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Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ellomay Capital Ltd stock $6.90, price $17.42, that is 60.4% below the price, quality 16 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities US · Home Israel · ISIN IL0010826357

EC Ellomay Capital Ltd logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Ellomay Capital Ltd

ELLO · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 60% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 135.8% net margin (TTM)
Upbeat coverage
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −16.3 %/yr in EUR)
Fair value $6.90 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 16/100
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/11)
Narrow moat 21/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$35.00 $10.01 Fair Value $6.90 Feb 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.01 – $35.00 · fair‑value band $5.15 – $10.29 · the $17.42 price screens above the $6.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Ellomay Capital Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the initiation, development, construction, and production of renewable and clean energy projects in Europe, the United States, and Israel. The company owns photovoltaic (PV) plants comprising five PV plants in Spain.

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It also engages in the operation of a dual-fuel operated power plant in Ashkelon, Israel; and construction of a hydro power plant in the Manara Cliff, Israel. In addition, it operates anaerobic digestion plants.

The company was formerly known as NUR Macroprinters Ltd. and changed its name to Ellomay Capital Ltd. in April 2008. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Tel Aviv-Yafo, Israel.

Stock analysis

Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) currently trades at $17.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.90, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $5.15 (bear) to $10.29 (bull), the price of $17.42 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 16/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Ellomay Capital Ltd reported revenue of €33.9M in FY2025 versus €44.8M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€2.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $295M Micro · P/S ratio 6.74 · EPS (TTM) $−2.08 · Net margin −6.3% · Return on equity −15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 7.1% · Revenue (TTM) €43.8M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 21 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −60%, ELLO screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $5.15 Fair Value $6.90 Bull $10.29
Price $17.42 · Downside -60.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $5.11 $6.85 $10.22 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.11 $6.85 $10.22 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 16/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 6
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 10
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 10
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 21
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 35
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 24
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 9
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 32
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−27.6% (2020) → 4.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ELLO screens overvalued: fair value 60% below the price. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 196 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 16 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −60.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 135.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 7.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 10.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.83× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.88× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 6.04× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 41.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 15
FUTURE (revenue growth)51 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 70
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 47

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
BEP BEP $31.14 $72.13 +132% vs ELLO
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥29.91 ¥32.21 +8% vs ELLO
SDIC Power Holdings 600886 ¥15.81 ¥17.01 +8% vs ELLO
VERBUND AG VER €72.70 €66.45 −9% vs ELLO
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €23.19 €11.12 −52% vs ELLO
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥10.97 ¥4.45 −59% vs ELLO
Public Power Corporation PPC €23.14 €6.43 −72% vs ELLO
EDP Renewables, S.A EDPR €14.49 €3.67 −75% vs ELLO
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 148.70 kr 33.25 −78% vs ELLO
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,424 ₹170.50 −88% vs ELLO

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Ellomay Capital Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ellomay Capital Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELLO

Frequently asked questions

Is Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.90 versus a price of $17.42, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELLO?
Our model-based fair value for Ellomay Capital Ltd is $6.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.42.
What is the quality score of ELLO?
Ellomay Capital Ltd has a Quality Score of 16/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.15, optimistic scenario $10.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ellomay Capital Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.90, about 60% lower versus a price of $17.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.15, optimistic scenario $10.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Ellomay Capital Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €43.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ellomay Capital Ltd it is $6.90 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $17.42. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Ellomay Capital Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ELLO trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.42, fair value $6.90, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELLO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.90). For Ellomay Capital Ltd the two are $10.52 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ellomay Capital Ltd worth?
The market values Ellomay Capital Ltd at about $295M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $17.42; our models calculate a fair value of $6.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELLO?
Our models span a range for Ellomay Capital Ltd: cautious scenario $5.15, base $6.90, optimistic $10.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $17.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ellomay Capital Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −15.8%, debt of 3.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 16/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELLO from its 52-week high?
Ellomay Capital Ltd trades at $17.42, about 42% below its 52-week high of $29.79 and 2% above the low of $17.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ellomay Capital Ltd?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, VERBUND AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ellomay Capital Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $17.42, calculated fair value $6.90 (−60%), Quality Score 16/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELLO calculated?
We run Ellomay Capital Ltd through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $6.90 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Ellomay Capital Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.42. Our model-based fair value is $6.90, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ellomay Capital Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (16/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($5.15 to $10.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Ellomay Capital Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The market capitalisation of Ellomay Capital Ltd is $295M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ellomay Capital Ltd is 6.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Earnings per share at Ellomay Capital Ltd are $−2.08. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The net margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −6.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ellomay Capital Ltd is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
The operating margin of Ellomay Capital Ltd is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Revenue at Ellomay Capital Ltd is growing +10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO)?
Earnings per share at Ellomay Capital Ltd are growing +14.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) generate?
The free cash flow of Ellomay Capital Ltd is −€96.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ellomay Capital Ltd (ELLO) carry?
The net debt of Ellomay Capital Ltd is €550M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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