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Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ellomay Capital Ltd $7.03, price $21.98, upside -68.0%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Utilities · US · Home Israel · ISIN IL0010826357

EC Ellomay Capital Ltd logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Ellomay Capital Ltd

ELLO · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $7.03 · Strongly overvalued (−68%)
!Quality 25/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −16.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -48.3% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/11)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$36.20 $10.01 Fair Value $7.03 Dec 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.01 – $36.20 · fair‑value band $5.25 – $10.50 · the $21.98 price screens above the $7.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Ellomay Capital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the initiation, development, construction, and production of renewable and clean energy projects in Europe, the United States, and Israel. The company owns photovoltaic (PV) plants comprising five PV plants in Spain.

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Ellomay Capital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the initiation, development, construction, and production of renewable and clean energy projects in Europe, the United States, and Israel. The company owns photovoltaic (PV) plants comprising five PV plants in Spain. It also engages in the operation of a dual-fuel operated power plant in Ashkelon, Israel; and construction of a hydro power plant in the Manara Cliff, Israel. In addition, it operates anaerobic digestion plants. The company was formerly known as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. and changed its name to Ellomay Capital Ltd. in April 2008. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

Stock analysis

Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) currently trades at $21.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.03, implying the stock looks roughly 212.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 90/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: $5.25 (bear) to $10.50 (bull), the price of $21.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Ellomay Capital Ltd reported revenue of €33.9M in FY2025 versus €44.8M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€2.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $278M · P/S ratio 6.39 · EPS (TTM) $−1.71 · Net margin −6.3% · Return on equity −16.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% · Operating margin −31.1% · Revenue (TTM) €42.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −68%, ELLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.25 Fair Value $7.03 Bull $10.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $5.11 $6.85 $10.22 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.11 $6.85 $10.22 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 25/100

Of which business quality 26 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 21
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 43
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 50
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 92
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.6% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ELLO screens 213% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 207 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −68% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −48% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −31% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.83× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.97× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 6.53× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 42.0× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥28.08 ¥30.89 +10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 135.75 kr 31.40 −77%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.62 ¥4.45 −54%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,301 ₹169.61 −87%
BEP BEP $29.08 $70.40 +142%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.56 €14.06 −40%
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥14.30 ¥17.08 +19%
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co 600905 ¥3.64 ¥2.40 −34%
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €13.22 €3.67 −72%
Public Power Corporation PPC €23.72 €7.44 −69%

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Ellomay Capital Ltd · Fair Value
$7.03 −213%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ellomay Capital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.03 versus a price of $21.98, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELLO?
Our model-based fair value for Ellomay Capital Ltd is $7.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $21.98.
What is the quality score of ELLO?
Ellomay Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.03 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.25, optimistic scenario $10.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ellomay Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.03, about −68% upside versus a price of $21.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.25, optimistic scenario $10.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Ellomay Capital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €42.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ellomay Capital Ltd it is $7.03 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $21.98. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ellomay Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ELLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $21.98, fair value $7.03, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($21.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.03). For Ellomay Capital Ltd the two are $14.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ellomay Capital Ltd worth?
The market values Ellomay Capital Ltd at about $278M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $21.98; our models calculate a fair value of $7.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELLO?
Our models span a range for Ellomay Capital Ltd: cautious scenario $5.25, base $7.03, optimistic $10.50 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $21.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ellomay Capital Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −16.9%, debt of 3.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELLO from its 52-week high?
Ellomay Capital Ltd trades at $21.98, about 26% below its 52-week high of $29.79 and 27% above the low of $17.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ellomay Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Adani Green Energy Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ellomay Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $21.98, calculated fair value $7.03 (−68%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELLO calculated?
We run Ellomay Capital Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ellomay Capital Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $21.98. Our model-based fair value is $7.03, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ellomay Capital Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($5.25 to $10.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ellomay Capital Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The market capitalisation of Ellomay Capital Ltd is $278M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ellomay Capital Ltd is 6.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Earnings per share at Ellomay Capital Ltd are $−1.71. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The net margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −16.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ellomay Capital Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The operating margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −31.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Revenue at Ellomay Capital Ltd is growing −2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Earnings per share at Ellomay Capital Ltd are growing +14.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) generate?
The free cash flow of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −€96.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) carry?
The net debt of Ellomay Capital Ltd is €550M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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