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Elia Group (ELIAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Elia Group $73.20, price $138, upside -47.1%, quality 30 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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EG
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Some data
Oct 3, 2026
Elia Group
ELIAF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $73.20 · Strongly overvalued (−47.1%)
!Quality 30/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +14.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!1.5% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $80.63 – $154.75 · fair‑value band $73.20 – $81.35 · the $138.38 price screens above the $73.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Elia Group SA/NV develops and operates as a transmission system operator in Belgium and Germany. The company provides electricity transmission solutions; generates, imports, and exports electricity; and offers engineering consultancy services. Elia Group SA/NV was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
Stock analysis
Elia Group (ELIAF) currently trades at $138.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.20, 47.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $133.91 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $138.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $56.32, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $73.20 (bear) to $81.35 (bull), the price of $138.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Elia Group reported revenue of €4.4B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was €586M in FY2025, compounding +18.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $16.9B · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 2.86 · EPS (TTM) $6.39 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 13.2% · Return on equity 9.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −47%, ELIAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $73.20
Fair Value $73.20
Bull $81.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.28 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$68.49
$72.31
$80.15
76
Growth-Adj P/E
$93.74
$133.91
$174.08
67
Graham-Dodd
$41.09
$241.54
$336.31
63
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$41.09
$241.54
$336.31
63
Lynch FV
$68.48
$97.83
$127.19
61
PEG = 1.0
$68.48
$97.83
$127.19
57
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$81.58
$108.77
$135.97
63
P/S Multiple
$77.05
$102.73
$128.41
58
P/B Multiple
$77.05
$102.73
$128.41
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
$26.25
$66.74
61
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$43.17
$87.89
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
n/a
$13.22
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$42.03
$56.32
$84.06
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$68.49
$72.31
$80.15
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$93.74
$133.91
$174.08
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
30/100
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
68
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
19
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
20
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
82
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
52
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
49/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.0% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 24%
ELIAF screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with NextEra Energy, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (8 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Is Elia Group (ENXTBR:ELI) Undervalued As Its CapEx Growth Story Meets A Rich P/E?
- Elia Group SA/NV (ELIAF) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth Amid Strategic ...
- Elia Group and CPP Investments expand partnership with acquisition of the Tarchon interconnector project
- Elia Group SA/NV (ELIAF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance Amid ...
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Electric stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NextEra Energy, Inc NEE | $75.74 | $29.97 | −60% |
| The Southern Company SO | $82.89 | $57.57 | −31% |
| Duke Energy Corporation DUK | $113.41 | $74.88 | −34% |
| American Electric Power Company AEP | $118.64 | $100.03 | −16% |
| Dominion Energy, Inc D | $60.76 | $37.84 | −38% |
| Entergy Corporation ETR | $98.10 | $37.37 | −62% |
| Xcel Energy Inc XEL | $69.39 | $54.92 | −21% |
| Exelon Corporation EXC | $40.32 | $36.01 | −11% |
| Consolidated Edison, Inc ED | $103.33 | $47.76 | −54% |
| PG&E Corporation PCG | $12.34 | $17.85 | +45% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Elia Group (ELIAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.20 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $138.38, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELIAF?
Our model-based fair value for Elia Group is $73.20 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $138.38.
What is the quality score of ELIAF?
Elia Group has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.20 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $73.20, optimistic scenario $81.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Elia Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.20, about −47% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $138.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $73.20, optimistic scenario $81.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Elia Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €4.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Elia Group pay a dividend?
Elia Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Elia Group it is $73.20 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $138.38. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Elia Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ELIAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $138.38, fair value $73.20, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELIAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($138.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.20). For Elia Group the two are $65.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Elia Group worth?
The market values Elia Group at about $16.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $138.38; our models calculate a fair value of $73.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELIAF?
Our models span a range for Elia Group: cautious scenario $73.20, base $73.20, optimistic $81.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $138.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELIAF?
Elia Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Elia Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 9.0%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 30/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELIAF from its 52-week high?
Elia Group trades at $138.38, about 11% below its 52-week high of $154.75 and 16% above the low of $119.52 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Elia Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Elia Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $138.38, calculated fair value $73.20 (−47%), Quality Score 30/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELIAF calculated?
We run Elia Group through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Elia Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $138.38. Our model-based fair value is $73.20, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Elia Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($81.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($73.20 to $81.35), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Elia Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The market capitalisation of Elia Group is $16.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Elia Group is 2.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group are $6.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The dividend yield of Elia Group is 1.5% (payout 32.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The net margin of Elia Group is 13.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Elia Group is 9.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Elia Group is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Elia Group (ELIAF)?
The operating margin of Elia Group is 36.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Revenue at Elia Group is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Elia Group (ELIAF)?
Earnings per share at Elia Group are growing −23.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Elia Group (ELIAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Elia Group is −€3.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Elia Group (ELIAF) carry?
The net debt of Elia Group is €14.0B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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