Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Origin Energy Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.21 – A$12.79 · fair‑value band A$5.78 – A$9.63 · the A$11.66 price screens above the A$7.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments.
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Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products. In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Stock analysis
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) currently trades at A$11.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$7.70, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$11.26 per share, and 3 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$11.66 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at A$2.77, and 12 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$5.78 (bear) to A$9.63 (bull), the price of A$11.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Origin Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$17.1B in FY2025 versus A$11.9B in FY2021, a compound +9.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$1.5B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$20.1B (≈ $14.3B) · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 1.71 · EPS (TTM) A$0.5900 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 8.6% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −34%, ORG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$5.78Fair Value A$7.70Bull A$9.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+23.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 8%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 6%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 52 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside−32% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)19.8× · Pricier than median
P/B1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.79× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA13.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.09× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 5
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 6
PAST (return on equity)41· sector 37
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 48
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 79
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Origin Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORG
Frequently asked questions
Is Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$7.70 versus a price of A$11.66, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ORG?
Our model-based fair value for Origin Energy Ltd is A$7.70 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$11.66.
What is the quality score of ORG?
Origin Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$7.70 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$5.78, optimistic scenario A$9.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Origin Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$7.70, about −34% upside versus a price of A$11.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$5.78, optimistic scenario A$9.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Origin Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$16.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Origin Energy Ltd pay a dividend?
Origin Energy Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Origin Energy Ltd it is A$7.70 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of A$11.66. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Origin Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, ORG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$11.66, fair value A$7.70, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$11.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$7.70). For Origin Energy Ltd the two are A$3.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Origin Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Origin Energy Ltd at about A$20.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is A$11.66; our models calculate a fair value of A$7.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORG?
Our models span a range for Origin Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$5.78, base A$7.70, optimistic A$9.63 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price A$11.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORG?
Origin Energy Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$7.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.3, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 13.0.
What is the PEG ratio of ORG?
The PEG ratio of Origin Energy Ltd is 2.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Origin Energy Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORG from its 52-week high?
Origin Energy Ltd trades at A$11.66, about 9% below its 52-week high of A$12.84 and 16% above the low of A$10.09 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$7.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Origin Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Origin Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price A$11.66, calculated fair value A$7.70 (−34%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORG calculated?
We run Origin Energy Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$7.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Origin Energy Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was A$11.66. Our model-based fair value is A$7.70, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Origin Energy Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$9.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Origin Energy Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The market capitalisation of Origin Energy Ltd is A$20.1B (≈ $14.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Origin Energy Ltd is 1.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Ltd are A$0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The dividend yield of Origin Energy Ltd is 5.1% (payout 102%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The net margin of Origin Energy Ltd is 8.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Origin Energy Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Origin Energy Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
The operating margin of Origin Energy Ltd is 7.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Revenue at Origin Energy Ltd is growing −9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)?
Earnings per share at Origin Energy Ltd are growing −45.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) generate?
The free cash flow of Origin Energy Ltd is −A$1.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Origin Energy Ltd (ORG) carry?
The net debt of Origin Energy Ltd is A$4.7B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026