Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $272M
Ellomay Capital Ltd
ELLO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $20.90 to $7.83 (−62.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.69). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.85 to $11.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.01 – $36.62 · fair‑value band $5.85 – $11.69 · the $19.65 price screens above the $7.83 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) currently trades at $19.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.83, implying the stock looks roughly 60.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ellomay Capital Ltd generated revenue of $42.6M at a net margin of -48.3%. Revenue declined 2.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -16.9%. Net debt stands at $550M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.85 (bear case) to $11.69 (bull case); at $19.65, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -60%, ELLO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ellomay Capital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the initiation, development, construction, and production of renewable and clean energy projects in Europe, the United States, and Israel. The company owns photovoltaic (PV) plants comprising five PV plants in Spain.
Full company description
Ellomay Capital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the initiation, development, construction, and production of renewable and clean energy projects in Europe, the United States, and Israel. The company owns photovoltaic (PV) plants comprising five PV plants in Spain. It also engages in the operation of a dual-fuel operated power plant in Ashkelon, Israel; and construction of a hydro power plant in the Manara Cliff, Israel. In addition, it operates anaerobic digestion plants. The company was formerly known as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. and changed its name to Ellomay Capital Ltd. in April 2008. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ellomay Capital Ltd reported revenue of $33.9M in FY2025 versus $44.8M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.1M in FY2025.
ELLO screens 60% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 221 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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