The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc BRL 8.73, price BRL 20.14, upside -56.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$12.25 – R$79.22 · fair‑value band R$6.59 – R$11.88 · the R$20.14 price screens above the R$8.73 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide.
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The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products worldwide. The company provides skin care products, including moisturizers, serums, cleansers, toners, eye care, body care, exfoliators, acne care and oil correctors, facial masks, and sun care products; and makeup products, such as foundations, powders, concealers and setting sprays, lipsticks, lip liners and lip glosses, mascaras, and eyeshadows and eyeliners, as well as compacts, brushes, and other makeup tools. It also offers fragrance products in various forms comprising parfum, eau de parfum, eau de toilette, eau de cologne, and body spray, as well as lotions, creams, powders, candles and soaps; and hair care products, including shampoos, conditioners, styling products, treatment, finishing sprays, and hair color products, as well as sells ancillary products and services. The company provides its products under the La Mer, Jo Malone London, TOM FORD, AERIN Beauty, Le Labo, Editions de Parfums Frédéric Malle, KILIAN PARIS, BALMAIN Beauty, Estée Lauder, Clinique, M·A·C, The Ordinary, Aveda, Bobbi Brown Cosmetics, Too Faced, Dr.Jart+, Bumble and bumble, Smashbox, Darphin Paris, Lab Series, Avestan, Loopha, Origins, NIOD, Aramis, and GLAMGLOW brands. It sells its products through department stores, duty-free retailers, specialty multi retailers, online pure players, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and top-tier salons and spas, as well as direct-to-consumer businesses across freestanding stores, and brand websites and third-party online platforms. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. was founded in 1946 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34) currently trades at R$20.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$8.73, 56.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$15.71 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$20.14 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at R$1.33, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$6.59 (bear) to R$11.88 (bull), the price of R$20.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc reported revenue of $15.0B in FY2026 versus $17.7B in FY2022, a compound −4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $182M in FY2026, compounding −47.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$183B (≈ $35.0B) · P/E ratio 191.5 · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) R$0.1100 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −57%, ELCI34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$6.59Fair Value R$8.73Bull R$11.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 11%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare The Estée Lauder Companies Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−51.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.8% · Below median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.79× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)191.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.11× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)32· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)19· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)11· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Estée Lauder Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELCI34
Frequently asked questions
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$8.73 versus a price of R$20.14, about −57% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELCI34?
Our model-based fair value for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is R$8.73 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$20.14.
What is the quality score of ELCI34?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$8.73 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$6.59, optimistic scenario R$11.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$8.73, about −57% upside versus a price of R$20.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$6.59, optimistic scenario R$11.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $15.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc pay a dividend?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.95% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc it is R$8.73 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of R$20.14. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, ELCI34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$20.14, fair value R$8.73, a gap of about −57% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELCI34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$20.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$8.73). For The Estée Lauder Companies Inc the two are R$11.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc worth?
The market values The Estée Lauder Companies Inc at about R$183B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is R$20.14; our models calculate a fair value of R$8.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELCI34?
Our models span a range for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc: cautious scenario R$6.59, base R$8.73, optimistic R$11.88 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price R$20.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELCI34?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 191.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$8.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ELCI34?
The PEG ratio of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 2.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Balance-sheet figures for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 1.79 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELCI34 from its 52-week high?
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc trades at R$20.14, about 23% below its 52-week high of R$26.18 and 36% above the low of R$14.76 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$8.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Estée Lauder Companies Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price R$20.14, calculated fair value R$8.73 (−57%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELCI34 calculated?
We run The Estée Lauder Companies Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$8.73, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Estée Lauder Companies Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$20.14. Our model-based fair value is R$8.73, about −57% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Estée Lauder Companies Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$11.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$6.59 to R$11.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The market capitalisation of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is R$183B (≈ $35.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 2.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Earnings per share at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc are R$0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 191.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The dividend yield of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 7.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The net margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 1.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 6.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
The operating margin of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Revenue at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is growing +6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34)?
Earnings per share at The Estée Lauder Companies Inc are growing −45.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34) generate?
The free cash flow of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The Estée Lauder Companies Inc (ELCI34) carry?
The net debt of The Estée Lauder Companies Inc is $3.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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