Erste Group (EBO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · DE · Market cap €44.4B · ISIN AT0000652011
What is Erste Group really worth?
A solid business, trading 17% below our fair value of €148.83.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Erste Group is €148.83 per share against a price of €123.80, so the fair value sits 20% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €153.58 to €148.83 (−3.1%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +2.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €18.26 – €125.50 · fair‑value band €111.62 – €186.04 · the €123.80 price screens below the €148.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Erste Group (EBO) currently trades at €123.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €148.83, implying the stock looks roughly 16.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €153.58 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the €123.80 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €39.36, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Erste Group generated revenue of €12.0B at a net margin of 30.4%. Revenue grew 28.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.5%. Net debt stands at €48.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €111.62 (bear case) to €186.04 (bull case); at €123.80, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 80% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 20%, EBO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €5.33 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€153.58) versus Asset-Based (€39.36). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers.
Full company description
Erste Group Bank AG provides a range of banking and other financial services to retail, corporate, and public sector customers. It offers savings and current accounts, and term deposit products; consumer credit and mortgage lending; commercial real estate, investment loan, acquisition and leveraged finance, project finance, and product neutral financial advice; and factoring, accounts receivable purchasing, working capital finance, and structured trade finance, and ErsteConfirming, a supply chain finance solution. The company also provides interests and FX hedging, letters of credit, documentary collections, and guarantees; cash-management solutions, such as cash pooling, payment transactions, digital banking, payment factory, VIRTUAL.IBAN, and POS-terminals and e-commerce; equity interests and investments, revolving export credit lines, and customer financing. In addition, it offers loan syndication, debt capital market, and equity capital market services; custody and brokerage services, including safekeeping, settlement, corporate action events, tax reclaim assistance, proxy voting, brokerage services, securities lending, clearing services for remote members on Vienna Stock Exchange, and market news services; and George, a digital retail product. The company operates in Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, and internationally. Erste Group Bank AG was founded in 1819 and is based in Vienna, Austria.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Erste Group reported revenue of €20.1B in FY2025 versus €9.2B in FY2021, a compound +21.5%/yr. Reported net income was €3.5B in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1070 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.18 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €104.54 | €144.64 | +38% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,423 | ₹835.21 | −41% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
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