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Develop Global Ltd (DVP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Develop Global Ltd A$3.08, price A$5.21, upside -40.9%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000179707

DG Some data Sep 23, 2026

Develop Global Ltd

DVP · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$3.08 · Strongly overvalued (−41%)
!Quality 31/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +574.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.9% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Moderate moat 46/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$7.51 A$1.76 Fair Value A$3.08 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.76 – A$7.51 · fair‑value band A$2.31 – A$3.85 · the A$5.21 price screens above the A$3.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Develop Global Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral resource properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, zinc, lead, silver, gold, and lithium deposits.

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Develop Global Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and development of mineral resource properties in Australia. It primarily explores for copper, zinc, lead, silver, gold, and lithium deposits. The company holds interest in the Sulphur Springs project that includes Sulphur Springs and Kangaroo Caves deposits and tenements; the Woodlawn Zinc-Copper Project is located at Lachlan Fold belt in New South Wales; and the Pioneer Dome Lithium Project covering approximately an area of 389 square kilometer located in the south of Kalgoorlie and north of the Esperance port. It also provides underground mining services. The company was formerly known as Venturex Resources Limited and changed its name to Develop Global Limited in October 2021. Develop Global Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Leederville, Australia.

Stock analysis

Develop Global Ltd (DVP) currently trades at A$5.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.08, implying the stock looks roughly 69.3% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$9.45 per share, and 4 of the 13 models we run sit above the A$5.21 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at A$1.05, and 9 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: A$2.31 (bear) to A$3.85 (bull), the price of A$5.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Develop Global Ltd reported revenue of A$231M in FY2025 versus A$10.9K in FY2021, a compound +1,106.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$72.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$1.9B (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 6.03 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2700 · Net margin 31.3% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −33.4% · Operating margin −2.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −41%, DVP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$2.31 Fair Value A$3.08 Bull A$3.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.2700 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income A$1.63 A$1.82 A$3.05 72
Owner Earnings A$1.85 A$3.64 A$6.96 67
Growth-Adj P/E A$6.61 A$9.45 A$12.28 65
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings A$1.85 A$3.64 A$6.96 67
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$1.49 A$10.40 A$14.60 61
Lynch FV A$5.37 A$7.68 A$9.98 59
PEG = 1.0 A$5.37 A$7.68 A$9.98 55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 64
DDM Multi-Stage n/a A$0.0100 A$0.0100 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$2.80 A$3.73 A$4.66 63
P/S Multiple A$0.7900 A$1.05 A$1.32 58
P/B Multiple A$2.80 A$3.73 A$4.66 55
EV/EBITDA A$0.7700 A$0.9700 A$1.16 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.9500 A$1.28 A$1.91 51
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$1.63 A$1.82 A$3.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$6.61 A$9.45 A$12.28 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 80
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 57
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+57.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+271.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+574.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +90.6% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+74.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−23,214.9% (2020) → −1.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

DVP screens 69% overvalued. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Below median
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Return on assets −1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 54% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.47× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)59 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥36.66 ¥54.86 +50%

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Develop Global Ltd · Fair Value
A$3.08 −69%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Develop Global Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DVP

Frequently asked questions

Is Develop Global Ltd (DVP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.08 versus a price of A$5.21, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DVP?
Our model-based fair value for Develop Global Ltd is A$3.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$5.21.
What is the quality score of DVP?
Develop Global Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.31, optimistic scenario A$3.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Develop Global Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.08, about −41% upside versus a price of A$5.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$2.31, optimistic scenario A$3.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Develop Global Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$294M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Develop Global Ltd it is A$3.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$5.21. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Develop Global Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, DVP trades above its calculated fair value: price A$5.21, fair value A$3.08, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DVP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$5.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.08). For Develop Global Ltd the two are A$2.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Develop Global Ltd worth?
The market values Develop Global Ltd at about A$1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$5.21; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DVP?
Our models span a range for Develop Global Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.31, base A$3.08, optimistic A$3.85 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$5.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DVP?
Develop Global Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 4.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Develop Global Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DVP from its 52-week high?
Develop Global Ltd trades at A$5.21, about 31% below its 52-week high of A$7.51 and 65% above the low of A$3.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Develop Global Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, Hindustan Zinc Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Develop Global Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$5.21, calculated fair value A$3.08 (−41%), Quality Score 31/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DVP calculated?
We run Develop Global Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$3.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Develop Global Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was A$5.21. Our model-based fair value is A$3.08, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Develop Global Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Develop Global Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The market capitalisation of Develop Global Ltd is A$1.9B (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Develop Global Ltd is 6.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Earnings per share at Develop Global Ltd are A$0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The net margin of Develop Global Ltd is 31.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Develop Global Ltd is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Develop Global Ltd is −33.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
The operating margin of Develop Global Ltd is −2.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Revenue at Develop Global Ltd is growing +53.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +272%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Develop Global Ltd (DVP)?
Earnings per share at Develop Global Ltd are growing +17.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Develop Global Ltd (DVP) generate?
The free cash flow of Develop Global Ltd is −A$47.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Develop Global Ltd (DVP) carry?
The net debt of Develop Global Ltd is A$99.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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