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New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of New Oriental Education & Technology Group BRL 6.86, price BRL 19.16, upside -64.2%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
New Oriental Education & Technology Group
E1DU34 · SAStretched ValuationQuality growthStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value R$6.86 · Strongly overvalued (−64.2%)
✓Quality 71/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!6.3% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 48/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$2.91 – R$30.90 · fair‑value band R$5.14 – R$8.42 · the R$19.16 price screens above the R$6.86 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. engages in the provision of private educational services under the New Oriental brand in the People's Republic of China.
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New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. engages in the provision of private educational services under the New Oriental brand in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Educational Services and Test Preparation Courses; Private Label Products and Livestreaming E-Commerce; Overseas Study Consulting Services; and Educational Materials and Distribution. The company offers test preparation courses to students taking language and entrance exams used by educational institutions in the United States, the Commonwealth countries, and the People's Republic of China. It also provides non-academic tutoring courses; intelligent learning systems and devices to offer a digital learning experience for students; and overseas studies consulting services. In addition, the company offers online education services through the Koolearn.com platform. Further, it develops and edits educational materials for language training and test preparation. In addition, the company offers educational programs, services, and products to students through schools; learning centers; and bookstores, as well as through its online learning platforms. New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34) currently trades at R$19.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$6.86, 64.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$4.65 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$19.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$1.03, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$5.14 (bear) to R$8.42 (bull), the price of R$19.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
New Oriental Education & Technology Group reported revenue of R$4.9B in FY2025 versus R$4.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was R$372M in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$42.8B (≈ $8.2B) · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) R$0.9300 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −64%, E1DU34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (R$0.6200 to R$6.47). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear R$5.14
Fair Value R$6.86
Bull R$8.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$3.94
R$6.47
R$10.70
78
Growth DCF
R$3.91
R$6.19
R$9.87
77
Residual Income
R$1.33
R$1.48
R$1.87
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$3.94
R$6.47
R$10.70
78
Owner Earnings
R$2.05
R$3.12
R$4.92
75
5Y Revenue Exit
R$2.82
R$4.15
R$5.91
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$3.06
R$4.65
R$6.61
75
5Y P/E Exit
R$3.34
R$5.22
R$7.35
70
10Y Revenue Exit
R$3.13
R$4.51
R$6.54
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$3.34
R$4.87
R$7.11
68
10Y P/E Exit
R$3.52
R$5.27
R$7.72
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$1.06
R$4.94
R$6.78
64
Lynch FV
R$1.30
R$1.86
R$2.42
61
PEG = 1.0
R$1.30
R$1.86
R$2.42
57
EPV
R$1.76
R$1.93
R$2.08
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$0.3600
R$0.7200
R$1.09
67
DDM Multi-Stage
R$0.3600
R$0.6200
R$0.7600
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$2.57
R$3.43
R$4.28
63
P/S Multiple
R$1.85
R$2.46
R$3.08
58
P/B Multiple
R$1.99
R$2.65
R$3.31
55
EV/EBIT
R$3.06
R$3.86
R$4.66
66
EV/EBITDA
R$2.79
R$3.50
R$4.21
67
EV/Revenue
R$2.28
R$2.97
R$3.66
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$0.7700
R$1.03
R$1.53
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$3.91
R$6.19
R$9.87
77
Rev-Margin DCF
R$2.82
R$4.15
R$5.87
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$1.33
R$1.48
R$1.87
76
ROIC Compounder
R$1.86
R$2.26
R$2.81
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$2.13
R$3.04
R$3.95
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
71/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in BRL (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+4.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
2025 sits 53% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.0% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+13.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+13.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+9.0%
E1DU34 screens overvalued: fair value 64% below the price. Compare with TAL Education Group →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- New Oriental to Report First Quarter 2027 Financial Results on October 28, 2026
- New Oriental Announces Filing of Annual Report on Form 20-F for Fiscal Year 2026
- New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU) Is Up 20.3% After New Capital Return Plan Unveiled
- New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU) As Earnings And Guidance Test Its Undervalued Case
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAL Education Group TAL | $12.00 | $32.66 | +172% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $37.40 | $40.60 | +9% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $120.75 | $151.99 | +26% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹134.36 | ₹33.64 | −75% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $147.28 | $162.01 | +10% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $75.59 | $171.72 | +127% |
| McGraw Hill, Inc MH | $13.11 | $8.95 | −32% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $30.94 | $41.01 | +33% |
| Youdao, Inc DAO | $15.15 | $15.13 | +0% |
| Sanoma Oyj SANOMA | €9.68 | €6.51 | −33% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$6.86 versus a price of R$19.16, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of E1DU34?
Our model-based fair value for New Oriental Education & Technology Group is R$6.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$19.16.
What is the quality score of E1DU34?
New Oriental Education & Technology Group has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$6.86 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$5.14, optimistic scenario R$8.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the New Oriental Education & Technology Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$6.86, about −64% upside versus a price of R$19.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$5.14, optimistic scenario R$8.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
New Oriental Education & Technology Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$5.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does New Oriental Education & Technology Group pay a dividend?
New Oriental Education & Technology Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.26% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, New Oriental Education & Technology Group would have to grow free cash flow by +28.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of E1DU34 use?
Our models discount New Oriental Education & Technology Group at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For New Oriental Education & Technology Group that is +28.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at New Oriental Education & Technology Group grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies +28.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into New Oriental Education & Technology Group (+28.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.02 %: that much free cash flow New Oriental Education & Technology Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For New Oriental Education & Technology Group it is R$6.86 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of R$19.16. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is New Oriental Education & Technology Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, E1DU34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$19.16, fair value R$6.86, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of E1DU34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$19.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$6.86). For New Oriental Education & Technology Group the two are R$12.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is New Oriental Education & Technology Group worth?
The market values New Oriental Education & Technology Group at about R$42.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is R$19.16; our models calculate a fair value of R$6.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about E1DU34?
Our models span a range for New Oriental Education & Technology Group: cautious scenario R$5.14, base R$6.86, optimistic R$8.42 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price R$19.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is E1DU34 from its 52-week high?
New Oriental Education & Technology Group trades at R$19.16, about 12% below its 52-week high of R$21.80 and 23% above the low of R$15.53 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$6.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to New Oriental Education & Technology Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Covista Inc, Physicswallah Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is New Oriental Education & Technology Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price R$19.16, calculated fair value R$6.86 (−64%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of E1DU34 calculated?
We run New Oriental Education & Technology Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$6.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. New Oriental Education & Technology Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$19.16. Our model-based fair value is R$6.86, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with New Oriental Education & Technology Group right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$8.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Key figures of New Oriental Education & Technology Group
How large is the market capitalisation of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The market capitalisation of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is R$42.8B (≈ $8.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 18.4 (as of Jul 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 1.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
Earnings per share at New Oriental Education & Technology Group are R$0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The dividend yield of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 6.3% (payout 129%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The net margin of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is −0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
The operating margin of New Oriental Education & Technology Group is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
Revenue at New Oriental Education & Technology Group is growing +19.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at New Oriental Education & Technology Group (E1DU34)?
Earnings per share at New Oriental Education & Technology Group are growing +60.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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