Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares $35.68, price $37.08, upside -3.8%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
13‑month range $16.11 – $102.33 · fair‑value band $24.98 – $38.22 · the $37.08 price screens above the $35.68 fair value. As of Oct 2, 2026.
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Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits.
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Elevra Lithium Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the identification, acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral assets in Australia and Canada. The company explores for lithium, graphite, and gold deposits. Its flagship property includes the North American Lithium project that consists of 41 claims and one mining lease covering an area of approximately 1,493 hectares located in Quebec, Canada. The company was formerly known as Sayona Mining Limited and changed its name to Elevra Lithium Limited in August 2025. Elevra Lithium Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR) currently trades at $37.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.68, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $55.86 per share, and 5 of the 8 models we run sit above the $37.08 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $26.89, and 3 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $24.98 (bear) to $38.22 (bull), the price of $37.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares reported revenue of A$207M in FY2026 versus A$0 in FY2023. Reported net income was A$62.4M in FY2026, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $712M · P/E ratio 14.7 · P/S ratio 4.43 · EPS (TTM) $2.52 · Net margin 30.1% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.0% · Operating margin 44.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −4%, ELVR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $24.98Fair Value $35.68Bull $38.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 3 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.6559 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 439 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score31 · Below median
Fair Value upside−2.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.6% · Above median
Return on assets4.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)44.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth77.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELVR
Frequently asked questions
Is Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $35.68 versus a price of $37.08, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ELVR?
Our model-based fair value for Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is $35.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.08.
What is the quality score of ELVR?
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $35.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $24.98, optimistic scenario $38.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $35.68, about −4% upside versus a price of $37.08 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $24.98, optimistic scenario $38.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $202M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares it is $35.68 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $37.08. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, ELVR trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.08, fair value $35.68, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELVR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($35.68). For Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares the two are $1.40 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares worth?
The market values Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares at about $712M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $37.08; our models calculate a fair value of $35.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELVR?
Our models span a range for Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares: cautious scenario $24.98, base $35.68, optimistic $38.22 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $37.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELVR?
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.7 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $35.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELVR from its 52-week high?
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares trades at $37.08, about 64% below its 52-week high of $102.33 and 56% above the low of $23.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $35.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $37.08, calculated fair value $35.68 (−4%), Quality Score 31/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELVR calculated?
We run Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $35.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $37.08. Our model-based fair value is $35.68, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The market capitalisation of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is $712M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is 4.43 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Earnings per share at Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares are $2.52 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The net margin of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is 30.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is −10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
The operating margin of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is 44.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR)?
Revenue at Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is growing +77.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR) generate?
The free cash flow of Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares is −$98.1M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares (ELVR) hold?
Sayona Mining Limited American Depository Shares holds more cash than debt, $256M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 2, 2026