Duratec Ltd is A$2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.37.
What is the quality score of DUR?
Duratec Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.57, optimistic scenario A$4.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Duratec Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.36, about −0% upside versus a price of A$2.37 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$1.57, optimistic scenario A$4.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Duratec Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$559M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Duratec Ltd pay a dividend?
Duratec Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Duratec Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DUR use?
Our models discount Duratec Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Duratec Ltd that is +14.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Duratec Ltd (DUR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Duratec Ltd grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies +14.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Duratec Ltd (DUR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Duratec Ltd (+14.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.53 %: that much free cash flow Duratec Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Duratec Ltd it is A$2.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$2.37. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Duratec Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DUR trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.37, fair value A$2.36, a gap of about −0% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.36). For Duratec Ltd the two are A$0.0100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Duratec Ltd worth?
The market values Duratec Ltd at about A$624M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$2.37; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DUR?
Our models span a range for Duratec Ltd: cautious scenario A$1.57, base A$2.36, optimistic A$4.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$2.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DUR?
Duratec Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$2.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.9, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Duratec Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 30.6%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DUR from its 52-week high?
Duratec Ltd trades at A$2.37, about 20% below its 52-week high of A$2.96 and 39% above the low of A$1.70 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Duratec Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Duratec Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$2.37, calculated fair value A$2.36 (−0%), Quality Score 55/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DUR calculated?
We run Duratec Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Duratec Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$2.37. Our model-based fair value is A$2.36, about −0% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Duratec Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$1.57 to A$4.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Key figures of Duratec Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The market capitalisation of Duratec Ltd is A$624M (≈ $439M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Duratec Ltd is 1.05 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Earnings per share at Duratec Ltd are A$0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The dividend yield of Duratec Ltd is 1.1% (payout 27.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The net margin of Duratec Ltd is 4.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Duratec Ltd is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Duratec Ltd is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
The operating margin of Duratec Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Revenue at Duratec Ltd is growing −4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Duratec Ltd (DUR)?
Earnings per share at Duratec Ltd are growing +1.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Duratec Ltd (DUR) hold?
Duratec Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$34.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026