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Empire Company (EMLAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Empire Company $12.68, price $33.49, upside -62.1%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Broad data
Oct 2, 2026
Empire Company
EMLAF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $12.68 · Strongly overvalued (−62.1%)
!Quality 59/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 27/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.47 – $41.28 · fair‑value band $11.57 – $15.85 · the $33.49 price screens above the $12.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.
Company profile
Empire Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food retail and related real estate businesses in Canada. It operates through two segments, Food Retailing, and Investments and Other Operations.
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Empire Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food retail and related real estate businesses in Canada. It operates through two segments, Food Retailing, and Investments and Other Operations. The company owns, affiliates, and franchises retail stores under the Sobeys, Safeway, IGA, Foodland, FreshCo, Thrifty Foods, Farm Boy, Longo's, and Lawtons Drugs brands; operates grocery e-commerce stores under the Voilà, IGA, and ThriftyFoods.com brands; and operates and/or supplies retail fuel locations. It also owns interests in the Crombie Real Estate Investment Trust, an open-ended real estate investment trust to own, operate, and develop a portfolio of grocery and pharmacy-anchored shopping centers, freestanding stores, and mixed use developments; and various equity accounted interests in Genstar that develop residential real estate properties in Ontario, Western Canada, and the United States. Empire Company Limited was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Stellarton, Canada.
Stock analysis
Empire Company (EMLAF) currently trades at $33.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.68, 62.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $51.30 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the $33.49 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.21, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.57 (bear) to $15.85 (bull), the price of $33.49 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Empire Company reported revenue of C$31.9B in FY2026 versus C$30.2B in FY2022, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$198M in FY2026, compounding −28.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $7.7B · P/E ratio 75.0 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $0.4800 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −62%, EMLAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.57
Fair Value $12.68
Bull $15.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$43.66
$63.90
$92.13
79
Growth DCF
$44.66
$63.08
$87.49
78
Owner Earnings
$26.77
$39.49
$57.22
76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$43.66
$63.90
$92.13
79
Owner Earnings
$26.77
$39.49
$57.22
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$33.99
$50.75
$71.32
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$52.34
$83.88
$119.52
74
5Y P/E Exit
$20.41
$26.23
$31.81
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$36.39
$51.97
$71.28
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$48.56
$74.03
$106.07
67
10Y P/E Exit
$28.93
$35.64
$42.76
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$4.10
$10.55
$13.73
62
PEG = 1.0
$1.98
$2.83
$3.68
55
EPV
$26.91
$31.44
$35.34
72
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$9.50
$12.67
$15.83
61
P/S Multiple
$7.69
$10.25
$12.82
56
P/B Multiple
$7.69
$10.25
$12.82
53
EV/EBIT
$42.91
$57.78
$72.66
65
EV/EBITDA
$65.68
$88.15
$110.62
66
EV/Revenue
$30.13
$43.78
$57.43
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.62
$10.21
$15.24
52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$44.66
$63.08
$87.49
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$33.99
$51.30
$70.41
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.21
$11.00
$11.33
75
ROIC Compounder
$28.25
$35.05
$42.53
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$7.38
$10.55
$13.71
66
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.6% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+5.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.9% vs −2.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.5% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.2%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.7%
EMLAF screens overvalued: fair value 62% below the price. Compare with Loblaw Companies Limited →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
- Competition Bureau And Empire Company Strike Property Controls Agreement
- Empire (TSX:EMP.A) Stock Looks Overvalued On Its 31% Three Year Run
- Empire Co Ltd (EMLAF) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Record EPS and Margin Expansion Amid ...
- Empire Company Reports Voting Results
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 71 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Staples sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Grocery Stores stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loblaw Companies Limited L | C$62.71 | C$44.76 | −29% |
| The Kroger Co KR | $60.79 | $30.42 | −50% |
| Woolworths Group WOW | A$38.35 | A$19.56 | −49% |
| Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V AD | €31.50 | €53.98 | +71% |
| George Weston Limited WN | C$101.21 | C$155.86 | +54% |
| Coles Group COL | A$23.03 | A$17.03 | −26% |
| Metro Inc MRU | C$89.95 | C$96.77 | +8% |
| Carrefour SA CA | €15.33 | €20.64 | +35% |
| CP ALL Public Company CPALL | 43.00 THB | 58.21 THB | +35% |
| Kesko Oyj KESKOB | €22.94 | €12.99 | −43% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Empire Company (EMLAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.68 versus a price of $33.49, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EMLAF?
Our model-based fair value for Empire Company is $12.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.49.
What is the quality score of EMLAF?
Empire Company has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.57, optimistic scenario $15.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Empire Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.68, about −62% upside versus a price of $33.49 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.57, optimistic scenario $15.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Empire Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$31.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Empire Company pay a dividend?
Empire Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.57% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Empire Company (EMLAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Empire Company would have to grow free cash flow by -5.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.5 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EMLAF use?
Our models discount Empire Company at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Empire Company that is -5.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Empire Company (EMLAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Empire Company grew +2.5 % a year. The price currently implies -5.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Empire Company (EMLAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Empire Company (-5.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.54 %: that much free cash flow Empire Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Empire Company it is $12.68 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $33.49. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Empire Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, EMLAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.49, fair value $12.68, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EMLAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.68). For Empire Company the two are $20.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Empire Company worth?
The market values Empire Company at about $7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $33.49; our models calculate a fair value of $12.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EMLAF?
Our models span a range for Empire Company: cautious scenario $11.57, base $12.68, optimistic $15.85 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $33.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EMLAF?
Empire Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 75.0 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Empire Company (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EMLAF from its 52-week high?
Empire Company trades at $33.49, about 10% below its 52-week high of $37.39 and 3% above the low of $32.41 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Empire Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Empire Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $33.49, calculated fair value $12.68 (−62%), Quality Score 59/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EMLAF calculated?
We run Empire Company through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Empire Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $33.49. Our model-based fair value is $12.68, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Empire Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Empire Company (EMLAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Empire Company grew +8.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin +7.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Empire Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The market capitalisation of Empire Company is $7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Empire Company is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Earnings per share at Empire Company are $0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 75.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The dividend yield of Empire Company is 2.6% (payout 179%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The net margin of Empire Company is 0.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Empire Company is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Empire Company is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Empire Company (EMLAF)?
The operating margin of Empire Company is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Revenue at Empire Company is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Empire Company (EMLAF)?
Earnings per share at Empire Company are growing −5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Empire Company (EMLAF) carry?
The net debt of Empire Company is C$6.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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