TAL Education Group (TAL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of TAL Education Group $33.07, price $11.98, upside +176.0%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.75 – $25.42 · fair‑value band $19.30 – $55.58 · the $11.98 price screens below the $33.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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TAL Education Group provides smart learning solutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers learning services through Xueersi Peiyou small classes, personalized premium services, and online course offerings.
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TAL Education Group provides smart learning solutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers learning services through Xueersi Peiyou small classes, personalized premium services, and online course offerings. The company also develops and provides learning content solutions for learners across print, digital and device-based formats, including print books, books integrated with digital learning experiences, learning devices, and mobile applications. In addition, it offers online education services, including live class and pre-recorded course content through www.xueersi.com. Further, the company engages in development and sale of software, network, and learning devices; investment management and consulting services. TAL Education Group was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
TAL Education Group (TAL) currently trades at $11.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $33.07, implying the stock looks roughly 63.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $54.53 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.21, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $19.30 (bear) to $55.58 (bull), the price of $11.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
TAL Education Group reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2026 versus $4.4B in FY2022, a compound −9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $533M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.4% · Operating margin 9.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 176%, TAL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $19.30Fair Value $33.07Bull $55.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5243 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+34.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.2% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.2%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.8% (2021) → 9.2% (2026)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.3% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+176% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth32% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TAL Education Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TAL
Frequently asked questions
Is TAL Education Group (TAL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $33.07 versus a price of $11.98, about +176% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TAL?
Our model-based fair value for TAL Education Group is $33.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.98.
What is the quality score of TAL?
TAL Education Group has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $33.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.30, optimistic scenario $55.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TAL Education Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $33.07, about +176% upside versus a price of $11.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.30, optimistic scenario $55.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
TAL Education Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into TAL Education Group (TAL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TAL Education Group would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAL use?
Our models discount TAL Education Group at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.07, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TAL Education Group that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TAL Education Group (TAL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TAL Education Group grew -7.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TAL Education Group (TAL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TAL Education Group (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.07 %: that much free cash flow TAL Education Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TAL Education Group it is $33.07 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.98. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TAL Education Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TAL trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.98, fair value $33.07, a gap of about +176% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($33.07). For TAL Education Group the two are $21.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TAL Education Group worth?
The market values TAL Education Group at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.98; our models calculate a fair value of $33.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAL?
Our models span a range for TAL Education Group: cautious scenario $19.30, base $33.07, optimistic $55.58 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TAL?
TAL Education Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $33.07 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 9.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TAL?
The PEG ratio of TAL Education Group is 9.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Balance-sheet figures for TAL Education Group (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAL from its 52-week high?
TAL Education Group trades at $11.98, about 7% below its 52-week high of $12.91 and 34% above the low of $8.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $33.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TAL Education Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Grand Canyon Education, Inc, Physicswallah Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TAL Education Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.98, calculated fair value $33.07 (+176%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAL calculated?
We run TAL Education Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $33.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. TAL Education Group currently trades 176 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.98. Our model-based fair value is $33.07, about +176% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TAL Education Group right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($19.30 to $55.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of TAL Education Group
How large is the market capitalisation of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The market capitalisation of TAL Education Group is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TAL Education Group is 1.82 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Earnings per share at TAL Education Group are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The net margin of TAL Education Group is 17.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TAL Education Group is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TAL Education Group is −0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TAL Education Group (TAL)?
The operating margin of TAL Education Group is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Revenue at TAL Education Group is growing +31.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TAL Education Group (TAL)?
Earnings per share at TAL Education Group are growing +536% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does TAL Education Group (TAL) hold?
TAL Education Group holds more cash than debt, $1.4B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026