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Erste Group (EBO) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · DE · Market cap €44.4B · ISIN AT0000652011

What is Erste Group really worth?

EG Erste Group EBO · XETRA
Price€123.80
Fair Value€148.83
Upside+20.2%
Quality60/100

A solid business, trading 17% below our fair value of €148.83.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Erste Group is €148.83 per share against a price of €123.80, so the fair value sits 20% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.3 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 30.4% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Wide moat 69/100

For context

·0.61% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €111.62 – €186.04

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €153.58 to €148.83 (−3.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€125.50 €18.26 Fair Value €148.83 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €18.26 – €125.50 · fair‑value band €111.62 – €186.04 · the €123.80 price screens below the €148.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Erste Group (EBO) currently trades at €123.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €148.83, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €153.58 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €123.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €39.36, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Erste Group generated revenue of €12.0B at a net margin of 30.4%. Revenue grew 28.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at €48.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €111.62 (bear case) to €186.04 (bull case); at €123.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 20%, EBO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €5.33 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence €59.98 €77.59 €199.82 68
Gordon GGM €31.77 €63.15 €104.80 66
DDM Multi-Stage €31.77 €48.74 €66.99 66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €31.77 €63.15 €104.80 66
DDM Multi-Stage €31.77 €48.74 €66.99 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €115.19 €153.58 €191.98 63
P/B Multiple €115.19 €153.58 €191.98 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €29.37 €39.36 €58.75 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence €59.98 €77.59 €199.82 68

Widest divergence: Multiples (€153.58) versus Asset-Based (€39.36). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.4
P/S ratio 2.53 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €8.57 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4
Dividend yield 0.6% payout 8.8%
Net margin 17.5% FY2025
Return on equity 12.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 43.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €12.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +28.9% 3y avg +13.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €4.3B FY2025
Net debt €48.4B FY2025 · ≈ 11.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 25
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 80
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 76
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 82
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 96
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers.

Full company description

Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers. It offers savings and current accounts, and term deposit products; consumer credit and mortgage lending; commercial real estate, investment loan, acquisition and leveraged finance, project finance, and product neutral financial advice; and factoring, accounts receivable purchasing, working capital finance, and structured trade finance, and ErsteConfirming, a supply chain finance solution. The company also provides interests and FX hedging, letters of credit, documentary collections, and guarantees; cash-management solutions, such as cash pooling, payment transactions, digital banking, payment factory, VIRTUAL.IBAN, and POS-terminals and e-commerce; equity interests and investments, revolving export credit lines, and customer financing. In addition, it offers loan syndication, debt capital market, and equity capital market services; custody and brokerage services, including safekeeping, settlement, corporate action events, tax reclaim assistance, proxy voting, brokerage services, securities lending, clearing services for remote members on Vienna Stock Exchange, and market news services; and George, a digital retail product. The company operates in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, and internationally. Erste Group Bank AG was founded in 1819 and is based in Vienna, Austria.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Erste Group reported revenue of €20.1B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€20.1B
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+34.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.5% · in EUR
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+19.9%
Dividend yield0.6%
Trend Two data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 19.9% vs 10Y 12.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15.3% (2020) → 26.9% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop363% (2014) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in EUR
Revenue +21.5%/yr
FY21 €9.2B
FY22 €13.7B
FY23 €22.6B
FY24 €22.5B
FY25 €20.1B
Net income +16.2%/yr
FY21 €1.9B
FY22 €2.2B
FY23 €3.0B
FY24 €3.1B
FY25 €3.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +13.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.8 %

of which total revenue +11.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %

EBIT margin +1.3 %
Tax rate +0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Erste Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EBO.XETRA

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1070 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −16% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 30% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 44% · Above median
Revenue growth 29% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.41× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.26× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.29× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 12.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 7.57× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 75.65 SGD 40.48 SGD −46%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$47.96 HK$76.51 +60%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.78 €5.66 −17%
HDFC Bank Limited HDB $23.18 $24.12 +4%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €104.54 €144.64 +38%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €84.71 €77.62 −8%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.74 $9.69 −10%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,423 ₹835.21 −41%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 31.07 SGD 19.80 SGD −36%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €13.52 €8.85 −35%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Erste Group (EBO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €148.83 versus a price of €123.80, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EBO?
Our model-based fair value for Erste Group is €148.83 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €123.80.
What is the quality score of EBO?
Erste Group has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Erste Group (EBO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €148.83 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €111.62, optimistic scenario €186.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Erste Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €148.83, about +20% upside versus a price of €123.80 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €111.62, optimistic scenario €186.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Erste Group (EBO)?
Erste Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €12.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of EBO?
The net profit margin of Erste Group is about 30.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 30.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Erste Group pay a dividend?
Erste Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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